ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

Boca Raton 130mph

Sustained or gust?

Sustained, just a guess though, no science just plotting its course as I see it and showing what strength I think it could have at landfall if that occurs.

[Floridagal]

I'm in central Seminole County, just NW of Brevard. I'm probably 50ish miles inland...less probably. I've made the preparations I can. I'm terrified.

My thoughts are with my fellow Floridians.

Please don't be frightened. If you've boarded up, if your house is stout and solid, then you can ride it out. Just be aware of what is going outside. Have flashlights in case it's night and electric goes out, so you can investigate things that go "bump" in the night - BUT DO NOT GO OUTSIDE DURING THE STORM!

If a window breaks, or roof starts to go, move yourself to a safe place - inside room, with no windows. Have blankets or, pillows (mattress is better) to cover yourself and protect from flying debris. Battery powered radio to monitor when the storm has passed.

Mainly, keep your head, stay put and wait until the worst is over. Just make sure you dont ' mistake the lull of the eye with "the storm is past," and go out too soon.

Lots of scary noises, and the wind howls, but just sit tight. It DOES end!

You'll be all right. Lots of others going through what you are too, and many are also scared.

You will be all right! Praying for you now.

Floridagal, meant to add, IF you have not filled your bathtub with water, it is a safe place to go if you are very afraid of the house coming apart during the worst of it - WITH the mattress covering you from flying debris.

Michele, thanks. I think I just needed to hear every bit of that. I'm by no means new to riding out a storm, but this feels different. I have a good interior hallway that may be best bet. I'm gonna drag some mattresses there tomorrow just in case.

[Blinhart]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

They are there

Why isn't there updates in the recon thread then?

[northjaxpro]

The 11:00 p.m. track has the eyewall moving north right along the coast . The eyewall is literally hugging the coast from Brevard County right up to Jacksonville Beach on Friday.

Winds could be from 115 mph gusts to 150 potentially(that is if it intensifies to high end Cat 4) at the coast where the eyewall traverses.

[Hammy]

I dare say this is continuing to weaken at the moment--Matthew is clearly having some inner core troubles at the moment, and there seems to be a second wind maximum which could indicate this is continuing its never-quite-completed ERC.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

They are there

Why isn't there updates in the recon thread then?

Because I guess no one is posting them. I was posting this morning but figured someone else would post them this evening... I guess I'll start.

[Steve]

Sorry guys, I was frazzled. I meant to say I'm evacuating from MY mobile home TO my grandmothers.

Biggest loss from everyone who flooded out during Katrina was loss of photos. If you don't have them all electronically scanned, that's the one part of your history that can't be replaced, take 'em with you. We're more of a digital world now, but my dad was frazzled and forgot to take them (the only time he did). He ended up getting 9 feet of water in his house, and they were all destroyed. Same with videos (8mm, 16mm, VHS, etc.). Be mindful of them in an evacuation. Everything we had from videos of my mom growing up, to snow storms in the 1940's to all my generation growing up was lost - probably 30 reels and vhs tapes and thousands of photos.

[KC7NEC]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued north of the Flagler/Volusia
county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.

More: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0252.shtml

[stephen23]

Need recon in there. More a now cast than model watching ....got a feeling they are going to find a stronger Mathew

They are there

Why isn't there updates in the recon thread then?

You got me. I don't do the recon data. But it is easily looked up from tropical tidbit site using google earth

[Blinhart]

They are there

Why isn't there updates in the recon thread then?

Because I guess no one is posting them. I was posting this morning but figured someone else would post them this evening... I guess I'll start.

Thanks, I don't quite have that figured out yet.

[sponger]

Really don't see any other choice than to board up tomorrow. Pass is too close to Western Saint Augustine and if the eye goes over or West of us it would be to late to do anything about it. Gusts to 140 or gusts to 70. Big difference. Game on tomorrow.

[MGC]

Matthew continues to look better on IR sat loop. Looks to be slowly intensifying. Tomorrow it should start riding with the Gulf Stream to the north. Looks like near ideal conditions for further intensification. Major disaster in the making for the Florida east coast. A1A might get washed away in places......MGC

[SeaBrz_FL]

One more reason to evacuate west from Brevard - Governor Rick Scott has just suspended all tolls on the BeachLine (Hwy 528)

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm actually surprised that the NHC doesn't think this will increase more than about 15 mph from its current strength given the very favorable environment. And they are saying that's at the upper end of the intensity guidance. Very puzzled about that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressure's down to 958-959mb per recon.

[JaxGator]

I dare say this is continuing to weaken at the moment--Matthew is clearly having some inner core troubles at the moment, and there seems to be a second wind maximum which could indicate this is continuing its never-quite-completed ERC.

I don't know about that. Recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quad.

[La Sirena]

Sorry guys, I was frazzled. I meant to say I'm evacuating from MY mobile home TO my grandmothers.

Biggest loss from everyone who flooded out during Katrina was loss of photos. If you don't have them all electronically scanned, that's the one part of your history that can't be replaced, take 'em with you. We're more of a digital world now, but my dad was frazzled and forgot to take them (the only time he did). He ended up getting 9 feet of water in his house, and they were all destroyed. Same with videos (8mm, 16mm, VHS, etc.). Be mindful of them in an evacuation. Everything we had from videos of my mom growing up, to snow storms in the 1940's to all my generation growing up was lost - probably 30 reels and vhs tapes and thousands of photos.

That's the first thing we packed when hurricane season began! We put together our bug out boxes of memories that couldn't be replaced. Our home is in a high risk storm surge/flooding area. We knew we had to make decisions. My husband's from Alaska and had a 25 year career in the military....lots of things that can't be replaced. Very good point my friend.

[AutoPenalti]

Pressure's down to 958-959mb per recon.

Wow, barely a few hours.

[Steve]

I dare say this is continuing to weaken at the moment--Matthew is clearly having some inner core troubles at the moment, and there seems to be a second wind maximum which could indicate this is continuing its never-quite-completed ERC.

Maybe some core issues, but I think you can see the eye clearing out. It's about go-time though I am hesitant to guess how low the pressure can go from here (be it 950, 940, 935 or whatever). Eye is back, and it's in pretty good shape if not perfect yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[ObsessedMiami]

I hope the NHC finally extends the hurricane warning to Dade, seeing as so many of you are throwing a Miami landfall out of your hats.