ATL: HERMINE - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Models can change back and forth,to me it is most interesting that the experts at the NHC are saying that conditions are conducive
for development

[weathaguyry]

6z GFS is starting to come out

[Frank2]

06Z GFS showed very weak system reaching almost reaching FL but retrograding NE...

[cycloneye]

06z develops north of Bahamas but no threat to Florida.

[cycloneye]

Moving NE at 288 hours as a Hurricane.

[N2FSU]

This is about as close as it gets to Florida on the 06Z run:

[JtSmarts]

Looks like the development of 90 opens things up for 99 to move more northerly instead of into the SE US.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the development of 90 opens things up for 99 to move more northerly instead of into the SE US.

Not necessarily, 99L looks to start moving west some towards the Northern Bahamas and Florida before being picked up by an approaching shortwave in Canada.

Still 10 days out though.

[Dean4Storms]

LOL....GFS back to a hurricane east of Florida!

[USTropics]

Some of the 00z guidance

00z Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison:


00z Ensemble Tropical Genesis Prob %:

[JtSmarts]

Looks like the development of 90 opens things up for 99 to move more northerly instead of into the SE US.

Not necessarily, 99L looks to start moving west some towards the Northern Bahamas and Florida before being picked up by an approaching shortwave in Canada.

Still 10 days out though.

Going to be very interesting to watch all this unfold, that shortwave wasn't there in previous runs (over the last two days) was it?

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the development of 90 opens things up for 99 to move more northerly instead of into the SE US.

Not necessarily, 99L looks to start moving west some towards the Northern Bahamas and Florida before being picked up by an approaching shortwave in Canada.

Still 10 days out though.

Going to be very interesting to watch all this unfold, that shortwave wasn't there in previous runs (over the last two days) was it?

GEFS Ensembles aren't bullish so I wouldn't buy into this at all.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Buy into which part? that gfs shows this developing as it's moving NE out into the atlantic or showing a trough picking it up? The latest run looks exactly like the 0z Canadian. Weak low heading nw, stalling, then developing as a trough comes in and sweeps it out to sea.

[NDG]

Not sure if anybody noticed that the 0z Euro has Fiona's vorticity absorbing 99L, which has no where to go as it gets trapped underneath under the East Coast Ridge which will be back in full force.
BTW, the Euro dropped its crazy idea of developing a mid and upper level low west of Bermuda, once again, lol.

[northjaxpro]

Still about 10 days out, so lots can still change. The latest runs long range are developing a break in the ridge late in the period. This may be the saving grace for Florida and the rest of the CONUS if the trough materializes. HOWEVER, this is a HUGE IF given we are still about 10 days out.

There are simply too many uncertainties folks this far out as you would anticipate. This is why in most instances I usually like to wait until we lock in the 5 to 7 day period to formulate better what the models are doing with these cyclones.

[SeGaBob]

I think the Gfs has it right this time... A recurve a few hundred miles off of Florida makes sense. The other models will pick up that idea I bet.

[northjaxpro]

EURO still shows very pronounced ridging, so the GFS idea of developing a trough through the ridge, well I will leave it for you all to debate it.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: EURO still shows very pronounced ridging, so the GFS idea of developing a trough through the ridge, well I will leave it for you all to debate it.

Yep and the 00z ECM EPS Probability of a TD forming out there east of Florida between 192-240 hours rises to 50% and a TS to 20%.

When I say rising that is compared to the 12Z run before it where the % was 20% chance of a TD forming.

[NDG]

:uarrow: EURO still shows very pronounced ridging, so the GFS idea of developing a trough through the ridge, well I will leave it for you all to debate it.

Through day 10 both the GFS and Euro are fairly close, the both show the ridge across the eastern US, through day 7 they both have in similar position, days 7-10 the Euro has is a bit closer centered over the east coast while the GFS has it over the TN valley, but since the Euro doesn't go past 10 days we don't know if it agrees with the GFS of developing a large trough across the eastern US in the 10-14 day range, so there's nothing to debate on

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity Guidance.

06z Intensity Guidance.