ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

I dare say this is continuing to weaken at the moment--Matthew is clearly having some inner core troubles at the moment, and there seems to be a second wind maximum which could indicate this is continuing its never-quite-completed ERC.

I don't know about that. Recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quad.

89kt this pass vs 94kt earlier. Pressure is down but the inner core isn't doing well, at least in the short term.

[Alyono]

What concerns me is there has never been a Category 3 or higher storm make landfall north of West Palm Beach. Climatology and 150+ years of history says if this is going to landfall as a major it will be somewhere in Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties.

Jeanne says hi

[MaineWeatherNut]

Pressure's down to 958-959mb per recon.

It was 958.5 with a 18kt wind... Reduce the pressure 1mb for every 10kts so it would put it in the 956 to 957mb range.

[Alyono]

I dare say this is continuing to weaken at the moment--Matthew is clearly having some inner core troubles at the moment, and there seems to be a second wind maximum which could indicate this is continuing its never-quite-completed ERC.

I don't know about that. Recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quad.

89kt this pass vs 94kt earlier. Pressure is down but the inner core isn't doing well, at least in the short term.

don't need recon when we have surface obs

[terrapintransit]

This part pretty much says it all...

...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued north of the Flagler/Volusia
county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.

More: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0252.shtml

[dukeblue219]

Pressure's down to 958-959mb per recon.

It was 958.5 with a 18kt wind... Reduce the pressure 1mb for every 10kts so it would put it in the 956 to 957mb range.

The center dropsondes have been consistently 1-2 mb above the extrapolated values all evening. Wouldn't surprise me to see the dropsonde at 959 to 960.

[meriland23]

Here is what he looks like right now

[northjaxpro]

Matthew continues to look better on IR sat loop. Looks to be slowly intensifying. Tomorrow it should start riding with the Gulf Stream to the north. Looks like near ideal conditions for further intensification. Major disaster in the making for the Florida east coast. A1A might get washed away in places......MGC

Hey MGC. Yeah I and many people am staring down this beast cyclone with much anxiety. Extremely worried about what is about to come our way in about 40 hours from now.

[terrapintransit]

This part pretty much says it all...

...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued north of the Flagler/Volusia
county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.

More: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0252.shtml

[Sanibel]

Baracoa, Cuba took a good hit and had a lot of rubble and damage.

[OverlandHurricane]

Any word from FLDOT/FHP about implementing contraflow tomorrow on the Bee Line, Alligator Alley, or I-10 west out of Jacksonville?

[SunnyThoughts]

[drezee]

99959 27808 13011

Drop is 958...

[FireRat]

my guess...160 mph passes 10 miles east of Palm Beach, 922 mb.

Looks like a donut tonight, scary as can be for us here in FL. I am staying in my folks boarded up house praying for the best, and ready for the worst should Matt make a horrible shift west. I have a feeling we will wake to a monster tomorrow.

Hang in there my fellow Floridians, do not turn your back on this one!

[stephen23]

Pressure's down to 958-959mb per recon.

It was 958.5 with a 18kt wind... Reduce the pressure 1mb for every 10kts so it would put it in the 956 to 957mb range.

I go with 958

[ToxicTiger]

Written by University of Florida Athletics

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- We are working closely with local, state and University officials as well as the Southeastern Conference office to monitor the progress of Hurricane Matthew and its potential impact on campus and the safety of the fans.

As of 5 p.m. on Wednesday, the game is still scheduled to be played on Saturday at 11 a.m. CT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. A final decision on the start time of the game will be made by 12 p.m. CT on Thursday as we continue to monitor the storm.

The game will not be moved out of Gainesville.

This is probably one of the most reckless and irresponsible decisions that I have ever seen from a public official. This decision will divert possibly a thousand first responders away from where they will desperately be needed. University of Florida President W. Kent Fuchs should be immediately fired for incompetence and reckless endangerment. Thoughts?

[Blown Away]

What concerns me is there has never been a Category 3 or higher storm make landfall north of West Palm Beach. Climatology and 150+ years of history says if this is going to landfall as a major it will be somewhere in Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties.

Jeanne says hi

Actually you need to say Vero to FL/GA line... This would be historic if Matt officially landfalls north of Vero to FL/GA line...

[stephen23]

Pressure's down to 958-959mb per recon.

It was 958.5 with a 18kt wind... Reduce the pressure 1mb for every 10kts so it would put it in the 956 to 957mb range.

I go with 958

Vortex discussion says 959 with 11kt wind

[Evenstar]

One potential major concern. If this does come inland near Palm Beach, tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee could be very bad

Tidal surge over Lake Okeechobee? Now that's funny. Swamp creatures, you need to evacuate!!!

It's not as funny as you think. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

It's as funny as the toothy grins of alligators and water moccasins...
ew.ick.ugh.

[hurricaneCW]

Wouldn't shock me to see it become a strong category four in under 12 hrs. Surface winds will take time to respond to decreasing pressures.