ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

well on its way now. if convection can wrap around to the NW side could see much more deepening also a slight shift east.

[tigerz3030]

My concern for FL residents is this, most have prepared for a tropical storm or low cat 1 hurricane. Hermine is now taking on a classic "fist" shape on satellite, shear continues to decrease, outflow is expanding and it's becoming more symmetrical. These all point to continued steady to quick strengthening today and up to landfall. A cat 2 is very possible imo and many would not have time to prepare and/or evacuate if necessary.

Exactly. Great post. I am really concerned for those in the hurricane warning area.in the Big Bend region. Hope they prepared for the worse. We say that all the time, but it is so important to plan for worst case scenarios. Hermine is intensifying at a decent rate this morning and it sure looks like the cyclone may end up.being stronger than the NHC had indicated the last couple of days.

But we had models earlier showing this potential for.a rathet strong hurricane in Apalachee Bay. So it is possible to see Hermine ramp into close to a Cat 2 storm. I hope Hermine is running out of time for this before landfalll

I'm thinking we start feeling Hermines effects by dinner tonight through mid afternoon tomorrow in St Augustine.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, this thing is starting to really move, already looks close to being due West of Tampa.

[Dean4Storms]

Hard to be real sure without Recon in there but it sure looks like Hermine is currently moving almost due North on Sat. loop presentation.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/771330051400925185

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave from an hour or so ago.. getting pretty close.

[Laser30033003]

Is Tampa going to get into that rain band I see on radar?? Or will it move North of us???

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/771330051400925185

I wonder if he meant to type SE quadrant, not the NE quadrant.

[Aric Dunn]

Hard to be real sure without Recon in there but it sure looks like Hermine is currently moving almost due North on Sat. loop presentation.

could be as the convection wraps around we will get a pull to the north then a quick slow down( or small loop) as it embeds itself further into the convection then move back on a NE path. just have to see how the convective pattern evolves.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Last vortex remark

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL MORE CIRCULAR 18 NM DIA OPEN W
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST SEMICIRCLE

So I'd take it that the center is tightening up significantly more than when I went to bed around 1:30

[GCANE]

To put it more in meterological terms, its sucking in a ton of juice

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[NDG]

Wow, this thing is starting to really move, already looks close to being due West of Tampa.

Yeah, it picked up forward speed, latest GFS has landfall around 2-3 AM.

[Aric Dunn]

still very surprised there are no watches out for tampa area given the extent of the eastern band.. they will likely get at least minimal TS.. but oh well..

[artist]

NHC Director Knabb just said please, PLEASE heed evacuation orders due to storm surge.

[Kazmit]

The first hurricane to hit Florida since Wilma? Maybe. It looks like it'll transition into a somewhat strong post-tropical storm while emerging from NC. Brings back Sandy memories.

[MGC]

Hermine has an excellent shot at becoming a hurricane later today. There should be a significant surge event for the big bend area of Florida. If you are located there and near the coast I'd suggest leaving. Moving water destroys all in its path......MGC

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC Director Knabb just said please, PLEASE heed evacuation orders due to storm surge.

As I recall, these are some of the most surge prone areas in the country

[SunnyThoughts]

http://weartv.com/weather/radar interactive radar

[artist]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents
Here is the storm surge map. And you really need to zoom in to see the different colors for the amount of surge. There are a number of areas showing 6+ feet of surge (orange)possible

NHC Director Knabb just said please, PLEASE heed evacuation orders due to storm surge.

As I recall, these are some of the most surge prone areas in the country

[BRweather]

just woke up to see recon and wow..what not expecting that