ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Reminds me of Rita at her peak..

Don't want to hear her name either.

[ConvergenceZone]

The more I think about,it I'm thinking that if the NHC really thought this had a chance to be a CAT5 they would've mentioned it in their latest discussion. They are going as high as 130 MPH and even that they say is on the upper end of the intensity guidance. So they may be thinking closer to 120 or 125mph

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Matthew set so many records already. It is the longest lived major hurricane in October.

[Hammy]

Some people saying it's weakening. Other say it's intensifying.

Idk what fantasy those who says it weakening live in because that's clearly not the case. Watch IR loops and you can easily see it's gradually intensifying.

Winds measured from recon say otherwise. I think Matthew will likely drop down to Cat 2 overnight while it consolidates its inner core before ramping up tomorrow afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to 958 with a closed eye, but no sign of wind increases.

[floridasun78]

i live in Miami i still watch Matthew make sure go north of Andros if go bit south we dade feel stronger wind north we feel ts wind

[Sanibel]

GFS slightly East. That should be it.

[Evil Jeremy]

I have put my evacuation plans into motion.

Tampa sounds nice this time of week!

[Blinhart]

Some people saying it's weakening. Other say it's intensifying.

Idk what fantasy those who says it weakening live in because that's clearly not the case. Watch IR loops and you can easily see it's gradually intensifying.

Winds measured from recon say otherwise. I think Matthew will likely drop down to Cat 2 overnight while it consolidates its inner core before ramping up tomorrow afternoon.

101 Kts from recon

[LSU2001]

I think what we are seeing is the storm is slowly intensifying (as indicated by pressure drops) but the winds will take awhile to catch up with pressure. I see no indication that this is weakening or have any major core issues. It looks to me that the eye wall has closed off and convection has fully wrapped around the eye. To say this storm is anything but showing signs of strengthening is disingenuous.
JMHO,
Tim

[southmdwatcher]

Good luck to all in central and south Florida, Matthew seems to be pretty much finished reorganizing..it is now up to how the deepening phase progresses.....my estimate at landfall is 145 to 155mph and just north of West Palm Beach and will have a major impact on Lake Okeechobee, the central coastal area and Orlando on its way back up to Jacksonville and Savannah....Miami area needs to stay on guard for any further west shifts tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

Some people saying it's weakening. Other say it's intensifying.

Idk what fantasy those who says it weakening live in because that's clearly not the case. Watch IR loops and you can easily see it's gradually intensifying.

Winds measured from recon say otherwise. I think Matthew will likely drop down to Cat 2 overnight while it consolidates its inner core before ramping up tomorrow afternoon.

Yea, a high end cat 2, or cat 3 is probably the most likely scenario prior to landfall, but that is still a pretty strong storm

[EquusStorm]

I guess it could pull a Gustav/Ike and keep a disrupted inner core all the way from Cuba to the US, but satellite trends make me think that's unlikely and it will be a bit stronger than either of those upon US closest approach/landfall. Still shocking eight years later that neither of those were majors at US landfall despite being rather violent upon striking Cuba.

[dukeblue219]

Some people saying it's weakening. Other say it's intensifying.

Idk what fantasy those who says it weakening live in because that's clearly not the case. Watch IR loops and you can easily see it's gradually intensifying.

Anyone can see that the storm has a great satellite presentation. Strengthening makes great sense from here. But sometimes it just doesn't happen right away, and recon has shown than all night. So, what's happening is half the board is saying "wow, it looks amazing, look how strong it is" and the other half is saying "um, recon keeps penetrating the eyewall and finding ~70-100kt surface winds depending on the quadrant."

Just one of those things. Totally wouldn't surprise me either way to wake up tomorrow and find a 140mph beast or a 110mph storm with a ragged eye.

[Weatherhorse]

Written by University of Florida Athletics

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- We are working closely with local, state and University officials as well as the Southeastern Conference office to monitor the progress of Hurricane Matthew and its potential impact on campus and the safety of the fans.

As of 5 p.m. on Wednesday, the game is still scheduled to be played on Saturday at 11 a.m. CT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. A final decision on the start time of the game will be made by 12 p.m. CT on Thursday as we continue to monitor the storm.

The game will not be moved out of Gainesville.

This is probably one of the most reckless and irresponsible decisions that I have ever seen from a public official. This decision will divert possibly a thousand first responders away from where they will desperately be needed. University of Florida President W. Kent Fuchs should be immediately fired for incompetence and reckless endangerment. Thoughts?

Absolutely disgusting. Even if there are ZERO effects there a MAJOR portion of the State will be devastated and in full disaster response. You can tell right from the statment they are thinking of this in a bubble and not in the scale if reality. VERY DISAPPOINTED.

Yeah, I'm disappointed as well, but the administration may change their mind at the last minute. I hope they do reschedule--in addition to diverting potential help and resources from needed areas, the game would increase the number of people traveling in hazardous conditions and may cause people to think they don't need to worry about preparing for this storm.

[Hammy]

Idk what fantasy those who says it weakening live in because that's clearly not the case. Watch IR loops and you can easily see it's gradually intensifying.

Winds measured from recon say otherwise. I think Matthew will likely drop down to Cat 2 overnight while it consolidates its inner core before ramping up tomorrow afternoon.

Yea, a high end cat 2, or cat 3 is probably the most likely scenario prior to landfall, but that is still a pretty strong storm

Oh I fully expect this to strengthen before landfall, I just think it'll be about 6-12 hours before that happens but it may be pretty quick once it happens, at least in the remaining time before any landfall that may occur.

[Scorpion]

In Jupiter and never been more excited and scared at the same time. Right in the center of the path.

[Dean4Storms]

It is moving over very warm waters, lessening shear and organizing structurally faster than most models had it at this point. I see nothing over the next 36 hours to keep it from strengthening at least steadily except possibly land interaction on its western flank as it nears Florida. I think it is highly likely Mathew reaches 145mph winds and pressure back down near 940 mb before landfall, mountains of Haiti and Cuba only lowered it to a Cat 3 at 115mph. Unless it landfalls with the entire Center I see no reason for Mathew to not be devastating to the FL Coast from near Ft Lauderdale northward thru Jax!

[ObsessedMiami]

I hope the NHC finally extends the hurricane warning to Dade, seeing as so many of you are throwing a Miami landfall out of your hats.

too late now to have any effect even if they do

I know. I was being kind of sarcastic about all these landfall "predictions" for a cat 4 and 5 into Miami that were being offered up. Hope your generator fired up easily!

[stephen23]

Idk what fantasy those who says it weakening live in because that's clearly not the case. Watch IR loops and you can easily see it's gradually intensifying.

Winds measured from recon say otherwise. I think Matthew will likely drop down to Cat 2 overnight while it consolidates its inner core before ramping up tomorrow afternoon.

101 Kts from recon

Where are you seeing 101kt winds?. I see a 101kt flight level wind per latest vortex but the max surface wind was 89kt