ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

The western jog continues. Very little northern component the last 2 hours on the NASA satellite loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Just stair stepping around the high. Looks right on track unless that last wobble continued.

[Blinhart]

EricBlake1242 secs
@Wxmanms1 @MichaelRLowry and the 700 mb height fell 36 meters in 100 minutes. That isn't good.

Hummm...that isn't good at all. Will try to post storm reports until it gets too dangerous to do so.

I have a sister and Uncle that live in Jacksonville, one on each side of the river, I know my sister (near Orange Park) is gonna be staying put and I don't know if my Uncle is in town or not (he works all over the world) but hope everything is fine for them.

[Hellicon]

 https://twitter.com/coryshelton21/status/783878712039206912




About that.

[Sanibel]

I think some people are mistaking the top of the eye in the CDO with the surface center.

[AdamFirst]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people on this board wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run. That is an extremely irresponsible thing to say.

[GeneratorPower]

The western jog continues. Very little northern component the last 2 hours on the NASA satellite loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

With all the talk of worst case scenarios, a Cat 4/5 into an underwarned major metro area where evacuations are deliberately being prevented? That would be worst case.

[KC7NEC]

If this pulls a Charley and heads into Miami-Dade as a Cat 4 with no Hurricane Warning. Heads are going to roll at the National Hurricane Center.

And they need to, don't understand why they don't increase it to a Hurricane Warning, that way the businesses could get everything put in place.

The watches and warnings are sadly mostly formulaic. If speed X at location Y at time Z then issue A, B or C. They do not account for population, types of constructions in region, transportation, evacuations. They have no 'human' factor. I wish that even if the NHC didn't that locally at NWS or Counties they would look at factors specific to their situation.

[Blinhart]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Written by University of Florida Athletics

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- We are working closely with local, state and University officials as well as the Southeastern Conference office to monitor the progress of Hurricane Matthew and its potential impact on campus and the safety of the fans.

As of 5 p.m. on Wednesday, the game is still scheduled to be played on Saturday at 11 a.m. CT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. A final decision on the start time of the game will be made by 12 p.m. CT on Thursday as we continue to monitor the storm.

The game will not be moved out of Gainesville.

This is probably one of the most reckless and irresponsible decisions that I have ever seen from a public official. This decision will divert possibly a thousand first responders away from where they will desperately be needed. University of Florida President W. Kent Fuchs should be immediately fired for incompetence and reckless endangerment. Thoughts?

Absolutely disgusting. Even if there are ZERO effects there a MAJOR portion of the State will be devastated and in full disaster response. You can tell right from the statment they are thinking of this in a bubble and not in the scale if reality. VERY DISAPPOINTED.

This sounds like something that could result in major traffic impediments to relief/cleanup efforts.

They're being ridiculous about this. Do they expect to play a game with no power? What about possible water and sewage issues? How many ticket holders would actually show up? I'm sure they'll have more important things on their minds.

[Blinhart]

If this pulls a Charley and heads into Miami-Dade as a Cat 4 with no Hurricane Warning. Heads are going to roll at the National Hurricane Center.

And they need to, don't understand why they don't increase it to a Hurricane Warning, that way the businesses could get everything put in place.

The watches and warnings are sadly mostly formulaic. If speed X at location Y at time Z then issue A, B or C. They do not account for population, types of constructions in region, transportation, evacuations. They have no 'human' factor. I wish that even if the NHC didn't that locally at NWS or Counties they would look at factors specific to their situation.

I completely agree, all those yachts that are gonna get destroyed, all the other stuff, human factor needs to be put into this now a days.

[AdamFirst]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

But the Hurricane Center and Model Guidance, as well as actual current motion from aircraft reconnaissance, doesn't. This storm is on track.

[GeneratorPower]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

Benchmark is Andros Island. Left of Andros, watch out. Right over or right of Andros, on track.

[ALhurricane]

If this pulls a Charley and heads into Miami-Dade as a Cat 4 with no Hurricane Warning. Heads are going to roll at the National Hurricane Center.

And they need to, don't understand why they don't increase it to a Hurricane Warning, that way the businesses could get everything put in place.

The watches and warnings are sadly mostly formulaic. If speed X at location Y at time Z then issue A, B or C. They do not account for population, types of constructions in region, transportation, evacuations. They have no 'human' factor. I wish that even if the NHC didn't that locally at NWS or Counties they would look at factors specific to their situation.

There is a lot more than you realize that goes into it.

[Blinhart]

And they need to, don't understand why they don't increase it to a Hurricane Warning, that way the businesses could get everything put in place.

The watches and warnings are sadly mostly formulaic. If speed X at location Y at time Z then issue A, B or C. They do not account for population, types of constructions in region, transportation, evacuations. They have no 'human' factor. I wish that even if the NHC didn't that locally at NWS or Counties they would look at factors specific to their situation.

There is a lot more than you realize that goes into it.

Not really.

[SapphireSea]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

Historical patterns? If it were late Aug, Early Sept I would believe you. Pattern and path do not seem to sync up to me. Now that the threat materilized I guess next 8 hours will be key. If it slows down and stays NW it will likely keep east, if it slows down but heads further west then it may indicate a change. If it stays same speed and more west then obviously something is going on. But likely going to be on NHC track line.

[Hurricaneman]

what happens if Matthew loops around and give some sections of Florida round 2 of hurricane conditions

[wxmann_91]

Recon fixes continue to show a NW motion.

I don't wanna drop the word "wish-casting" but there's a lot of people wanting to pull this into Miami-Dade, primarily because of the HRRR mesoscale run.

I'm not doing it just because of HRRR, historical patterns and current conditions just tell me that it is going to Miami-Dade.

Which historical patterns? Do you have 500mb analogs? Currents trends are near or slightly north of guidance which points well north of Miami-Dade.

Nothing against you personally, but because so many people are getting information off these boards right now, all claims that deviate significantly from official forecasts should be substantiated by sound meteorological reasoning.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

[RL3AO]

Not really.

Yes really. You're dead wrong. Every watch/warning issued by NHC is coordinated with local emergency management and local NWS offices.

[tatertawt24]

Literally looks like somebody poked a hole in it.

[ALhurricane]

The watches and warnings are sadly mostly formulaic. If speed X at location Y at time Z then issue A, B or C. They do not account for population, types of constructions in region, transportation, evacuations. They have no 'human' factor. I wish that even if the NHC didn't that locally at NWS or Counties they would look at factors specific to their situation.

There is a lot more than you realize that goes into it.

Not really.

Lol. Considering that's what I do, I should know.