ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terrapintransit]

I'm from Harrisbrurg, Pa... Been keeping an eye on it all along. Looks kind of spooky from some of those model runs showing a sharp left hook into us

I'm starting to think people in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions are not aware that this could be a real threat up their way

[GCANE]

Core now up to 2C

[LCfromFL]

Here is the link to the NWS Briefing Situation Overview for Hermine: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

[Noles2016]

Can almost make out the center on TPA long range RAD. Nasty squall bands just offshore Pinellas Beach - advancing steadily toward shore. I'd expect TS conditions along the Fl west coast by this afternoon.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

I'm along the pinellas beaches, winds are picking up with light drizzle.

Based on that radar loop, it looks like it would come in to the SW of Tally if it stays on its current trajectory. That's more or less Tate's Hell/Apalachicola Forests or between Port St. Joe/Cape San Blas and maybe Sopchoppy/Panacea/Alligator Pointe.

That would not be pretty for Wakulla County...

[otowntiger]

I expect that Tallahassee is going to be in for a good blow the way its looking. They could get borderline hurricane gusts which definitely will take out a lot of big old trees. Hope they are ready. Of course just my opinion and things can change but just in case I hope and expect the word is out up there to batten down.

[weathaguyry]

I'm from Harrisbrurg, Pa... Been keeping an eye on it all along. Looks kind of spooky from some of those model runs showing a sharp left hook into us

I'm starting to think people in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions are not aware that this could be a real threat up their way

I am watching this too with all of my life and I will report from The South Shore of Long Island if Hermine decides to pay us a visit

[JaxGator]

Morning everyone. I see Hermine is making up for lost time pretty quickly. I'll do my best to update on any storm reports as the storm approaches along with fellow Northeast Florida posters. For anyone in the path, be safe and heed all warnings from the NHC and NWS. I've been visiting family in St. Augustine and it's calm with a light breeze. The Intercoasal is like glass and almost still.

Yeah your up by me. Weather will prob start getting crappy later this evening. Kinda exciting huh!

Yeah, it'll be interesting for sure!

[Steve]

I'm along the pinellas beaches, winds are picking up with light drizzle.

Based on that radar loop, it looks like it would come in to the SW of Tally if it stays on its current trajectory. That's more or less Tate's Hell/Apalachicola Forests or between Port St. Joe/Cape San Blas and maybe Sopchoppy/Panacea/Alligator Pointe.

That would not be pretty for Wakulla County...

You down that way Noles? I worked the sale of a couple of properties down in Crawfordville and Panacea recently, so I took another trip through there a couple months back.

[Evil Jeremy]

Doing final preps in Jacksonville. Not expecting a big wind threat here but torrential rains is a huge possibility. Should be a fun day!

[Bizzles]

I'm from Harrisbrurg, Pa... Been keeping an eye on it all along. Looks kind of spooky from some of those model runs showing a sharp left hook into us

I'm starting to think people in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions are not aware that this could be a real threat up their way

I think once it's done w/ Florida (and all the nuts on here...J/K! Love you guys) we'll see our area pick up.

[ronjon]

Here is the link to the NWS Briefing Situation Overview for Hermine: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

WoW..that is scary based on simulated RADAR from HRRR model.

[BucMan2]

ronjon -how far inland Tampa can TS winds be expected?

[northjaxpro]

Morning everyone. I see Hermine is making up for lost time pretty quickly. I'll do my best to update on any storm reports as the storm approaches along with fellow Northeast Florida posters. For anyone in the path, be safe and heed all warnings from the NHC and NWS. I've been visiting family in St. Augustine and it's calm with a light breeze. The Intercoastal is like glass and almost still.

I echo your sentiments about this JaxGator. It will very busy times for me from now right on til this storm threat passes. If I am not able to come on the forum, JaxGator, Evil Jeremy, and Tigerz3030, who is down near St.Augustine, I am sure will keep everyone abreastef to what is going on in this region. So I will try to get cme in witho give updates from the Jax area and Northeast FL region, especially late tonight and Friday morning timeframe.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is quickly approaching the core of Hermine but of course we lose extrapolated pressures right as they get close. Should get a center fix within 30 minutes.

[deltadog03]

To be honest, this looks like a race. She is going to get to the coast before Shear starts to take over, or will it hit it before landfall? My guess is she makes it to the coast first. Look at that blob that is west of TPA...its starting to fall apart somewhat and its tops are blowing off. Almost like Hermine is shedding her skin..lol

[Noles2016]

Based on that radar loop, it looks like it would come in to the SW of Tally if it stays on its current trajectory. That's more or less Tate's Hell/Apalachicola Forests or between Port St. Joe/Cape San Blas and maybe Sopchoppy/Panacea/Alligator Pointe.

That would not be pretty for Wakulla County...

You down that way Noles? I worked the sale of a couple of properties down in Crawfordville and Panacea recently, so I took another trip through there a couple months back.

Yup, "downtown" Crawfordville. My parents live near Shell Point, Oyster Bay to be exact. We are ready!

[artist]

Not ronjon but here is a graphic for you of what winds could be through Tampa. It shows 40% to 50% chance of at least ts winds throughout Tampa. Hope it helps.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

ronjon -how far inland Tampa can TS winds be expected?

[BucMan2]

Artist- that's awesome- thank you

Craig

[SeGaBob]

Looks like I'll be on the weak side now so how am I supposed to get 4-8 inches of rain? The further east it keeps going the less I get...

[GCANE]

Wow, CAPE 5000 feeding this.

Convective cap over FL just about lifted.

Looks like Taylor, Jefferson, Wakulla counties could be in for hit from a strong cell in about an hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html