ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Understood,

But that plan should have been put in place days ago makes no sense at all now I agree.

[psyclone]

If NWS Miami wanted the hurricane warning extended southward, it would literally be a 50 foot walk and they'd tell the specialist and it would be so.

Putting Miami-Dade under a HW would almost certainly result in a few deaths and injuries. Evacuations are known to be dangerous, on the roads and elsewhere. Therefore it is prudent to NOT warn an area if it isn't needed.

But it is needed by my unofficial reckoning.

You act as if people in Miami Dade can't prepare for a hurricane unless someone places them under a warning. Get real. Miami has been advertised to have some hurricane wind risk for days. it's just lower than areas to the north so the smart people decided their probability was insufficient to justify a warning. Good. that's the way it should be. I trust the smart people. they may not be perfect but they're damn good. And i'm sure the people of Miami Dade realize they're on the edge and have been preparing accordingly. I recall folks freaking out ( I was one of them ) over the lack of a warning for a part of southeast NC during Arthur... I mean the eye was right beside the region...but they wound up with strong TS conditions so the lack of a hurricane warning was ultimately accurate. There are few things that generate complacency as efficiently as unneeded warnings. And let's face it...high end TS conditions are no joke. Sustained at 60 with gusts to 75 or 80mph is a high end TS...serious weather.

[Blinhart]

The US all year has been having either storms considered once in 100 years or even 500 years. This is another reason I think this storm will do something that hasn't been seen in modern times. Yes I know hitting the Georgia coast line will be one of the rarest things ever, but going against all models is another.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well I can tell you first hand I have seen zero no one with shutters up here in my area. So based on the choice not to post watches or warnings, and they are wrong many people will die, and more so than from a late evacuation order.

[Blinhart]

Putting Miami-Dade under a HW would almost certainly result in a few deaths and injuries. Evacuations are known to be dangerous, on the roads and elsewhere. Therefore it is prudent to NOT warn an area if it isn't needed.

But it is needed by my unofficial reckoning.

You act as if people in Miami Dade can't prepare for a hurricane unless someone places them under a warning. Get real. Miami has been advertised to have some hurricane wind risk for days. it's just lower than areas to the north so the smart people decided their probability was insufficient to justify a warning. Good. that's the way it should be. I trust the smart people. they may not be perfect but they're damn good. And i'm sure the people of Miami Dade realize they're on the edge and have been preparing accordingly. I recall folks freaking out ( I was one of them ) over the lack of a warning for a part of southeast NC during Arthur... I mean the eye was right beside the region...but they wound up with strong TS conditions so the lack of a hurricane warning was ultimately accurate. There are few things that generate complacency as efficiently as unneeded warnings. And let's face it...high end TS conditions are no joke. Sustained at 60 with gusts to 75 or 80mph is a high end TS...serious weather.

I'm sorry if you thought I was being rude, just think it is necessary, but I will let the professionals handle, hoping they are correct.

[HurricaneEric]

Well I can tell you first hand I have seen zero no one with shutters up here in my area. So based on the choice not to post watches or warnings, and they are wrong many people will die, and more so than from a late evacuation order.

Depends where you live. Almost all the houses in my neighborhood have shutters up.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Really glad someone decided to, storm is looking very good on SAT right now.

[marionstorm]

Alyono says in the model thread that Canadian makes landfall in Florida. How does Canadian model do in the 48hr period as compared to GFS or Euro? Thank you pro mets for keeping us updated.

[psyclone]

Well I can tell you first hand I have seen zero no one with shutters up here in my area. So based on the choice not to post watches or warnings, and they are wrong many people will die, and more so than from a late evacuation order.

Depends where you live. Almost all the houses in my neighborhood have shutters up.

I'd have shutters up if I were in Dade. Good luck down there.

[1900hurricane]

CMG party.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Hurricaneeric.

[ALhurricane]

Extrapolated pressure down to 952. Here we go...

[SunnyThoughts]

Extrapolated pressure down to 952. Here we go...

Yeah was just getting ready to post it

043530 2331N 07629W 6963 02753 9521 +169 +109 207006 013 019 001 00

[supercane4867]

Now officially undergoing RI

Still expect windspeeds to take several hours to catch up

[ronyan]

Watch observations at Andros.

[Blinhart]

Extrapolated pressure down to 952. Here we go...

Yeah was just getting ready to post it

043530 2331N 07629W 6963 02753 9521 +169 +109 207006 013 019 001 00

That is a big drop in the last hour or 2. Dangerous situation coming out of this. Think Extrapolated pressure will be 952, 951, or 950?

[MaineWeatherNut]

043530 2331N 07629W 6963 02753 9521 +169 +109 207006 013 019 001 00

952.1 mb this pass... about a 7mb drop in the last hour...

[AutoPenalti]

This has another 24 hours to intensify.

[psyclone]

Extrapolated pressure down to 952. Here we go...

I was waiting for that.

[Blown Away]

Didn't realize how close Miami was to the track... Deviation of 30-40 miles would be all it would take to be close to hurricane gusts... Wow, what a tough call for the NHC...