ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7781 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:11 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:previous advisory was nne at 14mph. though its only moved 60 miles in the last 6 hours that yields an average speed of 10 mi/hr

the last 4 hours yields 6.33 mi/hr

so has slowed down..


I think it's a little faster than that, but yes the last three hours have slowed down a touch.



its not faster than that.. thats the actual recon center fixes and times i used.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7782 Postby Javlin » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:11 am

Something just does not quite look right on the IF separation of the trof over in TN/NC area and almost a separation in the gulf stream just looks more like Destin or PB to my eye?Cloud mass expanding N of the system and to the W;maybe optical? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-ir4.html
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7783 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:13 am

Recon finding surface 55 mph winds 120 miles SE from the coc.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7784 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:13 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that is a large swath of 65to 70kt winds to the SE I would have gone 70mph for the advisory given this new set.


Yes a large swath indeed, but you would need 75 kt flight level or 60 knot SFMR readings to up the intensity, which haven't been found yet.


dont think its 20% reduction at their altitude. but no big deal it will be at hurricane strength soon enough..
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7785 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:14 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:previous advisory was nne at 14mph. though its only moved 60 miles in the last 6 hours that yields an average speed of 10 mi/hr

the last 4 hours yields 6.33 mi/hr

so has slowed down..


I think it's a little faster than that, but yes the last three hours have slowed down a touch.



its not faster than that.. thats the actual recon center fixes and times i used.


Yes, it has slowed down in the past 3-4 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7786 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:14 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that is a large swath of 65to 70kt winds to the SE I would have gone 70mph for the advisory given this new set.


Yes a large swath indeed, but you would need 75 kt flight level or 60 knot SFMR readings to up the intensity, which haven't been found yet.


sorry that was 67kt flt lvl 77mph oops
Last edited by tropicwatch on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7787 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:15 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:previous advisory was nne at 14mph. though its only moved 60 miles in the last 6 hours that yields an average speed of 10 mi/hr

the last 4 hours yields 6.33 mi/hr

so has slowed down..


I think it's a little faster than that, but yes the last three hours have slowed down a touch.



its not faster than that.. thats the actual recon center fixes and times i used.


NHC advisory at 7 am was 27.1N 86.2W and now 27.4N 86.0W. That is 21 nm in 3 hours so 7 knots.

Last six hours is 68 nm so 11+ knots.
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7788 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:15 am

Newest surge estimates from NHC:

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Keaton Beach...5 to 8 feet
Keaton Beach to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7789 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:16 am

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
I think it's a little faster than that, but yes the last three hours have slowed down a touch.



its not faster than that.. thats the actual recon center fixes and times i used.


Yes, it has slowed down in the past 3-4 hours or so.


yea, but the 14mph from the previous advisory is wrong if you use a 6 hour average from recon center fixes.only yields 10mph

it slowed from 10mph to 6.5 mph in the last 3 hours
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7790 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:19 am

NDG wrote:Recon finding surface 55 mph winds 120 miles SE from the coc.


By late this afternoon, Hermine is forecasted to be 130 miles NW of St Pete, tropical storm warnings need to go up for Tampa Bay, IMO.
Unless the NHC thinks that the storm will tighten up closer to its coc by then.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7791 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:20 am

Image

This is looking like a due north landfall
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7792 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:21 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:

its not faster than that.. thats the actual recon center fixes and times i used.


Yes, it has slowed down in the past 3-4 hours or so.


yea, but the 14mph from the previous advisory is wrong if you use a 6 hour average from recon center fixes.only yields 10mph

it slowed from 10mph to 6.5 mph in the last 3 hours


I'm still getting over 7 mph using recon fixes, but this seems kind of silly to argue given the magnitude of uncertainty. Yes, it has slowed recently, but I would expect it to pick back up soon.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7793 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:21 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
I think it's a little faster than that, but yes the last three hours have slowed down a touch.



its not faster than that.. thats the actual recon center fixes and times i used.


NHC advisory at 7 am was 27.1N 86.2W and now 27.4N 86.0W. That is 21 nm in 3 hours so 7 knots.

Last six hours is 68 nm so 11+ knots.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml

your cords yield 18 nm or 20.714 miles

must convert

so your 3 hour ( based off advisories) is 6.9 mph not "knots"
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7794 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:22 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:Tampa's TS wind probability has been upped to 53, an all-time high for the system, but no TS warnings extended south of the Pasco County border.

Speculating that Pinellas/Hillsborough told the NHC they don't want to have to activate whatever protocols go into place upon TS warnings.


Well that's a bunch of b.s. if that's the case. Josh Linker on Bay News 9 said the beaches should expect t.s. winds. St. Pete already at 25 mph sustained
Last edited by caneman on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7795 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:22 am

Is that considered spiked-outflow on the southeast side of all the convection? Sure does look like it
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7796 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:23 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:
Yes, it has slowed down in the past 3-4 hours or so.


yea, but the 14mph from the previous advisory is wrong if you use a 6 hour average from recon center fixes.only yields 10mph

it slowed from 10mph to 6.5 mph in the last 3 hours


I'm still getting over 7 mph using recon fixes, but this seems kind of silly to argue given the magnitude of uncertainty. Yes, it has slowed recently, but I would expect it to pick back up soon.


lol I agree its silly but fun :P its all good talking semantics here.. but 14mph over 6 hours is not correct per recon.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7797 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:23 am

Just looking at visible it looks like the center has slowed down to a crawl and is drifting right now. Next recon pass should confirm if that's the case or not. Convection wrapping around nicely and getting ready to ramp up to hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7798 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:26 am

Aric I used that site to do my calculations. It is 21 nm. Those are nautical miles. It is 24 sm. I am not following you. Regardless, I think the point is made that Hermine slightly slowed down.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7799 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:27 am

11 am NHC track shifted slightly again to the east.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7800 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:28 am

Wow, notice how far SE the high winds are. Recon is finding 55+ kt flight level winds near 25.5, 84.5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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