ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

man that is close to FL, if it does regain momentum, will it have enough time to significantly ramp up before it hits FL?

If it stayed on its exact heading all the way to land and didn't make a west turn then Matt is still 292nm off the Florida coast. Current heading would landfall 25 miles north of Jupiter. The storm is still only moving at 10mph which is about the same speed it has moved all day long. That would still give it 29 hours over water. This storm went from a cat 1 to cat 5 in approx. 36 hrs.

[Sanibel]

Stephen, still doubting the intensification?

[Bocadude85]

1:30 am and people are still installing their hurricane shutters in my community.

[xironman]

Does anyone know the current recon status?

Recon looks to be heading home. Another plane is getting ready to depart though.

It's already in the air and on it's way.

About two hours to a VDM

[chaser1]

We're in a mobile home in Middleburg (south of Jax), about 35 miles inland. Choosing to ride it out here instead of a house next door that has huge trees right above the roof. My sister is evacuating to here from her house in Vilano Beach that's right on Coastal Highway. We were in Homestead for Andrew, so my storm PTSD has kicked in Don't really have a choice in many ways, we have livestock and can't chance not getting back into the area after. Just hoping we are far enough inland.

Sounds like it would be far more convenient to stay. Question, who feeds the livestock if you die? Solution: 6 or so hours before the core of the storm appears to come close to a landfall near Jax, why not take a leisurely dinner out at perhaps Cracker Barrel (any particular one assuming its 30-60 miles west of you. Just in case, Denny's will do as well. Afterwards, come on home like nothing every happened. If your trailer is fine, no harm - no foul. If your trailer is wrecked - you'll still be around to feed the livestock. Of course, if the storm appears that it will pass well east of Jax., then perhaps you'll all be fine. Personally, any trailer closer than 75 miles from the eye of a hurricane... is just too close. By the way, I chase hurricanes but that doesn't make me a risk-taker as long as I'm in control of the structure that I"m at/in. You wouldn't fly in an airplane without wings would you? Please take the necessary precautions and not put yourselves in harms way. Besides, the anxiety just isn't worth it.

Don't know if you saw the part about having been in Andrew in Homestead. Spent that one in a bathtub with my toddlers. Eye passed directly over us. The stories I could tell, like you've never experienced a hurricane unless you've had avocados from the grove across the street hitting the house by the hundreds at 160 mph. I'm well aware of the risks and possibilities, probably way more so than many.

Sounds like your Hurricane Andrew experience was quite a bit more "organic" than mine. Over in the Palmetto Estates/Perrine area & U.S 1, we didn't have any grove related damage. Of course as you well know, it wasn't all that easy to make out what exactly was sprewn everywhere. No bathtub for this chaser, oh no! I was perfectly happy cowering under some massive oak table, just praying it would all end! 'Course, bring a night-time landfall, that just only added to the dread.

[craptacular]

Does anyone know the current recon status?

Recon looks to be heading home. Another plane is getting ready to depart though.

It's already in the air and on it's way.

Yeah, it took off a half-hour ago from Mississippi, so it will be a while before it gets to Matthew.

[Blown Away]

JB's thoughts... His statement assumes a Florida landfall...

[Steve]

Yeah, that's a little of gotcha journalism on Joe's behalf. I like his weather videos, and I understand his position about climate change, but I really don't like going to his twitter because he just puts some weak stuff out there.

To his point, I don't agree or disagree that it's going to hit. But you know he is going to want to claim some credit for being out front. His ideas have been decent, but so have mine and probably yours too. On the other hand, he's got this pegged enough to call for a landfall (and I lean that way but am not calling for it) points up through Flagler Beach, Palm Coast then north to St. John's and Duval County are going to get it too.

[stephen23]

Stephen, still doubting the intensification?

When did I doubt the intensification? All I stated was that at the time when people were first calling for RI and deepening recon was showing steady max wind and steady pressure. At that time there was an open eye to the west. I have always believed this would landfall as a cat 4. May be wrong on that now because it may reach 5 but who knows? But when the question was asked before the NOAA plane entered for bets on pressure and wind I said 962 and 120 mph. First dropsonde and vortex message showed it 962 and 120 mph. Was just being realistic at the time.

[Happy Pelican]

Oh my goodness.

I said it earlier and I'll say it again. Have all of your Home/Flood/Car Insurance declaration pages and claim info with you. You don't want to have to look for it or realize you left it when you evacuated and now can't get to it. TRUST ME.

With the potential loss of power, if you evacuated, take way more clothes, meds etc... then you think you need. No power? At least you'll have enough clean clothes to last a few weeks. Have your first aid kit ready and anything you may need in a moments notice. Basically, once you evacuate your home, you have no idea when you'll get back. We didn't have access to the barrier island (NJ) for 2 weeks after Sandy and some towns (Ortley Beach) was even longer.

I know I sounds crazy but take as much as you can. Photo albums, laptops, sentimental items. Not knowing how damaged your home could be is awful enough but not knowing if sentimental stuff was destroyed is even worse.

Please know, to all in the path, the Jersey Shore is praying for you all.

[Alyono]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

[FLpanhandle91]

[SunnyThoughts]

Port Nassau webcam, for as long as it lasts. http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

[FLpanhandle91]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Thinking this will temporary before the next EWRC. I think it has finally regained it's structure closed its eye wall.

[stephen23]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Eye appears to be open to the NW again per radar?

[crm6360]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Complete lack of banding and seems to be having ventilation problems. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this just maintain present structure all the way into Florida. I remember the NHC predicting Fran would intensify to Cat 4 as it made its approach on a similar heading. Gulf Stream effect is way overhyped because of Hugo.

[Patricia]

I really fear my family member and her family are going to lose everything. Their home is on a barrier island around Melborne. They evacuated already but I can't imagine how you rebuild, especially with kids.

[FLpanhandle91]

I think the next frame will be telling. I would not be surprised to see another hot tower fire.

[Aric Dunn]

ok im back.. what did I miss ?

[Alyono]

may be leveling off based upon satellite imagery. Had a quick burst of intensification, but now looks to be steady state. Eye not quite as well defined and cloud tops slightly warmer. May be temporary though

Complete lack of banding and seems to be having ventilation problems. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this just maintain present structure all the way into Florida. I remember the NHC predicting Fran would intensify to Cat 4 as it made its approach on a similar heading. Gulf Stream effect is way overhyped because of Hugo.

Andrew had very little banding on satellite. It intensified just fine