ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cedar Key to Apalachicola still looking like the areas that will be most affected by storm surge. Anybody know when high tide occurs?

3:32 AM ET for the St. Marks River Entrance.

Yup, just about when landfall will occur. Not good.

[tallywx]

Cedar Key to Apalachicola still looking like the areas that will be most affected by storm surge. Anybody know when high tide occurs?

3:32 AM ET for the St. Marks River Entrance.

Yup, just about when landfall will occur. Not good.

and low tide is at 9:26pm. So the natural rush of water that comes with the incoming tide will coincide with the surge push.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Anyone have a link to the MSFC visible?

[caneman]

Can someone tell me quickly estimated surge for weeki wachi? Have a friend that lIves there.

[BRweather]

Latest HRRR has a:

Landfall -- midnight w/ pressure of 983 mb
10 meter winds -- 73 knots
80 meter winds -- 90 knots
Gusts -- 98 knots
Tallahassee with big impacts and almost sustained hurricane force winds along coast

[txwatcher91]

Anyone have a link to the MSFC visible?

Here you go. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[NDG]

Buoy just 25 miles west from Sarasota/Venice is now reporting wind gusts close to 50 mph

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42013

[tallywx]

Latest HRRR has a:

Landfall -- midnight w/ pressure of 983 mb
10 meter winds -- 73 knots
80 meter winds -- 90 knots
Gusts -- 98 knots
Tallahassee with big impacts and almost sustained hurricane force winds along coast

GFS 12z has landfall at Alligator Point/Shell Point with hurricane force gusts clipping Tallahassee. Given 30+ years of almost untouched (by storm) tree cover (Tallahassee is one of the most jungle-like cities that exists in the lower 48), a lot of stuff is going to come down.

[jlf7]

Storm surge camera set up at St. Mark's:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hbt4W9peBLY?utm_campaign=ustre.am&utm_source=ustre.am%2F1rAmK&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20160901051301

[txwatcher91]

GFS seems too fast with its movement. I'm favoring a slower movement similar to the NAM since this matches up better with real time trends of the center slowing down as it organizes. That would also mean a slightly delayed landfall and more time over water to strengthen.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS landfall 3am.
sorry 6am

[Steve]

Put the flipping watches up. Bays news 9 is saying wind will be strong and with complete saturation of ground there will be felled trees.

It looks like the local NWS office is doing hurricane local statements for Pinellas down to Lee County/Ft. Myers area.

[BRweather]

GFS landfall 3am.

That is as late as I would go

[Aric Dunn]

GFS landfall 3am.

That is as late as I would go

sorry its actually 6am. 18 hours from now.

[BRweather]

If you are wondering,

still approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes until the next location fix from recon. So thats around 12:30 PM CDT

[BRweather]

GFS landfall 3am.

That is as late as I would go

sorry its actually 6am. 18 hours from now.

When is you arrival time for flight?

[psyclone]

with that wrap up on the west side...folks just west of the landfall point could be in for some very spicy weather. I'd really be watching with intense interest in places like Bay and Gulf counties.

[Steve]

Latest HRRR has a:

Landfall -- midnight w/ pressure of 983 mb
10 meter winds -- 73 knots
80 meter winds -- 90 knots
Gusts -- 98 knots
Tallahassee with big impacts and almost sustained hurricane force winds along coast

GFS 12z has landfall at Alligator Point/Shell Point with hurricane force gusts clipping Tallahassee. Given 30+ years of almost untouched (by storm) tree cover (Tallahassee is one of the most jungle-like cities that exists in the lower 48), a lot of stuff is going to come down.

Ain't been that long Tally. My youngest brother was at FSU and lived there after from like 1993-1998. There were numerous 40-50mph swipes at that time. He'd always call me to harass me since we'd be getting nothing here. Having said that, I'm over there all the time. It's got more trees than almost any other city. Gonna take a couple of days to clean the streets for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

That is as late as I would go

sorry its actually 6am. 18 hours from now.

When is you arrival time for flight?

im going to likely be way late. arrive at 501 am. then a 2 hour drive. lol unless this slower speed continues for a few more hours. but ill still follow it inland.

[MetroMike]

The moisture plume form this storm is incredible.It reaches way down to almost down the Yucatan.