ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

I'm really curious to see what kind of weather we get here in the bay area. very close shave with TS conditions. Perhaps Dennis 05 would be a good analog.

Yeah I am still curious why no TS warnings for Pinellas and Hillsborough because it certainly looks like TS conditions are quite likely with these bands and based on the special weather statements I see coming out from Ruskin.

It's close but it might be a touch either side. We did have TS warnings with Dennis. I think the key is the intensity of the convection. strong winds with cells are a certainty...but that's not sustained ts conditions. Plus the cloud tops in the convective mass approaching us have warmed some. It's definitely going to be breezy & wet. There's not doubt the west move bailed us out compared to what would have happened had this move into...say Levy county...as some of the earlier forecasts showed.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eyewall now 75% complete, may be fully wrapped by next VORTEX.

Speaking of which, my guess for the next vortex is 987mb/65kt SFMR.

That was my prediction for the first vortex...I was off one

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm glad that this will be the first Hermine to reach hurricane intensity.

[Happy Pelican]

Really hope the Jersey Shore/Mid-Atlantic even knows what's going on.. the attention currently is directed at the gulf/florida right now. What happens afterwards still needs to be watched.

Watching like a hawk. My Sandy PTSD is in overdrive right now. Concerned they may wait too long to issue watches/warnings here in fear of losing holiday revenue. I've already heard rumors of possible voluntary Evacs in certain areas.

nhc isnt basing their forecasting on someone losing revenue...local govts might do that but not nhc

After the NHC issues watches/warnings, my concern is local towns making the right call. This area is in no way ready to handle any time of surge.

[NJWxHurricane]

Watching like a hawk. My Sandy PTSD is in overdrive right now. Concerned they may wait too long to issue watches/warnings here in fear of losing holiday revenue. I've already heard rumors of possible voluntary Evacs in certain areas.

What is your location on the Jersey Shore? I'm currently in Seaside Heights... no one is even aware at this point.

Pelican Island I could probably throw a rock and hit you My nephew is a State Troop and they are def aware.

Sup neighbor! If this storm does hit us, let's just hope it's not as bad as Sandy!

[BRweather]

160730 2655N 08355W 8441 01545 0109 +150 +150 174070 073 047 033 00
160800 2657N 08356W 8425 01565 0105 +162 +162 171063 073 042 036 03
160830 2659N 08357W 8452 01534 0102 +168 +168 176068 071 050 035 00
160900 2701N 08358W 8422 01562 0102 +162 +162 180063 064 053 039 00
160930 2703N 08359W 8427 01555 0094 +171 +171 171059 064 061 039 00
161000 2704N 08400W 8430 01557 0099 +172 +172 177056 061 054 043 00


Got 61 knots at surface w/ no flag. Rain induced though.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011615
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 19 20160901
160600 2648N 08354W 8444 01544 0102 +157 +157 179075 076 048 012 00
160630 2651N 08354W 8443 01547 0110 +151 //// 176066 074 043 030 05
160700 2653N 08354W 8417 01569 0107 +140 //// 176067 068 047 023 01
160730 2655N 08355W 8441 01545 0109 +150 +150 174070 073 047 033 00
160800 2657N 08356W 8425 01565 0105 +162 +162 171063 073 042 036 03
160830 2659N 08357W 8452 01534 0102 +168 +168 176068 071 050 035 00
160900 2701N 08358W 8422 01562 0102 +162 +162 180063 064 053 039 00
160930 2703N 08359W 8427 01555 0094 +171 +171 171059 064 061 039 00
161000 2704N 08400W 8430 01557 0099 +172 +172 177056 061 054 043 00
161030 2706N 08401W 8425 01560 0099 +167 +167 174061 063 050 028 03
161100 2708N 08402W 8427 01560 0095 +164 +164 174068 072 050 012 00
161130 2710N 08403W 8438 01549 0089 +168 +168 171060 063 048 007 00
161200 2712N 08404W 8423 01559 0085 +165 //// 173058 060 048 007 01
161230 2714N 08404W 8427 01553 0086 +166 +166 181058 059 048 005 00
161300 2716N 08405W 8432 01548 0087 +167 +167 184056 058 048 008 03
161330 2718N 08405W 8426 01551 0089 +168 +168 186060 062 048 010 00
161400 2720N 08406W 8432 01548 0086 +169 +169 187060 063 049 013 00
161430 2723N 08406W 8426 01551 0084 +169 +169 192061 062 052 015 03
161500 2725N 08407W 8429 01549 0086 +168 +168 190062 063 049 014 00
161530 2727N 08407W 8429 01547 0087 +166 +166 188065 067 050 018 03
$$
;

Actually SE quad. 76 kt FL, 61 kt SFMR.

[otterlyspicey]

Do we think the jumps in the last hour and a half on the satellite to the NE are actual jumps (storm speeding up) or do we think it's just the convection messing with us?

[Nimbus]

Albert Whitted Airport in St. Pete is reporting Sustained 22-24 mph since 0600 this morning. The airport is right on the bay, not sure of the height of the equipment though.
http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KSPG.html

High tide is at 2:41 this afternoon 2.55 ft is one of the higher astronomical tides.
Could cause some problems up in Oldsmar but I doubt the sculpture in Vinoy park gets washed away..

More concerned about the intensity forecast recon found 50 Knot surface winds and that was all the models were showing for landfall yesterday. If we keep getting 1 mb per hour surface pressure drops the 968 GFDL landfall pressure might verify.

[Aric Dunn]

Do we think the jumps in the last hour and a half on the satellite to the NE are actual jumps (storm speeding up) or do we think it's just the convection messing with us?

we will find out as soon as recon does the next pass

[Happy Pelican]

What is your location on the Jersey Shore? I'm currently in Seaside Heights... no one is even aware at this point.

Pelican Island I could probably throw a rock and hit you My nephew is a State Troop and they are def aware.

Sup neighbor! If this storm does hit us, let's just hope it's not as bad as Sandy!

We just finished lifting our house (kinda happy about it now). Source told me the holiday weekend tourist situation is a major concern. As you know, there is no way Ortley will sustain any lengthy beating (barely survived Oct 2015) and at bare minimum, they may need to get these vacationers off the island. Not thinking Sandy but def judging by the models, flooding and some,of those houses up on cribbing becoming compromised.

[robbielyn]

gov Scott said landfall 2AM per NHC. 8 ft surge in some areas. he called this life-threatening due to floods and surge more than wind. change cell phone to get updates. 3 days worth of food; get rid of any standing water cause of zika.

[TheStormExpert]

Is that an Eye I see!?



 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/771375536660684800

[Dave C]

I'm glad that this will be the first Hermine to reach hurricane intensity.

Be careful what you wish for

[JtSmarts]

The HWRF simulated from 0z has been spot on thus far imo. The storm is really evolving the way it showed.

[Happy Pelican]

Is that an Eye I see!?



 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/771375536660684800

Certainly looks that way. Once she closes up, here comes the muscle.

[gatorcane]

I'm really curious to see what kind of weather we get here in the bay area. very close shave with TS conditions. Perhaps Dennis 05 would be a good analog.

Yeah I am still curious why no TS warnings for Pinellas and Hillsborough because it certainly looks like TS conditions are quite likely with these bands and based on the special weather statements I see coming out from Ruskin.

It's close but it might be a touch either side. We did have TS warnings with Dennis. I think the key is the intensity of the convection. strong winds with cells are a certainty...but that's not sustained ts conditions. Plus the cloud tops in the convective mass approaching us have warmed some. It's definitely going to be breezy & wet. There's not doubt the west move bailed us out compared to what would have happened had this move into...say Levy county...as some of the earlier forecasts showed.

looks like the bands into Pinellas are gaining strength actually, curious what kind of conditions these squalls will bring.

[Michele B]

Navy SAT imagery is always good to look at when something is in the Gulf, check it out:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Wow. This is a great view!

Although it looks like dry air infusing to the west and wrapping around the south side, I think I can also see this thing tightening up and trying to form an eye.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011625
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 20 20160901
161600 2729N 08408W 8434 01547 0087 +166 +166 185064 068 051 011 00
161630 2731N 08408W 8424 01557 0092 +163 +163 186069 072 052 009 00
161700 2733N 08408W 8426 01553 0089 +165 +165 180070 071 050 009 00
161730 2735N 08409W 8425 01552 0089 +165 +165 172069 071 048 007 00
161800 2738N 08409W 8423 01551 0085 +165 +165 169073 074 049 006 00
161830 2740N 08410W 8436 01542 0085 +164 +164 171072 072 047 007 00
161900 2742N 08410W 8429 01550 0086 +159 //// 166066 071 048 006 01
161930 2744N 08411W 8426 01551 0084 +156 //// 159063 064 050 006 01
162000 2746N 08411W 8427 01550 0080 +159 //// 159065 066 052 006 01
162030 2748N 08412W 8430 01546 0082 +159 //// 163063 064 053 004 01
162100 2751N 08412W 8435 01545 0087 +158 +158 167062 066 051 006 00
162130 2753N 08413W 8432 01545 0086 +158 +158 172057 060 050 008 00
162200 2755N 08413W 8429 01550 0073 +165 +159 160055 057 050 008 00
162230 2757N 08413W 8426 01551 0072 +168 +148 155060 061 052 004 00
162300 2759N 08414W 8425 01554 0072 +169 +149 157054 059 052 005 00
162330 2801N 08414W 8429 01548 0071 +170 +145 154054 055 049 005 00
162400 2803N 08415W 8429 01546 0066 +176 +142 152054 055 048 005 00
162430 2805N 08415W 8435 01538 0071 +167 +146 155050 054 048 008 00
162500 2807N 08416W 8425 01550 0067 +173 +142 157049 050 050 008 00
162530 2809N 08416W 8432 01542 0068 +169 +148 160051 054 051 009 00
$$
;

Large area of strong winds east of the center.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Yeah I am still curious why no TS warnings for Pinellas and Hillsborough because it certainly looks like TS conditions are quite likely with these bands and based on the special weather statements I see coming out from Ruskin.

It's close but it might be a touch either side. We did have TS warnings with Dennis. I think the key is the intensity of the convection. strong winds with cells are a certainty...but that's not sustained ts conditions. Plus the cloud tops in the convective mass approaching us have warmed some. It's definitely going to be breezy & wet. There's not doubt the west move bailed us out compared to what would have happened had this move into...say Levy county...as some of the earlier forecasts showed.

looks like the bands into Pinellas are gaining strength actually, curious what kind of conditions these squalls will bring.

Will those squalls make it ashore?