ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

People act like this cat 5 hurricane clam down god lol

It's still a dangerous situation and nothing to joke about.

[Aric Dunn]

latest visible looks like the eastern "eyewall" is about to fire convection.. if that happens.. could really see this deepen.

[JaxGator]

People act like this cat 5 hurricane clam down god lol

It's still a dangerous situation and nothing to joke about.

[jdjaguar]

The large amount of winds to the SE of the LLC gives me concern in Jacksonville. That SE quad should be smacking us head on this time tomorrow.

agree...it is concerning.

heading out this afternoon to fill up the gas cans, grab some water and batteries, and test the new generator.

This will be the first real storm to affect us since we moved from Fruit Cove to Jax Beach back in 2009.

Stay safe.

[Mouton]

Im thinking a 980-982 landing is reachable and probable. We are in extreme NE Nassau County Florida, just south of Ga. Expecting more winds here then any time since Floyd in 99. Debated but now putting up the shutters...all chargeable things fully charged. Ice stored in freezer.

Be safe all.

[p1nheadlarry]

88 mph flight level winds in that nasty-looking east side, the squalls will be quite blustery. Watch for tornadoes especially north of I-4.

[ConvergenceZone]

I was wrong with my thinking of only getting a TS. Based on current presentation, I think rapid intensification is still possible since it will still be offshore for several more hours.

[Aric Dunn]

at current (advisory speed which its not moving 14mph) speed it time to coast is 16.5 hours. at recon center fixes of around 10mph would be near 20 hours till landfall.. going to have to speed up..

[Aric Dunn]

88 mph flight level winds in that nasty-looking east side, the squalls will be quite blustery. Watch for tornadoes especially north of I-4.

should be enough to do a blend for a hurricane upgrade.

[gatorcane]

It's close but it might be a touch either side. We did have TS warnings with Dennis. I think the key is the intensity of the convection. strong winds with cells are a certainty...but that's not sustained ts conditions. Plus the cloud tops in the convective mass approaching us have warmed some. It's definitely going to be breezy & wet. There's not doubt the west move bailed us out compared to what would have happened had this move into...say Levy county...as some of the earlier forecasts showed.

looks like the bands into Pinellas are gaining strength actually, curious what kind of conditions these squalls will bring.

Will those squalls make it ashore?

They already have looking at the radar

[KWT]

Looks pretty good to me right now, certainly looks like an eye is present with the eyewall clearly in development.

Winds at flight level look good enough to suggest an upgrade, especially when it is this close to land and clearly still developing and strengthening.

[xcool22]

People act like this cat 5 hurricane clam down god lol

It's still a dangerous situation and nothing to joke about.

Who said about joke .not me

[La Sirena]

Wow, 75 flight level winds, approximately 100 miles east of the coc!!!!

160500 2644N 08354W 8429 01562 0097 +155 +153 185074 075 050 007 00

I believe it as it has been incredibly gusty down here since last night. Winds have picked up and we aren't even near the storm.

[GCANE]

Poleward outflow is increasing rapidily.

Very likely intensification all the way in.

[RL3AO]

Significant jump in storm surge risk with the latest SLOSH run.

[Dave C]

I was wrong with my thinking of only getting a TS. Based on current presentation, I think rapid intensification is still possible since it will still be offshore for several more hours.

I was thinking too that the shape of the coast where it landfalls may help it wrap up more just before landfall.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011635
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 21 20160901
162600 2811N 08416W 8428 01549 0071 +165 +164 166055 056 052 009 00
162630 2813N 08417W 8427 01548 0066 +171 +166 165053 054 052 012 00
162700 2815N 08417W 8436 01540 0064 +175 +161 164055 055 052 012 03
162730 2817N 08418W 8423 01553 0060 +185 +150 161055 055 052 012 00
162800 2819N 08418W 8431 01543 0061 +181 +151 164058 058 053 010 00
162830 2822N 08419W 8430 01544 0059 +185 +149 162058 059 050 010 00
162900 2824N 08419W 8432 01542 0065 +177 +152 164054 058 048 004 00
162930 2826N 08420W 8430 01548 0065 +179 +152 164055 056 045 004 00
163000 2828N 08420W 8428 01551 0064 +182 +149 164056 057 044 002 00
163030 2830N 08420W 8429 01548 0066 +180 +147 163056 056 044 001 00
163100 2832N 08421W 8431 01549 0068 +181 +142 162057 059 046 001 00
163130 2834N 08421W 8428 01555 0069 +182 +143 159056 058 047 001 00
163200 2836N 08422W 8433 01548 0072 +176 +161 158051 055 044 001 00
163230 2838N 08422W 8426 01559 //// +170 //// 161050 051 043 001 01
163300 2840N 08423W 8430 01551 0073 +176 +145 159047 049 041 003 00
163330 2842N 08423W 8429 01555 0076 +172 +143 157052 052 043 002 00
163400 2844N 08424W 8430 01554 0079 +167 +143 158054 055 042 002 00
163430 2846N 08424W 8426 01560 0086 +165 +145 156051 055 040 001 03
163500 2847N 08426W 8429 01555 0081 +166 +156 155045 049 /// /// 03
163530 2846N 08428W 8436 01548 0075 +172 +157 156040 043 037 002 00
$$
;

Turning back into the NE quad.

[StarmanHDB]

People act like this cat 5 hurricane clam down god lol

It's still a dangerous situation and nothing to joke about.

I believe 14 people were killed in Florida when the then Category 1 Katrina rolled through the state back in 2005. So, 14 families lost family members, friends lost friends, loved ones lost loved ones. Yeah, I am sick and tired of hearing and reading comments such as "it's only a tropical storm" or "people act like this cat 5 hurricane clam down god lol". Have some respect!

[RL3AO]

10-20 inches of rain and potentially 9 feet of storm surge in spots. Please don't come on here with the "it's only a TS/cat 1" crap. It's a bad mentality that kills people.

[Aric Dunn]

recon finally turned for second pass. 2 more sets to go.