ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

I live in avalon park, just south of UCF and about 30 miles from cocoa, TWC is predicting 100+ winds for us tomorrow afternoon...whoa!!!

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone.

Welll we are now within 24 hours or so.before Matthew's historic landfall on Florida's East Coast.

One thing I am wondering is that trough which is supposed to move Matthew northeast away from Jacksonville on early Saturday morning.

I am wondering just howstrong that ridge is because it appears that Matthew only gets to about the Beaufort, SC
and to offshore with a notable slowing. It sure looks possible that Matthew may only get barely only 100 -150 miles off the SE U.S. coast.

It looks like the loop to the southeast may bot be as far to the right as initially forecasted. But, first thing first. Matthew's eyewall will get right at Jacksonville Beach by around 3-7 a.m. early Saturday morning.

[NDG]

TV Mets are being very conservative with their forecasted winds for the Orlando area of only 100 mph wind gusts, if we have a Cat 4 only 30-40 miles or so from the city, that will put most of the city on the NW and W side of the eyewall, it could probably be more like 120 mph wind gusts, especially on the eastern side of the city. The eye is forecasted to grow big time in diameter by the time it gets to us. IMO

[KBBOCA]

First time I've posted in five years...Matthew is starting to wrap convection in all quadrants...very impressive

This storm has really brought back tons of us old-timers. I'd need to check, but I probably hadn't posted here since Sandy.

[NDG]

Good morning everyone.

Welll we are now within 24 hours or so.before Matthew's historic landfall on Florida's East Coast.

One thing I am wondering is that trough which is supposed to movev Matthew northeast away from Jacksonville on early Saturday morning.

I am wondering just howstrong that ridge is because it appears that Matthew only gets to about the Beaufort, SC
and to offshore with a notable slowing. It sure looks possible that Matthew may only get barely only 100 -150 miles off the SE U.S. coast.

It looks like the loop to the southeast may bot be as far to the right as initially forecasted. But, first thing first. Matthew's eyewall will get right at Jacksonville Beach by around 3-7 a.m. early Saturday morning.

New forecast track by the NHC has the eye due east of FL-GA state line for 2 AM Saturday morning, so I would think that the worst for Jax beaches will be around midnight and not that late in the morning Saturday.
Stay safe my friend!

[GCANE]

Matthew cranking now as DMAX approaches - pretty much as I indicated yesterday.
Eye suddenly popping on IR.
He entrained very moist, high-energy air as indicated by the high Theta-E and CAPE values in the Bahamas.
This on top of the high heat content of the water.

Thank you for your advanced insight when it comes to these storms. It's fascinating to see how thunderstorm/severe potential benefits the hurricane as a whole.

Your welcome

[AdamFirst]

Gonna try to get some more sleep. Probably won't sleep much over the next day or so

[Alyono]

TV Mets are being very conservative with their forecasted winds for the Orlando area of only 100 mph wind gusts, if we have a Cat 4 only 30-40 miles or so from the city, that will put most of the city on the NW and W side of the eyewall, it could probably be more like 120 mph wind gusts, especially on the eastern side of the city. The eye is forecasted to grow big time in diameter by the time it gets to us. IMO

gusts in Orlando should be lower than 100 mph. It is so far inland, and this is not heading toward a direct hit, such that I'd expect peak gusts of 60-70 mph in Orlando

[boxwes]

I am in a bit of a "which is safer" dilemma.

I live in Boynton Beach, about 5 miles inland. I am in a home built in 1989, CBS construction with a new roof from 2006 (put in after the whole Frances/Jean/Wilma experience). I am completely bunkered down with metal shutters over every opening.

My parents live in Wellington, about 12 miles inland and 8 miles further north. When they went to put up their shutters, they found out their landlord had misrepresented them and they are missing shutters for 4 windows, including a north facing bay window. Their house is also CBS construction, but is much newer, built in 2004.

I feel like we are better off in my house with solid covering for all windows but my parents think it is better to be further inland even though they have no coverings and no reasonable way to get coverings for all of their windows.

Thoughts on what you would do?

[SouthFLTropics]

Gonna try to get some more sleep. Probably won't sleep much over the next day or so

I feel ya on that...Stay safe my friend and good luck. This one's got me a little nervous. I didn't feel that way with Frances/Jeanne/Wilma.

[GCANE]

As far as land interaction that could inhibit intensification:
there is a small convective cap (boundary-layer inversion) over the Glades.
This will likely get broken later today.
Pretty much nothing then to slow Matthew down.
I hate to say it, but upper level looks ideal for intensification into the Gulf Stream.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks NDG. Midnight - 3a.m. will be probably the worst of the wearher here in Jax. A couple of mets here was thinking like I was of the eyewall coming in a couple of hours later.However, it is all relative at this point as the hurricane will no doubt be right on us within about 30 hours from now.

Be safe down that way in the Orlando area as well .NDG.

[DelrayMorris]

I am in a bit of a "which is safer" dilemma.

I live in Boynton Beach, about 5 miles inland. I am in a home built in 1989, CBS construction with a new roof from 2006 (put in after the whole Frances/Jean/Wilma experience). I am completely bunkered down with metal shutters over every opening.

My parents live in Wellington, about 12 miles inland and 8 miles further north. When they went to put up their shutters, they found out their landlord had misrepresented them and they are missing shutters for 4 windows, including a north facing bay window. Their house is also CBS construction, but is much newer, built in 2004.

I feel like we are better off in my house with solid covering for all windows but my parents think it is better to be further inland even though they have no coverings and no reasonable way to get coverings for all of their windows.

Thoughts on what you would do?

Tough question, but the fully shuttered house would be a safer bet for me. They are also further north, if only by a little bit. If one of the windows breaks, the whole house is compromised. Just my opinion. We also live 5 miles inland with a new roof after Wilma and CBS construction. In Delray though... hello neighbor.

[eastcoastFL]

Gonna try to get some more sleep. Probably won't sleep much over the next day or so

I feel ya on that...Stay safe my friend and good luck. This one's got me a little nervous. I didn't feel that way with Frances/Jeanne/Wilma.

Same here plus our local met keeps saying THIS IS NOT FRANCES OR JEANE. But thats what I've been comparing it to as i plan and consider what could happen.

[adam0983]

I think the eye of Hurricane Matthew will miss Nassau to the south west which will make the storm come closer to south Florida. Any thoughts.

[GCANE]

Eye may be going pinhole again.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Next VDM will be the tell.

[mrbagyo]

Outflow of this storm is mediocre and the eye is filling-in based on latest ir. Still dangerous though.

[CourierPR]

I think the eye of Hurricane Matthew will miss Nassau to the south west which will make the storm come closer to south Florida. Any thoughts.

Yes, I'm very nervous.

[NDG]

Outflow of this storm is mediocre and the eye is filling-in based on latest ir. Still dangerous though.

If it would had been that mediocre pressures would had not fallen 9 mb in just 3 hours.

[artist]

What about north Palm Beach county? Tia.

TV Mets are being very conservative with their forecasted winds for the Orlando area of only 100 mph wind gusts, if we have a Cat 4 only 30-40 miles or so from the city, that will put most of the city on the NW and W side of the eyewall, it could probably be more like 120 mph wind gusts, especially on the eastern side of the city. The eye is forecasted to grow big time in diameter by the time it gets to us. IMO

gusts in Orlando should be lower than 100 mph. It is so far inland, and this is not heading toward a direct hit, such that I'd expect peak gusts of 60-70 mph in Orlando