ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I think the eye of Hurricane Matthew will miss Nassau to the south west which will make the storm come closer to south Florida. Any thoughts.

Yes, I'm very nervous.

I have been looking at models and since yesterday they were forecasting for Matthew's direct eye to miss Nassau, getting Nassau in the right eyewall, no big surprise here. Trust the GFS and Euro, they have done a very good job within a 24 hr window with Matthew.

[CourierPR]

Outflow of this storm is mediocre and the eye is filling-in based on latest ir. Still dangerous though.

I'm glad you added that last sentence. People in the warning area need to have made preparations to protect life and property. Matt may not win the Mr. Universe contest but he is indeed deadly.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye filling in due to some interaction with Andros Island.

[otowntiger]

TV Mets are being very conservative with their forecasted winds for the Orlando area of only 100 mph wind gusts, if we have a Cat 4 only 30-40 miles or so from the city, that will put most of the city on the NW and W side of the eyewall, it could probably be more like 120 mph wind gusts, especially on the eastern side of the city. The eye is forecasted to grow big time in diameter by the time it gets to us. IMO

gusts in Orlando should be lower than 100 mph. It is so far inland, and this is not heading toward a direct hit, such that I'd expect peak gusts of 60-70 mph in Orlando

They may be going on past experience. Charley brought 105 gusts after traveling well over 100 miles to get to downtown Orlando. If Matthew stays a catc4 and is just 40 miles or so to our east we could see similar winds.

[Prof]

I am from Melbourne and my husband and I shuttered our house and brought our kids to Tampa. This will be our first hurricane. What kind of wind can we expect in Tampa? We only made our hotel reservation until Saturday, should we be able to go home by Saturday or should I be working on extending our stay? Our hotel is booked on Saturday night.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Eye filling in due to some interaction with Andros Island.

Actually it filled in because of another big burst of Deep Convection IMO...

[jlauderdal]

I am from Melbourne and my husband and I shuttered our house and brought our kids to Tampa. This will be our first hurricane. What kind of wind can we expect in Tampa? We only made our hotel reservation until Saturday, should we be able to go home by Saturday or should I be working on extending our stay? Our hotel is booked on Saturday night.

you can go home but its unlikely you will have power at that time

[NDG]

Pressure down another 2 mb, approximately.

100830 2418N 07715W 6966 02649 9398 +186 +114 252004 007 020 000 00

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Oh hell.

939.8 mb
(~ 27.76 inHg)

[jhpigott]

What about north Palm Beach county? Tia.

TV Mets are being very conservative with their forecasted winds for the Orlando area of only 100 mph wind gusts, if we have a Cat 4 only 30-40 miles or so from the city, that will put most of the city on the NW and W side of the eyewall, it could probably be more like 120 mph wind gusts, especially on the eastern side of the city. The eye is forecasted to grow big time in diameter by the time it gets to us. IMO

gusts in Orlando should be lower than 100 mph. It is so far inland, and this is not heading toward a direct hit, such that I'd expect peak gusts of 60-70 mph in Orlando

Ditto that question. I'm in the North Palm Beach/Juno Beach area and my point forecast calling for 65-85 sustained from the N gusting to 105. Sound reasonable? Looks like we may catch part of the western eyewall. I guess my concern would be a little jog west and we catch the northern eyewall (or God forbid the north eastern eyewall)

[USTropics]

Pressure continuing to drop with each pass:

[jlauderdal]

Outflow of this storm is mediocre and the eye is filling-in based on latest ir. Still dangerous though.

its intensifying and there is nothing mediocre about the setup

[USTropics]

NHC did increase forecasted max winds at 5:00am, not sure if this was posted earlier:

INIT 06/0900Z 24.2N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.7N 80.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 32.4N 77.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 31.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

[La Sirena]

Good morning....or as good of a morning as you can have with a hurricane so close. It's gone from a light breeze to gusty at times here in the lower Fla Keys. Wind has definitely picked up in the last half hour at my house.

For those looking to head toward Tampa---talked to friends last night who bugged out from Ft. Pierce and headed to stay with friends in Tampa. They said there was NO gas anywhere between Ft. Pierce and Tampa. I would suspect that to be much of the state at this point.

[drewschmaltz]

What about north Palm Beach county? Tia.

TV Mets are being very conservative with their forecasted winds for the Orlando area of only 100 mph wind gusts, if we have a Cat 4 only 30-40 miles or so from the city, that will put most of the city on the NW and W side of the eyewall, it could probably be more like 120 mph wind gusts, especially on the eastern side of the city. The eye is forecasted to grow big time in diameter by the time it gets to us. IMO

gusts in Orlando should be lower than 100 mph. It is so far inland, and this is not heading toward a direct hit, such that I'd expect peak gusts of 60-70 mph in Orlando

I'm in Orlando. I agree the east Orlando is going to get this a lot worse than west. I do no agree with 60-70 peak gusts. 60-70 sustained with gusts to 80-90 would be my estimate unless it's left of the track, which just 30 miles would bring much higher wind.

[NDG]

06z GFS brings the NW & Western eyewall over Orlando, not good.

[ronjon]

06z GFS brings the NW & Western eyewall over Orlando, not good.

Yeah NDG, GFDL runs right over Orlando.

[artist]

Someone really needs to smack Jim Cantore upside the head. He is talking about the eye becoming cloudy which is good, it may be shear, blah, blah, blah. Someone needs to inform him it is getting stronger-not weaker, according to recon!

[ronjon]

What about north Palm Beach county? Tia.

gusts in Orlando should be lower than 100 mph. It is so far inland, and this is not heading toward a direct hit, such that I'd expect peak gusts of 60-70 mph in Orlando

Ditto that question. I'm in the North Palm Beach/Juno Beach area and my point forecast calling for 65-85 sustained from the N gusting to 105. Sound reasonable? Looks like we may catch part of the western eyewall. I guess my concern would be a little jog west and we catch the northern eyewall (or God forbid the north eastern eyewall)

Not trying to scare you, but you could be ground zero for landfall of a 140 mph hurricane. Many reliable models bring the storm in near your location.

[artist]

Well, someone corrected him and they are showing it is intensifying now