ATL: HERMINE - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Ridge building in much stronger over the NE this run
240 hrs

[Alyono]

very strong cat 5 on the 0Z MU

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the GFS Fiona is going to be the key to the track of 99L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 907mb @ 240hrs. on 00z GFS before the resolution decreases!

[AutoPenalti]

Classic CMC

[TheStormExpert]

It's cutting a close one towards the NE U.S.

[PTrackerLA]

Gets a little too close for comfort to the East coast this run

[Hurricaneman]

Compared to the 18zGFS the 0zGFS is about 100mi farther west this run at 288

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

Depending on the future track and intensity of Fiona plays a HUGE role in 99L's future path.

If Fiona was non-existent or did not play a role in creating a weakness for 99L to head north this could be more of a SE U.S. including a Florida threat.

[Hurricaneman]

Depending on the future track and intensity of Fiona plays a HUGE role in 99L's future path.

and even the future strength of 99L too

and who knows, Fiona could completely crap out going through the shear causing a more dangerous scenario

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Bocadude85]

Gets a little too close for comfort to the East coast this run

And we are talking 12 days from now. I think everyone in the islands and then the East coast needs to keep an eye on 99L. We have seen many times before where models over exaggerate a weakness and then they start shifting westward as the time frame gets closer.

[TheStormExpert]

Depending on the future track and intensity of Fiona plays a HUGE role in 99L's future path.

and even the future strength of 99L too

Also think future 90L could play a big part as well in breaking down the ridge.

[Kingarabian]

Gonna be interesting to see if the Euro switches sides or not.

[TheStormExpert]

Gets a little too close for comfort to the East coast this run

And we are talking 12 days from now. I think everyone in the islands and then the East coast needs to keep an eye on 99L. We have seen many times before where models over exaggerate a weakness and then they start shifting westward as the time frame gets closer.

This is true. But Fiona, and the wave behind it seem to both help break down any ridge that tries to reestablish and create a weakness for 99L to slip through. Timing, placement, and strength of these 3 features will be key!

[TheStormExpert]

Gonna be interesting to see if the Euro switches sides or not.

In ways the Euro started a trend for Fiona, 99L, and the wave behind it. The GFS is just now following suite while the Euro flip-flops.

[TheStormExpert]

Good clustering now with the 00z GEFS Ensembles @ Hr. 192.

[weathaguyry]

From living on Long Island, I do agree that 99L is a little close for comfort, and if for some reason the models actually stayed consistent for the next few days (which I would be shocked about) "Gaston" would probably only bring some borderline TS winds into Eastern LI and Cape Cod, but nevertheless this is a very interesting feature to watch

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/766507605846007812

[Siker]

First proper inner nest HWRF run:

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the 00z Euro is even weaker 48 hours in.