ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sweetpea]

Just read the local hurricane statement from Melbourne. It is blunt and to the point. "Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months" I have not read this dire of a local hurricane statement since Katrina.....and we all know what happened there. Get out now if you can.

Most definitely leave, if you have never been in a major storm and you are not leaving because you want the thrill of witnessing a hurricane, you DO NOT want to do this with a major, maybe a Cat 1 fine, but this is going to scare the living hell out of those who are not experienced with such strong storms... if you have any pine trees or other tall trees near your house, expect them to become missiles thru your roof... ground zero will be affected for months, power loss, houses lost, schools shut down, trees and power lines down everywhere, and snakes, did I mention snakes! All you will hear for days is the sound of generators, and you will see those blue tarps covering damaged roofs for weeks because of a shortage of contractors available for repairs, speaking of, it would be smart if you had several large tarps on hand to repair the singles that you are going to lose when you come back to your home, oh and don't forget the looters after the storm.... and as bad as experiencing a major storm will be, the aftermath will even be worse.. take it from someone who has experienced it twice... good luck to all

Great post, I used to live in Palm Coast, FL. Just moved away a couple of years ago. My father in law is still there on the water and refuses to leave his house. He lives on the intercoastal and is about 1.5 miles from the ocean. He is under mandatory evac, but says he isn't budging. I even told him as much as I love storms if we were still living there, I would have gotten the heck out of there yesterday. This one is no joke. I am so scared for everyone in the path of this storm. Praying for him, friends and everyone else in the path of this nasty storm.

[jhpigott]

The best performing model for Matthew has been ECMO with an error of 25 miles.
This makes the likely landfall at Jupiter.
However, Matthew has a propensity to deflect toward land on its approach.
So, IMHO at this point, likely landfall would be around West Palm Beach.

Based upon recent radar trends I tend to think if Matthew comes ashore it will be further north up the coast

[jhpigott]

I am having an issue with posting graphics at the moment, but the RPM model actually takes the eyewall inland about 15 -20 miles inland from the coast as it.moves due north to Jacksonville. It is a frightening as this rakes all up the coast.

Where does RPM 1st bring eyewall onshore?

[1900hurricane]

The western eyewall is still running a little bit weak, which may be why the eye has yet to clear out fully.

[Michele B]

I haven't been here very long, and obviously we are now in the thick of it. Wanted to ask:

Is this the right forum to discuss final preps?

It always seems so "technical" here. Is there a different thread to discuss prep plans?

Yea, it's fine in here, there are some other less trafficked areas as well.

Observations thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118377

Hurricane Prep forum: viewforum.php?f=30

Thanks, Mark. i went over to those other forums, and there's not a lot of traffic there.

I wanted to say to those who are in the track of this monster, you must have your preps done VERY SOON NOW.

Beyond that, I thought I would share some of the things I have always done which seemed to benefit (but may seem insignificant enough to overlook!):

First of all - WASH ALL YOUR LAUNDRY! If your electric goes out for any stretch of time, you'll WISH YOU HAD clean clothes to wear! You might be outside cleaning up debris day after day, and the same stinky, soiled clothes get hard to handle....

It seems like a small, insignificant thing, but the small things will keep you from going crazy later on! Assuming all your preps are completed, spend the day washing all towels and sheets on beds, etc., so there's no dirty laundry - which WILL pile up after 7-10 or LONGER days with out power.

Fill ALL containers you can find with water and put them in your freezer. A full freezer will stay colder longer and you don't have to lose food. After Charley, i left for two days and when I returned, my food in fridge and freezer was FINE. I didn't lose one bit of food. Just keep the units closed as much as possible and it will keep cool. Of course, a generator will certainly save your food, but that was my issue - I left AFTER THE STORM to pick up a generator a friend had on the other coast - so I was gone for two days. Got back with the generator and was sure I was going to have to throw some stuff out before hooking up to the generator, but everything was fine!

Well, just a couple of tips I thought of, and now would be a good time to do these things - cause ALL your other preps are done, and you're NOT going out again, right?

Anybody else want to chime in on things to do now that will help "on the other side" of the storm?

[dukeblue219]

Recon extrapolated pressure 937.1 with sfmr of 109kt

[supercane4867]

110kt SFMR in SE quadrant, perhaps a slight drop in pressure for now

[abajan]

I don't know if it's been mentioned before, but one bit of good news is that the area of hurricane force and tropical storm force winds has decreased. Whereas at 11 PM the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds extended up to 45 miles and 175 miles from the center respectively, since 5 AM they've been extending up to 40 miles and 160 miles respectively.

[tolakram]

For those wanting to chat or help those with questions we do have a chat channel:

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

[FlSteel]

GCane,

Been a few years since I have really paid attention to hurricanes. No longer live in JAX but just outside of Charlotte.

Did I read this corrctly:

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 128kts (~ 147.3mph)

Matthew is up to 147 mph winds at the surface?

Thanks

[jlauderdal]

Will this northerly jog be enough to keep the storm offshore?

dont count on it..hurricanes dont move in straight lines

[marionstorm]

According to the lightning map there was a lightning strike in the eyewall just a few seconds ago. Some more lightning but further away on the periphery. I didn't think hurricanes had lightning.

edit: two now in the eyewall close to each other

[Jevo]

Matthew has been stair stepping for the last 24 hours. Don't take a northerly jog as a sign of a significant track change. The storm can just as easily jog West 30-50 miles and be on the West side of the cone. During it's lifetime he has avoided land with amazing efficiency, I'd watch for a wobble West as he rounds Andros.

[jdray]

I am having an issue with posting graphics at the moment, but the RPM model actually takes the eyewall inland about 15 -20 miles inland from the coast as it.moves due north to Jacksonville. It is a frightening as this rakes all up the coast.

Wow, that's a very scary scenario. We have so many older buildings and houses with pre-Andrew code.

[ThetaE]

According to the lightning map there was a lightning strike in the eyewall just a few seconds ago. Some more lightning but further away on the periphery. I didn't think hurricanes had lightning.

Lightning in tropical cyclones is a sign of rapid intensification.

Sometimes it can also signify rapid weakening, but I think it's pretty obvious that's not happening with Matthew right now.

[Michele B]

If you are in the path of Hurricane Matthew take some advice from someone who has worked emergency services in countless hurricanes. Take nothing for granted including help. Plan and prepare to be TOTALLY self sufficient for at least 72 hours or more. Heed warnings and listen for official emergency information. And don't do stupid stuff that means emergency personnel have to risk their lives to save you. Your injury or death due to this storm is 100% preventable.

Good advice.

My biggest pet peeve is those people who say theyre 'going to stay and "ride it out," and then when the storm reaches them in its intensity they try to call emergency personnel to come rescue them.

PEOPLE, THEY CANNOT COME THEN! IT'S TOO DANGEROUS FOR THEM AS WELL.

My husband was a firefighter. Yes, I'm proud he wants to save people's lives, but I don't want him risking his life for someone who wouldn't do what would have help d them help themselves.

Sorry if it's harsh, but it's the truth. If you want to put your own life in danger, then don't expect others to come rescue you when you realize you've made a terrible, terrible mistake. It's not that they dont ' want to, it's that it's NOT SAFE for them to be out in it, either.

PLEASE TAKE ALL WARNINGS SERIOUSLY. There cannot be anyone who doesn't know this now....this is a DEADLY storm.

[CrazyC83]

Given that SFMR reading as well as recent flight level winds and trends, I would estimate an intensity of 120 kt right now.

[northjaxpro]

I am having an issue with posting graphics at the moment, but the RPM model actually takes the eyewall inland about 15 -20 miles inland from the coast as it.moves due north to Jacksonville. It is a frightening as this rakes all up the coast.

Where does RPM 1st bring eyewall onshore?

The initial landfall looks to be in Southern Brevard County in the vicinity of Palm Bay, just south of Melbourne. After landfall, the eyewall goes inland at least about 20 miles as it turns northward right up basically along I-95 right up along up to Jacksonville. This track would absolutely be devastating because like what TS Julia did last month, the eyewall of Matthew will track and rake right along the.coast and just inland.

Remember, the waters are extremely warm for early October alond the East Coast and thus Matthew will not get far away from his feediing source of the Gulf Stream. That is how Julia developed overJacksonville last month.

[NotoSans]

Eye is still struggling to clear out probably due to some interaction, but Matthew continues to gradually intensify and would be a very dangerous hurricane when it hits Florida.

[windnrain]

Eyewall lightning