ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Yep tornadoes and maybe storm surge. Not as concerned about rainfall now that it has picked up some speed but we'll see.

[NDG]

AF recon mission is done for this morning.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
700 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...RAINS FROM COLIN SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 87.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings
and watches may be required for parts of this area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 87.3 West. Colin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and
Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach
the coast of the Florida Big Bend area this afternoon or evening,
move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early
Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United
States later on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today before Colin
reaches the coast of Florida. Some slight strengthening is possible
on Tuesday when Colin is near the southeastern United States coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas
through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the
Florida east and Georgia coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area, as well as in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic
coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch
area on Tuesday.

TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

[RL3AO]

According to one of the extratropical storm surge models, the highest surge near Cedar Key will occur near low tide, which will keep water levels down a bit. Could have been quite a bit worse.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we are seeing A HIGHLY sheared MLC from the surface Low there to the East, its upper rotation and it occasionally attempts to form a Low at the surface there only to lose its ability due to the shear thus the main Low to the WNW remains the dominant surface Low.

[Evil Jeremy]

What a mess. Colin has now been trying to consolidate its LLC with the displaced MLC and vorticity cluster for 36 something hours, to no avail. I wonder how much longer the NHC will "split the difference" for...

[tailgater]

Well caveman, in this case with the cyclone being asymmetric, the whole peninsula , with the exception of the extreme western panhandle , will be impacted with heavy rain and the threat for tornadoes. Center landfall in this case is not very relevant because all of the turbulent weathet is well removed on the eastern side of the cyclone. There will be some surge on the West Coast, but other than flood threat, quick spin-up tornadoes is my primary concern the next 12-20 hours.

Maybe not much of a tornado threat but the western panhandle is getting some pretty heavy rains.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[adam0983]

When or if should south Florida see any rain from Tropical Storm Colin. Will Miami dade broward and palm beach countries get any rain from this sheared mess of a storm.

[nativefloridian]

When or if should south Florida see any rain from Tropical Storm Colin. Will Miami dade broward and palm beach countries get any rain from this sheared mess of a storm.

I don't know, but since yesterday in Broward, it's been gray ugly skies and VERY hot and muggy. Oh.....we did get a minor sprinkle yesterday that lasted all of about one minute



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

When or if should south Florida see any rain from Tropical Storm Colin. Will Miami dade broward and palm beach countries get any rain from this sheared mess of a storm.

I don't know, but since yesterday in Broward, it's been gray ugly skies and VERY hot and muggy. Oh.....we did get a minor sprinkle yesterday that lasted all of about one minute



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

DP hit 79 last night...plus we have SAL in place so its really ugly out there.

[AdamFirst]

West Miami has been bone dry all weekend. Weak bands moved to the east last night over the Bahamas, while the west coast had those training bands. SE coast seems like is stuck in a dry slot.

[NDG]

When or if should south Florida see any rain from Tropical Storm Colin. Will Miami dade broward and palm beach countries get any rain from this sheared mess of a storm.

I don't know, but since yesterday in Broward, it's been gray ugly skies and VERY hot and muggy. Oh.....we did get a minor sprinkle yesterday that lasted all of about one minute



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

DP hit 79 last night...plus we have SAL in place so its really ugly out there.

Saw this morning that coastal SE FL did not got below the low 80s all night long, with such high dewpoints the heat index must have stayed in the low 90s, wow!

[nativefloridian]

I don't know, but since yesterday in Broward, it's been gray ugly skies and VERY hot and muggy. Oh.....we did get a minor sprinkle yesterday that lasted all of about one minute



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

DP hit 79 last night...plus we have SAL in place so its really ugly out there.

Saw this morning that coastal SE FL did not got below the low 80s all night long, with such high dewpoints the heat index must have stayed in the low 90s, wow!

Yep.....this morning at 7am the temperature reading in my car said it was 87 degrees outside.

[caneman]

Looks to be falling apart. Good. Lessen the impacts of rain and surge.

[Patrick99]

It doesn't seem like we will get much in South Florida. Anything from Colin that tries to edge closer to the peninsula seems to fall apart. Over the past week or so it feels like there's been a rain shield over the whole SE coast.

[drewschmaltz]

Another big blow up of convection to the south and the mid levels still strong displaced to the east. What a difficult forecast for Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

This looks pitiful. Dueling CoCs are becoming irrelevant, this is just a big blob of rain and wind.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

local mets saying that the center is in the process of relocating further to the east, closer to the big convection, and the surface wind map shows a kidney shaped center now as this process is underway. So I suspect a center to cross the FL coast further east down the road. Not that the landfall point is significant per se, as this storm is all displaced east anyway. lots of rain/coastal flooding is expected in tampa bay. we already had a good 3 inches since late yesterday afternoon just due to the typical storms we often see each night in Clearwater at this time of year. a few pics on the news of downed trees already.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

How can Colin consolidate when the vorticity is so broad?