ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

It's amazing to see what a TW does to defend itself and fight for survival and establish dominance.

[gtalum]

Relax. Have a drink. Meanwhile it bears watching.

[Tireman4]

Relax. Have a drink. Meanwhile it bears watching.

Finally a post I can get behind. Gracious. Long way out. Lots of information to be fed into the computers. Lots of time for all factors to come together.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

I see its continuing to organize more and more. if this gets to be a decent TS before passing PR and enters the bahamas already a TS then east coast florida may be looking at more than a cat 1

[Blown Away]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


TAFB 48 Hour Position...

Not a sure thing 99L misses Hispaniola... GFS predicts it...

[Spirit29]

Just want to say thanks to everyone for their analysis. I've learned a lot from storm2k!

My question is - what determines how far west in the GOM this storm could go? If the ridge that's building is mostly on the east coast of Florida, wouldn't it just cross Florida and then head for the big bend?

[Siker]

I see its continuing to organize more and more. if this gets to be a decent TS before passing PR and enters the bahamas already a TS then east coast florida may be looking at more than a cat 1

Aric, what are your thoughts on center consolidation leading to a higher chance of interaction with Hispaniola?

[Bocadude85]

Was just checking my local forecast for this weekend and noticed they have increased the rain chances and added the word "Windy" to the forecast...not a big deal but that wording was not there earlier today.

Sunday NightShowers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
MondayShowers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.09091440079987&lat=26.28080120979547#.V7y3WXj3aK0

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, it might actually get shredded by Hispaniola.

[TheStormExpert]

Was just checking my local forecast for this weekend and noticed they have increased the rain chances and added the word "Windy" to the forecast...not a big deal but that wording was not there earlier today.

Sunday NightShowers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
MondayShowers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.09091440079987&lat=26.28080120979547#.V7y3WXj3aK0

Same goes for where I'm located in Palm Beach Gardens, FL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=26.8233946&lon=-80.13865469999996&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Palm%20Beach%20Gardens%2C%20FL%2C%20USA#.V7y4HMT3anM

Monday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[Aric Dunn]

I see its continuing to organize more and more. if this gets to be a decent TS before passing PR and enters the bahamas already a TS then east coast florida may be looking at more than a cat 1

Aric, what are your thoughts on center consolidation leading to a higher chance of interaction with Hispaniola?

read back a few pages

[JaxGator]

Wouldn't the new center (still moving WNW as said by NHC in their last outlook) miss Hispaniola just to the north near the Mona Passage or north of that?

[Blown Away]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THRU FRI...
Upr lvl wind analysis shows a troffing pattern over the wrn CONUS
with a 60-70KT H30-H20 jet streak extending from the Desert SW to
the Midwest. The lifting nature of this fairly weak jet pattern will
not be able to dislodge a deep H100-H50 anticyclone currently
dominating the WX pattern acrs the SE CONUS/Nrn GOMex. As such...the
anticyclone will remain the dominant WX feature for central FL
through the latter half of the work week.

Position of the anticyclone will maintain an E/NE flow thru the H100-
H70 lyr...a flow regime that typically results in little deep
convection for east central FL. Upstream analysis shows a low lvl
moisture band assocd with a dissipating frontal boundary that will
advect into central FL under the NE flow...providing the lcl airmass
with sufficient fuel to keep sct PoPs in the fcst. However...H70
temps btwn 10-11C and H50 temps arnd -5C suggest sluggish
thermodynamic support. Indeed...avg lapse rates thru the H85-H50 lyr
arnd 5.5C/KM confirm tsra potential will be isold at best.

Precip will be tied to the diurnal heating cycle with best chcs in
the mrng/early aftn along the Space/Treasure coasts...inland
counties mid to late afternoon. Coastal/marine areas will see
chc/slgt chc shras overnight. Strong maritime influence will keep
aftn max temps in the L/M90s...overnight mins in the M/U70s.

EXTENDED...(modified prev disc)
A long period of onshore flow is indicated through the upcoming
weekend with increasing wind speeds forecast by Sunday along with
sct shras/isold tsras during the period. Guidance consensus through
the medium range supports a strong enough ridge over the NE Conus
and WRN Atlc well into next week to prevent a developing cyclone
(current invest area 99L) from recurving into the open Atlc east of
the FL peninsula.

One should note that the GFS and ECMWF both show development of this
system as it encounters a more favorable tropical cyclone
environment in the vcnty of the Bahama Bank. The 23/12Z ECMWF
remains much more aggressive with its development and progress...
bringing the system acrs the south half of the FL peninsula btwn 00Z
Sun/12Z Mon...then into the NE GOMex 12Z Mon/12Z Tue. On the other
hand...the 23/12Z GFS fails to indicate any organized system at
all...insisting on a broad inverted sfc trof passing over the
Bahamas/FL peninsula. Forthcoming model runs hopefully will come
into better agreement through mid week. Decision makers should
remain alert to the possibility of a developing tropical system
approaching the Bahamas this weekend.

[gatorcane]

What we see at 16N is probably going to stay at the mid-levels, models seem pretty keen on the 850m vorticity consolidating a bit further north and missing Hispaniola to the north even if barely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Aric Dunn]

Wouldn't the new center (still moving WNW as said by NHC in their last outlook) miss Hispaniola just to the north near the Mona Passage or north of that?

wnw to NW yes. but any slight wobbles west bring ever closer to getting to close to HR>

[Alyono]

Wouldn't the new center (still moving WNW as said by NHC in their last outlook) miss Hispaniola just to the north near the Mona Passage or north of that?

ECMWF has it missing PR even with initializing it at 15N

[TheStormExpert]

I know vorticity might be consolidating further north but 16N, 58W does look interesting hmmm...

[Siker]

I see its continuing to organize more and more. if this gets to be a decent TS before passing PR and enters the bahamas already a TS then east coast florida may be looking at more than a cat 1

Aric, what are your thoughts on center consolidation leading to a higher chance of interaction with Hispaniola?

read back a few pages

Looks like probably not but I can't really tell

[JaxGator]

Wouldn't the new center (still moving WNW as said by NHC in their last outlook) miss Hispaniola just to the north near the Mona Passage or north of that?

wnw to NW yes. but any slight wobbles west bring ever closer to getting to close to HR>

Thank you Aric. You're analysis and insight are much appreciated. That motion would still be bad for the islands, the Bahamas and Florida then if nothing else happens.

[TheStormExpert]

850mb vorticity still elongated and stretched out NW-SE.