ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stephen23]

What have I missed overnight? Just waking up. See that it is still maintaining a 317 degree heading as it has since 7pm last night making landfall about 25 miles north of Jupiter. See that the pressure has dropped quite a bit overnight. Are they still expecting this to come ashore as a cat 4?

[Aric Dunn]

What'll be the strength at 11 AM, you guys think?

135-140 mph, which leaves me worried about an easy ramp up back to Cat 5 after it clears Andros.

andros will have no affect on the strengthening of it.

[TropicalSailor]

is there seriously not continuous recon flights? there is going to be a 2 hour gap here.

I was just thinking about this. I think that might be a rare screw up on the NOAA/AF communication.

[TheStormExpert]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

[Hamanard]

is there seriously not continuous recon flights? there is going to be a 2 hour gap here.

Sure looks like it. AF mission #27 is gaining altitude and leaving. We got one plane from Tampa heading there and one more from St Croix about to depart. One of them at least has to be a low level mission. Very strange to not have a continues fix until landfall.

[TropicalSailor]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

I think the chances are strong. Definitely too close for comfort. Get gone IMO

[TheStormExpert]

What'll be the strength at 11 AM, you guys think?

135-140 mph, which leaves me worried about an easy ramp up back to Cat 5 after it clears Andros.

andros will have no affect on the strengthening of it.

Unfortunately not, Andros Island is mostly marsh-like I believe.

[dhweather]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

I would be getting my evacuation plans finalized. Do not be wishing you had evacuated because it "was only a 3 or 4".

[Aric Dunn]

the eyewall on radar is becoming extremely intense and the solid oranges and red have nearly filled in around it.. not good... next recon might find sub 930 pressures and winds wont be far behind..

took a little wobble to nnw there now the west end of Nassau is in the heaviest part of the eyewall.. not good. JOsh and the other guy are going to get some good video hopefully.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

is there seriously not continuous recon flights? there is going to be a 2 hour gap here.

I was just thinking about this. I think that might be a rare screw up on the NOAA/AF communication.

They are on 3 hour fixes now, from 6 hour, so this is normal. There would not have been a NOAA research mission right now anyway, even if the P-3 didn't have to substitute for the G-IV which is down for unscheduled maintenance.

[DelrayMorris]

Publix staying open normal hours all over SFL. Nothing like the almighty dollar. My son called in at 5pm to 11

Yes the almighty dollar but you also will have people wanting to get supplies. Unfortunately last minute planning is a disease. If they showed up to locked doors, we would criticize Publix for not being there for the community. Also, the same almighty dollar will be trucking in water and relief to assist recovery. I have been part of this in the past. Rant over!

We've been looking for ice and bread since Monday. Nothing, nowhere.

Publix just got a shipment of both.... so my husband went to get some. It's not always last minute planning, and I'm glad that Publix is open to bring in the supplies that we don't have.

I'm sure the employees aren't happy, but the supplies are very much needed.

[stephen23]

I see that they found 130mph sustained surface winds on their way out after last center fix

[Ken711]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago

We have strong cat 4 at landfall, crossing the gulf stream could see this go sub 920 and cat 5.

[gatorcane]

Deep convection right around the eye about ready to wrap, this thing is intensifying and the Gulf Stream awaits

[northjaxpro]

WOW!!! What an extremely impressive tropical cyclone!! Extremely impressive and dynamic satellite appearance. I am just completely awestruck and completely inprayer for me, my family and everyone in the path of this beast!

I am unfortunately fearing that Matthew will make landfall on the East Central Florida coast as a Category 5 cyclone!

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/784011191282577409

[tolakram]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

Why are you still there? It is going through an area where Andrew became a 5, this is not something that should be messed around with, the forecasting of these things is just not good enough to know exactly what will happen.

[TheStormExpert]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

I would be getting my evacuation plans finalized. Do not be wishing you had evacuated because it "was only a 3 or 4".

Well we fared VERY well for Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma in terms of our house. By the way it's a solid Concrete Built House with a tiled roof in a uniform development. In fact most in this community are not evacuating that we know of. What's your take?

[Sanibel]

Category 5 is unpredictable at the moment in my opinion because the hurricane is showing signs of lacking wind speeds and dropping pressure at the same time. Hard call. So far it hasn't made category 4.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[meriland23]

Holy canoli!!! I just woke up and like, what the heck did I miss man?! So max sustained at 125, so bumped up 10 mph and I see the MB looks like it's dropping about 2-4 per 30 minutes?? Yikes man, obviously it did catch up with itself. I would not at all be surprised if this gets neck and neck with florida as a cat 5 at this rate..