ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Category 5 is unpredictable at the moment in my opinion because the hurricane is showing signs of lacking wind speeds and dropping pressure at the same time. Hard call. So far it hasn't made category 4.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

You should know better though. Pressure drops before winds, that is how they strengthen.

[MississippiWx]

Deep convection right around the eye about ready to wrap, this thing is intensifying and the Gulf Stream awaits

Yep. He hasn't even reached the Gulf Stream yet. Just added fuel to the fire.

[Aric Dunn]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

I would be getting my evacuation plans finalized. Do not be wishing you had evacuated because it "was only a 3 or 4".

Well we fared VERY well for Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma in terms of our house. By the way it's a solid Concrete Built House with a tiled roof in a uniform development. In fact most in this community are not evacuating that we know of. What's your take?

cat 4/5 winds are capable of tearing down concrete structures.

[TheStormExpert]

Category 5 is unpredictable at the moment in my opinion because the hurricane is showing signs of lacking wind speeds and dropping pressure at the same time. Hard call. So far it hasn't made category 4.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I'd be surprised if this wasn't upgraded to a minimal 130mph Cat.4 @11am.

[CourierPR]

Category 5 is unpredictable at the moment in my opinion because the hurricane is showing signs of lacking wind speeds and dropping pressure at the same time. Hard call. So far it hasn't made category 4.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Did you mean to say, "lagging wind speeds"?

[JPmia]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

I would be getting my evacuation plans finalized. Do not be wishing you had evacuated because it "was only a 3 or 4".

Well we fared VERY well for Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma in terms of our house. By the way it's a solid Concrete Built House with a tiled roof in a uniform development. In fact most in this community are not evacuating that we know of. What's your take?

If they call for an evacuation.. evacuate. I love hurricanes, but not Cat 4s-5s.

[Ken711]

Category 5 is unpredictable at the moment in my opinion because the hurricane is showing signs of lacking wind speeds and dropping pressure at the same time. Hard call. So far it hasn't made category 4.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I'd be surprised if this wasn't upgraded to a minimal 130mph Cat.4 @11am.

Very possible unfortunately.

[hurricaneCW]

Although it's impossible to know if it'll be a category 5 upon landfall, it's smaller size and passage over the gulf stream makes it more likely than normal. Because it's compact most of the energy is centered in its eyewall so it's very Andrew-like in distribution. More focused energy could equal stronger winds inside that wall. I suspect that whoever gets hit by the eyewall will see complete destruction.

[Sanibel]

You should know better though. Pressure drops before winds, that is how they strengthen.

True. For years I have been trumpeting Gulf Stream boosting and most of the time it fails to appear. Probably the one time I underplay it it will burst over the Gulf Stream...Hurricanes are fickle creatures and we'll see what it does shortly...Perhaps a pressure drop prior to the Gulf Stream is a tight spring waiting to snap.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Batt2fd]

Link: https://youtu.be/GDDVJj1Pay8

[GCANE]

Eyewall is really going to town - that hot tower did the trick, like usual.

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/fl ... r_long.gif

[Chris_in_Tampa]

is there seriously not continuous recon flights? there is going to be a 2 hour gap here.

Sure looks like it. AF mission #27 is gaining altitude and leaving. We got one plane from Tampa heading there and one more from St Croix about to depart. One of them at least has to be a low level mission. Very strange to not have a continues fix until landfall.

Next Air Force mission is already on the way. I didn't realize. At 10:38am EDT, it was 38 miles to the SSE from Gulfport, MS.

NOAA P-3 had landed earlier. It will likely takeoff again around 1:30pm ED to 2pm EDT. The G-IV was undergoing maintenance, and I don't know when it will be available again. So the P-3 might do another G-IV mission track around the storm rather than into the storm as a research mission.

The Air Force aircraft in St. Croix is either an aircraft that will head back to Keesler AFB, after having been in Matthew earlier in the storm's life, or is one going there for later, for perhaps the area east of the Lesser Antilles. I would think going back to Keesler.

[1900hurricane]

Just for the record, 12Z working best track update had Matthew back up to 115 kt. NHC's advisory should be at least that intense.

[MississippiWx]

For the next couple of hours, keep an eye on that NW quadrant. It has been a little ragged on satellite. If it's able to become more uniform with the rest of the CDO, then you'll start having to worry about Cat 5. Cat 5's have a perfect appearance in satellite imagery. Matthew is making progress in that direction, but it's not there yet.

[delta lady]

EricBlake1242 secs
@Wxmanms1 @MichaelRLowry and the 700 mb height fell 36 meters in 100 minutes. That isn't good.

Hummm...that isn't good at all. Will try to post storm reports until it gets too dangerous to do so.

I have a sister and Uncle that live in Jacksonville, one on each side of the river, I know my sister (near Orange Park) is gonna be staying put and I don't know if my Uncle is in town or not (he works all over the world) but hope everything is fine for them.

They have added a zone C to Duval/Jax. It basically covers all areas along the St John's River and it's tributaries. One good thing for your sister is that the time Matthew is forecast to pass Jax we will be in a 'low tide' . Not that it means much. When I first moved to Jax I was 50 feet away from the Trout River. A tributary into the St John's River. A MINOR cane that we were barely in the fringes of, brought the water to within 4 inches of the top of the sea wall.

[hipshot]

Please do not say this could become a Cat.5, where I am in Palm Beach Gardens I am just 4miles from the coast and in an evacuation zone for a Cat.5 so I am praying that it struggles to intensify if at all.

I would be getting my evacuation plans finalized. Do not be wishing you had evacuated because it "was only a 3 or 4".

At this late date, you could have real problems getting out of Dodge, seen issues with several wrecks on I-95.

[1900hurricane]

Off-white pixel spotted in the eye.

[mpic]

Live cams operational for now http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/mia ... iamibeach1

[AlabamaDave]

What Andrew did. So y'all are STAYING for this?

[Aric Dunn]

For the next couple of hours, keep an eye on that NW quadrant. It has been a little ragged on satellite. If it's able to become more uniform with the rest of the CDO, then you'll start having to worry about Cat 5. Cat 5's have a perfect appearance in satellite imagery. Matthew is making progress in that direction, but it's not there yet.

that is not true.. the sat appearance when it was a cat 5 was quite ragged. looks are not everything. it could easily make cat 5..