ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

So we now have a very strong Cat 4 at 140

[TheStormExpert]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

[dukeblue219]

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,
and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data
from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the
hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened. The initial
intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data
and an eyewall dropsonde.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
intensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of
Florida. After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some
weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a
more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above
most of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent
intensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus
thereafter.

Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or
325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew
is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36
hours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing
the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward
while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By
the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast
to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn
southward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 77.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 30.2N 81.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 31.7N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 28.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

[galaxy401]

This will be an insane night for Florida. I wish you all the best of luck and hope the worst avoids you...

Is wind shear suppose to become an issue for this storm or not until later?

[northjaxpro]

So we now have a very strong Cat 4 at 140

Yes we do. Unfortunately, he us going to get even stronger likely to Cat 5. The eyewall has yet toeven get to the Gulf Stream yet.

[MississippiWx]

So we now have a very strong Cat 4 at 140

Yeah, this definitely increases the possibility for Cat 5. Didn't expect 140mph so soon.

[Blinhart]

If the Cantore effect is true, we can now expect Ft. Pierce to be spared.

[1900hurricane]

Eye shade back up to medium grey in the 1437Z image. Trying to clear, but not quite there yet. On radar, the western eyewall echoes have filled in more, but now the southern part is looking a little weak, perhaps due to tracking so close to Andros Island. It'll be interesting to see how the eyewall responds to clearing the island.

[tolakram]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

You do realize that if the worst of the surge hits your area it's drowning you may have to be most worried about? It's all fun and games to guess about hurricanes when they aren't headed to your doorstep, but in this case why take the chance?

[Blinhart]

So we now have a very strong Cat 4 at 140

Yes we do. Unfortunately, he us going to get even stronger likely to Cat 5. The eyewall has yet toeven get to the Gulf Stream yet.

I was expecting landfall to be further South, but as a Cat 5 around 165 mph.

[KC7NEC]

[quote="TheStormExpert"]This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

Why are you even thinking of staying there?!?!?!?

[MississippiWx]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

Dude, leave! I know it's not convenient and I know it's not fun, but neither is death!!

[marye45]

Just announced that Universal Studios is closing at 5 and will remain closed tomorrow.

[windnrain]

Eye has cleared.

[Aric Dunn]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

yeah you should probably not be there...

[terstorm1012]

If the Cantore effect is true, we can now expect Ft. Pierce to be spared.

I dunno about the Cantore effect. Didn't he almost die in Biloxi with Katrina's surge? I wouldn't want him coming to my town.

[MGC]

140....not surprised. Could bet a bit stronger but I doubt Matt reaches Cat-5. If the eyewall get on shore there will be massive damage. On shore wind is going to drive massive waves onshore. Waves could reach second floor of building along the coast. Katrina like damage along the beach.......MGC

[Agua]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

Dude, leave. Seriously. Don't waste time thinking about it, just get out. Even if you don't drown or die from complete structural failure of your dwelling, you're going to be stranded for weeks. Go visit some relatives or friends out of state.

[ronyan]

The 11am advisory also increased the wind field some to 60/160 miles for hurricane/TS winds.

[jhpigott]

Looks like NHC track shifted east in the near term. Tracks closer to Freeport than Jupiter. Should (I emphasize "should") keep coastal Palm Beach County out of western eyewall.