ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

 https://twitter.com/spacebrendan/status/784023687779512320




If anyone has any contacts, can we attempt to get those 139 people out of there? Really? I don't care if NASA has a super awesome, state of the art bunker...there is NO reason 139 people should be staying behind. Period.

As a side note, here are what the facilities were originally designed for:

[meriland23]

125 to 140 in 3 hours? !

[TheStormExpert]

If there is any good news for folks in NE Palm Beach County it is that the track shifted further off the Coastline.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looks like NHC track shifted east in the near term. Tracks closer to Freeport than Jupiter. Should (I emphasize "should") keep coastal Palm Beach County out of western eyewall.

That's bad information. NHC track did not shift at all east.

[tolakram]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

Dude, leave. Seriously. Don't waste time thinking about it, just get out. Even if you don't drown or die from complete structural failure of your dwelling, you're going to be stranded for weeks. Go visit some relatives or friends out of state.

This needs to be stressed to everyone that is staying. I remember the anger after Wilma where people could not get food and water due to the damage and thinking what utter fools some of these people were. Do not be those people, inconvenience yourself for a few days and if your place is spared come back and tell us about it. Do you have food and fresh water that can last for days?

[TheStormExpert]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

Dude, leave. Seriously. Don't waste time thinking about it, just get out. Even if you don't drown or die from complete structural failure of your dwelling, you're going to be stranded for weeks. Go visit some relatives or friends out of state.

This needs to be stressed to everyone that is staying. I remember the anger after Wilma where people could not get food and water due to the damage and thinking what utter fools some of these people were. Do not be those people, inconvenience yourself for a few days and if your place is spared come back and tell us about it. Do you have food and fresh water that can last for days?

Yes.

[dukeblue219]

140....not surprised. Could bet a bit stronger but I doubt Matt reaches Cat-5. If the eyewall get on shore there will be massive damage. On shore wind is going to drive massive waves onshore. Waves could reach second floor of building along the coast. Katrina like damage along the beach.......MGC

I concur that a Cat5 is unlikely, simply because it's HARD for any hurricane to maintain that strength, regardless of water temperature, particularly near any kind of land. It *could* happen, but the preparations and evacuations should be the same either way. I hope people remember that Katrina made landfall with 125mph sustained winds, and was weakening at the time. New Orleans' damage was a special case, but Katrina also obliterated gulf coastal Mississippi. The winds are but one factor. A 125mph storm and a 155mph storm can be equally devastating depending on where they hit and how the storm surge develops.

I hope nobody is riding this thing out hoping it will be "just" a cat3 or cat4.

[galvbay]

This is where I'm located just to get an idea.

[im g]http://i64.tinypic.com/11t7lav.jpg[/img]

Dude, leave! I know it's not convenient and I know it's not fun, but neither is death!!

This!
Do not mess around. Leave asap.

[La Sirena]

 https://twitter.com/spacebrendan/status/784023687779512320




If anyone has any contacts, can we attempt to get those 139 people out of there? Really? I don't care if NASA has a super awesome, state of the art bunker...there is NO reason 139 people should be staying behind. Period.

As a side note, here are what the facilities were originally designed for:

I understand the adrenaline junkie aspect but that's damn near suicidal. I hope they've written their pertinent information on their arm. Terrible decision.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Recon appears to be turning around and heading back to base...

[Ken711]

The 11am NHC track shows the loop back heading SW towards the Bahamas.

[terstorm1012]

125 to 140 in 3 hours? !

rapid intensification for ya.

But I think I was on this site the night Humberto (2007) went from nothing to a very strong Cat 1 in 6 hours. That was wild.

[ROCK]

140....not surprised. Could bet a bit stronger but I doubt Matt reaches Cat-5. If the eyewall get on shore there will be massive damage. On shore wind is going to drive massive waves onshore. Waves could reach second floor of building along the coast. Katrina like damage along the beach.......MGC

I concur that a Cat5 is unlikely, simply because it's HARD for any hurricane to maintain that strength, regardless of water temperature, particularly near any kind of land. It *could* happen, but the preparations and evacuations should be the same either way. I hope people remember that Katrina made landfall with 125mph sustained winds, and was weakening at the time. New Orleans' damage was a special case, but Katrina also obliterated gulf coastal Mississippi. The winds are but one factor. A 125mph storm and a 155mph storm can be equally devastating depending on where they hit and how the storm surge develops.

I hope nobody is riding this thing out hoping it will be "just" a cat3 or cat4.

oh he will make a run at a cat 5....already winds catching up to pressure drop. Andrew bombed over the GS as it approach FL...lets not forget

[ronjon]

Looks like NHC track shifted east in the near term. Tracks closer to Freeport than Jupiter. Should (I emphasize "should") keep coastal Palm Beach County out of western eyewall.

This hits the forecast point of NHC - I don't see Palm Beach County escaping the west eyewall.

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php

[Chris_in_Tampa]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[Blinhart]

The reason people are saying the cone shifted, is because it actually narrowed like normal, The edges move in as it gets closer to actual land fall because the margin of error is reduced.

[Ken711]

Looks like NHC track shifted east in the near term. Tracks closer to Freeport than Jupiter. Should (I emphasize "should") keep coastal Palm Beach County out of western eyewall.

This hits the forecast point of NHC - I don't see Palm Beach County escaping the west eyewall.

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php

Freeport in the Bahamas is going to feel the NE quandrant as it passes.

[marye45]

Godspeed to everyone in its path

[KC7NEC]

 https://twitter.com/spacebrendan/status/784023687779512320




If anyone has any contacts, can we attempt to get those 139 people out of there? Really? I don't care if NASA has a super awesome, state of the art bunker...there is NO reason 139 people should be staying behind. Period.

As a side note, here are what the facilities were originally designed for:

I understand the adrenaline junkie aspect but that's damn near suicidal. I hope they've written their pertinent information on their arm. Terrible decision.

This is not just a random group. they are highly trained, have a extremely well-built bunker, supplies, and everything needed. They have to stay. There are certain critical facilities there that if damaged could be a disaster all on its own not counting the hurricane. This storm is going to devastate the space industry for months

[abajan]

While Matthew is not clearing out its eye in a harry right now, the very warm waters of gulf stream will likely play a crucial role in strengthening like it did to Andrew.

Next SW to NE pass from recon should find much stronger winds. Absolutely dire situation for Florida

And it's worth noting that whereas Andrew cut across the gulf stream, this will be travelling along the stream. As such, the potential for additional intensification is certainly high. According to the latest advisory from the NHC, the maximum sustained winds are already at the 140 mph I predicted they would be by the time Matthew reached the Florida coast. Folks, I now think there's a very real possibility that we could be looking at a Cat 5 traversing a highly populated area. Pray that the eye stays offshore, because I've seen YouTube videos of Cat 5s blowing down concrete walls. So, if you can leave, leave. A house can be rebuilt, but a life ... well, I think you know what I was going to say next.