ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

NW quad looks improved in the last frame, we'll see if that can persist but ragged and thin look hasn't seemed to matter much so far.

[Scorpion]

This is my location for what its worth. No option but to ride it out.

[crm6360]

Andrew bombed over the GS as it approach FL...lets not forget

Most objective evidence points to a completion of an ERC as the reason for Andrew's last-minute intensification. It's become something of a myth that the Gulf Stream has magical properties. The waters in the Bahamas are perfectly warm enough to support a Cat 4/5 hurricane, Gulf Stream or not.

[dexterlabio]

Watching the news right now, looks like it's getting quite windy at the West Palm Beach. Is that windy condition already a direct effect of Matthew?

[windnrain]

Matthew heading to very warm SSTs

[meriland23]

I agree that cat 5 hurricanes are hard to maintain, however, at least in Matthews case, has been easy to reach. This rapid intensification overnight is very reminiscent of the beginning of Matthew and how quickly he blew up to a cat 5. Seeing as he bumped up a whopping 15 mph in a mere few hours makes me very confident that he will achieve Cat 5 status today. I'm not a professional, but I mean, look at it..look at the radar. Its insane and looking meaner every minute.

[crm6360]

NW quad looks improved in the last frame, we'll see if that can persist but ragged and thin look hasn't seemed to matter much so far.

I wish a met would chime in on why its appearance has continued to look ragged ever since it emerged from Cuba. Obviously it's strengthening and cosmetic appearances probably are secondary, but relatively speaking this is the most unimpressive Cat 4 that I've seen just judging from IR. Has it been dealing with modest NW shear? Most of the convection and feeders seem confined to the S and SW quadrants.

[brunota2003]

https://twitter.com/spacebrendan/status/784023687779512320

If anyone has any contacts, can we attempt to get those 139 people out of there? Really? I don't care if NASA has a super awesome, state of the art bunker...there is NO reason 139 people should be staying behind. Period.

As a side note, here are what the facilities were originally designed for:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuFnOTfW8AA ... name=large

I understand the adrenaline junkie aspect but that's damn near suicidal. I hope they've written their pertinent information on their arm. Terrible decision.

This is not just a random group. they are highly trained, have a extremely well-built bunker, supplies, and everything needed. They have to stay. There are certain critical facilities there that if damaged could be a disaster all on its own not counting the hurricane. This storm is going to devastate the space industry for months

They are on a spit of land that will likely be completely covered in 6-9ft of water, and what is above water will likely be ravaged by 120+ mph sustained winds and gusts of 140+ mph. It doesn't matter if they are physically there or not, at that point there is literally NOTHING anyone can do. Button it all up the best you can and get EVERYONE OUT.

[bg1]

I've been seeing the models come to an almost consensus that the east turn will occur farther up the SC coast, yet the NHC's cone seems to put the turn near the GA/SC line. I wonder why. Are they waiting for another set of runs? I'm concerned as I live 45 miles NW of Charleston.

[1900hurricane]

Uhhh...

[Hamanard]

Might be a while before we have another recon pass. Seems like the aircraft out of Kessler AFB is turning around...

[MississippiWx]

Uhhh...

They forgot to wait until I got on the plane. Coming back for me.

[miamijaaz]

Looks like a west-northwest wobble on radar. Might just clip the north end of Andros island.

[MGC]

140....not surprised. Could bet a bit stronger but I doubt Matt reaches Cat-5. If the eyewall get on shore there will be massive damage. On shore wind is going to drive massive waves onshore. Waves could reach second floor of building along the coast. Katrina like damage along the beach.......MGC

I concur that a Cat5 is unlikely, simply because it's HARD for any hurricane to maintain that strength, regardless of water temperature, particularly near any kind of land. It *could* happen, but the preparations and evacuations should be the same either way. I hope people remember that Katrina made landfall with 125mph sustained winds, and was weakening at the time. New Orleans' damage was a special case, but Katrina also obliterated gulf coastal Mississippi. The winds are but one factor. A 125mph storm and a 155mph storm can be equally devastating depending on where they hit and how the storm surge develops.

I hope nobody is riding this thing out hoping it will be "just" a cat3 or cat4.

oh he will make a run at a cat 5....already winds catching up to pressure drop. Andrew bombed over the GS as it approach FL...lets not forget

Andrew had a very strong high to its north helping to increase the pressure gradient. That is not the case here. Sure it is possible for Matt to get to Cat-5 but that is a very rare event......MGC

[snowpocalypse]

Latest track looks worse for Jax with proximity and intensity

[Agua]

Uhhh...

They said NOPE, NOPE NOPE

[Nimbus]

Major squall line coming into FT Lauderdale now.
Probably 50 knot winds.

[img]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=AMX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
[/img]

[url]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=AMX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
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[Sanibel]

Probably a mechanical return to base...

[jlauderdal]

Major squall line coming into FT Lauderdale now.
Probably 50 knot winds.

[img]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=AMX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
[/img]

[url]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=AMX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.622&noclutter=0&t=1180778261&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=31&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=472&centery=243&transx=72&transy=3&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
[/url]

just to my east, no rain but i can see the darkening clouds

[psyclone]

Latest track looks worse for Jax with proximity and intensity

Jax's Hurr wind probs went up a lot...now 25%. Orlando is now at 40%!