ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

This looks pitiful. Dueling CoCs are becoming irrelevant, this is just a big blob of rain and wind.

Yeah just spotted another one (about 150 miles) west of Tampa, looks to be rotating around the main center.

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop. Keep in mind any circulation from this range would be at the mid levels.

[AdamFirst]

Walking to class this morning, you could cut the air with a knife where the breeze wasn't blowing into. Extremely muggy.

[ObsessedMiami]

It really is amazing how nasty humid it is over SFL and not a drop of rain. Is that the SAL or just luck of the draw?

[floridasun78]

no rain south fl i see staying off keywest

[tolakram]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=750&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

Looks like an (one of many) LLC could be near where I drew the yellow arrow showing west cloud movement. Clouds are thickening in that area. Note jet streak just NW of that, screaming to the NE.

[cycloneye]

Here comes a good line of bad weather to the Tampa/Ft Myers area..Can't discount an isolated tornado

[StormHunter72]

Anybody else really sore?...arthritis is really acting up.

[Alyono]

Another big blow up of convection to the south and the mid levels still strong displaced to the east. What a difficult forecast for Florida.

the forecast for Florida is about as easy as it will ever be. High winds and heavy rain.

Pay no attention to the center

[linkerweather]

Another big blow up of convection to the south and the mid levels still strong displaced to the east. What a difficult forecast for Florida.

the forecast for Florida is about as easy as it will ever be. High winds and heavy rain.

Pay no attention to the center

Well said Alyono.....
Nothing has changed with the forecast regardless of track center (or lack thereof)

[Jam151]

Models nailed this rain event a week out with little to no change. Can't get much intensification when the jet stream is racing through an exposed center.

[ronjon]

Heavy squalls about to reach downtown St Pete and Pinellas County Beaches.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Evil Jeremy]

Im eagerly anticipating the 11am discussion... I wonder which "center" the NHC rolls with this time.

[RL3AO]

Im eagerly anticipating the 11am discussion... I wonder which "center" the NHC rolls with this time.

I believe they've been taking a "mean center" from satellite/recon.

[psyclone]

this system is way underperforming my already paltry expectations. What a disaster. No sustained, gradient induced TS winds are likely to be recorded at any land station, even those directly on the coast in a region of onshore flow. the squall line approaching Tampa bay will be our highlight (actually looks decent). we can call it a ts if we want...but it's clear that duck ain't quacking. BTW my current ob is cloudy with terrifying sustained winds estimated at 4mph gusting to 6mph.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galaxy401]

this system is way underperforming my already paltry expectations. What a disaster. No sustained, gradient induced TS winds are likely to be recorded at any land station, even those directly on the coast in a region of onshore flow. the squall line approaching Tampa bay will be our highlight (actually looks decent). we can call it a ts if we want...but it's clear that duck ain't quacking. BTW my current ob is cloudy with terrifying sustained winds estimated at 4mph gusting to 6mph.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What?! An early June system disappointed you despite the flooding risk being expected to be worse then the wind risk even back when it first formed? I am quite shocked!!!!

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the center is almost due west of Clearwater Bch. and due South of Panama City Bch. racing NNE! 27.8N 86.6W

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from North of Altamaha Sound to South
Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings
or watches may be required for parts of this area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
estimated near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 87.0 West. Colin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
this afternoon. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and
Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach
the coast of the Florida Big Bend area late this afternoon or
evening, move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia
early Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the
United States later on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas
through Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to South Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic
coast within the warning area by early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a
classical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and
strong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, and
the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is,
is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several
small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The
initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight
aircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in
the system around 18z.

The strong southwesterly shear and very poor organization of the
system suggest that significant strengthening is not likely before
Colin reaches the coast of Florida later today. The global models
unanimously show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the
coast of the southeastern United States, likely due to
interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern
United States. Colin is forecast to complete extratropical
transition in about 48 hours.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 010/14 kt. Colin
is expected to accelerate northeastward later today. On Tuesday,
Colin is expected to move northeastward at an even faster forward
speed as it becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow ahead of
a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The
NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly northward from the
previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from
the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting
portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon well in advance of
the center's nearing the coast.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC would anticipate continuing advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 27.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 32.8N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 36.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 40.2N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 45.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 55.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[chaser1]

Im eagerly anticipating the 11am discussion... I wonder which "center" the NHC rolls with this time.

I'm guessing they'll stick with the "mean center" of the broad gyre though it would'nt take that much of an adjustment to the east should they begin to see evidence of the MLC to its east (I'd guess around 25.5 and 85.0) becoming dominant and/or working its way to the center. I'd be curious to see what recon might find should it fly right along 85W between 25.0 and 27.0. Given upper level conditions though, the only thing that might slightly negate that shear might be a tad bit of tightening up between Tampa and Ceder Key if motion were to take on a more "eastward component" at that time. Just hard to imagine that much structural improvement under present conditions.

[StormHunter72]

Actually you could not be more wrong psyclone .

This is Pasco County Schools calling to let parents know that we are dismissing students early based on the most recent weather information from the Pasco County Emergency Operations Center. It is likely that county government is shutting down around noon to get people off the road by 3. Wind gusts could be as high as 70 mph at times and there likely will be heavy rain beginning at 3 p.m. This is much different than the information we had when we made the decision to keep school open today. Following is the schedule for dismissal. Buses will be at schools, as follows:
10:30 a.m. Tier 1 schools, which are schools that start between 7:25 and 8 a.m.
11:30 a.m. Tier 2 schools, which are schools that start between 8:25 and 9 a.m.
12:30 Tier 3 schools, which are schools that start between 9:30 and 10 a.m.
Employees will be dismissed at 2 p.m.
Parents, please talk with your employers so that you can be at home when your children are delivered. We regret this inconvenience.