ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TPAcane]

About 30min ago had that strong band blast through New Port Richey. I was standing out in the garage watching the sky for rotation. It got real dark and all the street lights popped on. Wind picked up a little, some blustery rain, then it let up. I was amazed it was not worse for what the radar showed. So I close the garage door and head in the house and about a minute later this huge roar...I knew it was not rain. Ran to the window and everything was a white blur. Lasted about a minute if that and I would say up to 50mph estimated. One little pencil thin tree laying on the lawn from the edge of a preserve I live on. Ya know what...I am good with that. I think people tend to forget or have never experienced SUSTAINED high winds. That was a quick blast and it was kinda scary. For those near the eye of a hurricane it is surreal. You think how does a structure stand the pressure. Even a strong 60MPH sustained storm is frightening let alone a CAT 1. A lot of folks who have never experienced this and hopefully never will...they think these bands are a hurricane...never to experience the fright under a CDO. For those that say this is just a wimpy CAT 1...75-80mph or even 50mph sustained winds are very unnerving if not downright frightening. These bands always remind me of a big monster breathing, like a beast taunting, giving the storm almost a life force of its own...huffing and puffing. Always in awe....and again...prayers to those where this is headed....truly anything other than a strong winter cold front is not fun...

[ncbird]

My thoughts and prayers are with all down there. Stay safe my friends and check in when you are able.

NCBird

[ZX12R]

RAMSDIS floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Ruh Roh!

That does look menacing.

[Noles2016]

I'm thinking landfall near shell point 12-2 am?

Thinking Alligator Point has a bullseye on it.

[Frank P]

doing another ne wobble..

Yeap, another big NE wobble.

224130 2854N 08453W 6963 03026 9826 +156 +082 044001 004 013 000 03

Looks NNE to NE to me on radar... radar tells the story now on movement..

[tigerz3030]

Paging NorthJaxPro!! When are we to expect deteriorating conditions in St Augustine?

[tropicwatch]

NOAA Ascending and is out, AF on the way in.

[Evil Jeremy]

doing another ne wobble..

Yeap, another big NE wobble.

224130 2854N 08453W 6963 03026 9826 +156 +082 044001 004 013 000 03

Looks NNE to NE to me on radar... radar tells the story now on movement..

I'm also seeing a more eastern bend in the past hour of radar.

[HurricaneBelle]

I think people tend to forget or have never experienced SUSTAINED high winds. That was a quick blast and it was kinda scary. For those near the eye of a hurricane it is surreal. You think how does a structure stand the pressure. Even a strong 60MPH sustained storm is frightening let alone a CAT 1. A lot of folks who have never experienced this and hopefully never will...they think these bands are a hurricane...never to experience the fright under a CDO. For those that say this is just a wimpy CAT 1...75-80mph or even 50mph sustained winds are very unnerving if not downright frightening. These bands always remind me of a big monster breathing, like a beast taunting, giving the storm almost a life force of its own...huffing and puffing. Always in awe....and again...prayers to those where this is headed....truly anything other than a strong winter cold front is not fun...

This is why it always aggravates me when, say, a tropical storm is brewing and someone says "oh we get a 40 MPH wind in a summer thunderstorm". Yeah, for about one minute or less with some gusts. Not hours of 40 MPH winds, which is a completely different thing.

[drewschmaltz]

I know a few others have said this but thank goodness it didn't stack vertically just 24 hours sooner. If this had just 30 hours until landfall instead of 6...... I think we'd be looking at a major. Bad enough as it is.

[deltadog03]

doing another ne wobble..

Yeap, another big NE wobble.

224130 2854N 08453W 6963 03026 9826 +156 +082 044001 004 013 000 03

Looks NNE to NE to me on radar... radar tells the story now on movement..

I was about to say the same thing...Radar will be the best, besides recon, to see what's up. Sat images are fooling people I think...This looks at best NNE right now. I Still see a very slight east movement, but mainly a Northerly one.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012251
NOAA3 WXWXA HERMINE HDOB 23 20160901
224200 2853N 08451W 6961 03027 9826 +154 +083 215009 009 /// /// 03
224230 2851N 08451W 6967 03023 9828 +155 +070 226010 010 014 000 03
224300 2849N 08452W 6961 03027 9828 +154 +075 235009 009 016 000 00
224330 2847N 08453W 6960 03028 9830 +152 +076 247010 011 016 000 03
224400 2845N 08454W 6962 03028 9831 +152 +071 253012 012 018 000 00
224430 2843N 08455W 6962 03029 9835 +150 +075 261015 017 018 001 00
224500 2842N 08456W 6962 03031 9838 +148 +077 266022 023 020 001 00
224530 2840N 08457W 6961 03032 9843 +144 +087 271024 025 018 002 00
224600 2838N 08458W 6961 03035 9849 +139 +104 268028 029 023 002 00
224630 2836N 08458W 6943 03058 9852 +137 +102 265031 033 036 000 03
224700 2834N 08457W 6967 03035 9858 +134 +117 262037 039 041 002 00
224730 2832N 08456W 6949 03056 9861 +132 +108 257045 051 055 005 00
224800 2830N 08455W 6948 03060 9867 +127 //// 254059 065 061 015 01
224830 2828N 08454W 6944 03073 9878 +124 //// 260069 070 059 019 01
224900 2826N 08452W 6948 03071 9890 +120 //// 264069 070 058 007 01
224930 2824N 08451W 6951 03080 9904 +118 //// 263066 066 056 000 01
225000 2822N 08450W 6952 03086 9914 +121 +092 258066 066 056 000 00
225030 2820N 08449W 6958 03087 9928 +119 +079 256067 068 054 001 00
225100 2818N 08448W 6965 03086 9942 +114 +088 257066 066 052 002 00
225130 2816N 08446W 6959 03100 9952 +107 //// 257063 066 053 002 01

(70kt flight level gust west of center)

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012253
AF304 1409A HERMINE HDOB 04 20160901
224330 3016N 08747W 8373 01612 0082 +165 +134 036022 022 /// /// 03
224400 3015N 08743W 8373 01607 0076 +164 +130 041021 022 /// /// 03
224430 3015N 08740W 8374 01613 0079 +161 +130 046020 021 /// /// 03
224500 3015N 08738W 8374 01611 0083 +161 +137 053020 020 013 000 00
224530 3014N 08735W 8372 01615 0085 +160 +141 052021 022 013 000 00
224600 3014N 08733W 8377 01608 0084 +160 +145 053021 022 013 000 00
224630 3013N 08730W 8375 01611 0085 +156 +149 050020 021 013 000 00
224700 3013N 08728W 8373 01606 0083 +152 +149 046020 021 011 000 01
224730 3012N 08726W 8375 01611 0082 +158 +146 040021 023 014 000 00
224800 3012N 08723W 8371 01610 0081 +157 +149 040023 024 014 000 00
224830 3011N 08721W 8371 01611 0080 +160 +149 042024 025 014 001 00
224900 3011N 08718W 8375 01608 0078 +160 +152 036024 025 018 000 00
224930 3011N 08716W 8384 01600 //// +149 //// 032023 024 020 001 01
225000 3010N 08714W 8372 01607 0075 +159 +154 035022 023 018 002 05
225030 3010N 08711W 8372 01608 //// +153 //// 032021 023 017 000 01
225100 3009N 08709W 8371 01606 0076 +159 +153 037023 024 016 000 00
225130 3009N 08706W 8376 01605 //// +156 //// 035024 024 016 000 01
225200 3008N 08704W 8373 01606 //// +154 //// 039025 027 016 000 01
225230 3008N 08701W 8376 01600 0074 +159 +158 040029 030 015 000 01
225300 3007N 08659W 8372 01604 0074 +156 +153 036026 027 013 000 01

[NDG]

[tropicwatch]

Hermine's eye is looking impressive on enhanced satellite.

[Frank P]

Yeap, another big NE wobble.

224130 2854N 08453W 6963 03026 9826 +156 +082 044001 004 013 000 03

Looks NNE to NE to me on radar... radar tells the story now on movement..

I was about to say the same thing...Radar will be the best, besides recon, to see what's up. Sat images are fooling people I think...This looks at best NNE right now. I Still see a very slight east movement, but mainly a Northerly one.

This close to sure nothing beats radar for tracking the eye... relative to direction... and Ms Hermine has a pretty well defined eye to track too...

[NDG]

Yeap, another big NE wobble.

224130 2854N 08453W 6963 03026 9826 +156 +082 044001 004 013 000 03

Looks NNE to NE to me on radar... radar tells the story now on movement..

I was about to say the same thing...Radar will be the best, besides recon, to see what's up. Sat images are fooling people I think...This looks at best NNE right now. I Still see a very slight east movement, but mainly a Northerly one.

It has to track almost NNW now for your forecasted landfall spot to come true

[abajan]

It's a good thing this storm is quickly running out of open water because it could be a real monster with another 24 hours in these conditions. Also good that the current track keeps the center onshore as it moves up the east coast.

Its periphery will be pulling in moisture from the Gulf Stream though.

[RazorTracks]

RAMSDIS floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Ruh Roh!

I saved and enhanced the last frame of that satellite image to make up for some of the darkness, and, well, I'll just let it tell the story:



I'd say that's the best the eye has looked thus far.

[Aric Dunn]

doing another ne wobble..

Yeap, another big NE wobble.

224130 2854N 08453W 6963 03026 9826 +156 +082 044001 004 013 000 03

Looks NNE to NE to me on radar... radar tells the story now on movement..

no recon does..