ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jevo]

I was thinking that he may wobble around the North end of Andros as he has around the land he has interacted with so far; it appears that's exactly what he is doing right now.. Its probably just a one or two frame wobble wnw, but goes to show how skillful Matthew is at avoiding land.

[HurricaneEric]

is anyone in FL experiencing hurricane force winds as of yet? It's mighty close atm

Only tropical storm force gusts with these past couple bands but nothing sustained in Miami so far

[hurricaneCW]

It pains me to see people comparing hurricanes to blizzards. They obviously don't understand that water kills more than wind.

saved radar loop
[]http://i.imgur.com/d0iU4N5.gif[]

Honestly living in Nova Scotia, I've only dealt with minimal cane's making landfall here. But I can attest to having multiple weather bombs here that absolutely blew all of those Hurricanes combined out of the water as far as effects go. When a storm dumps 50 inches of snow on you, and gives you extremely powerful winds to boot, it's real ugly.

You don't drown in snow, the surge can wash homes and people away. This is why storm surge is the biggest killer.

Went through Sandy and that easily had more impact than all blizzards I've experienced combined all due to storm surge, there's no comparison. It's destruction vs. inconvenience.

[Alyono]

death toll nearly 100 in Haiti. Starting to skyrocket

Alyono - any thoughts on whether western core/cdo will brush the northern palm beach coastal area? Radar trends sure look like more of a nnw heading.

Just a wobble. Could easily wobble west.You're getting the CDO. No question about it. Question is, do you get the eyewall?

[Batt2fd]

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/fl ... r_long.gif

[tolakram]

I'm actually a little skeptical that much (if any) intensification has taken place since recon left. The eyewall presentation to the SW is still not up to the standard of the rest of the eyewall, and the CDO convection is still pulsing with sharp temp gradients. However, if it indeed has not strengthened, I think chances are good that Matthew will begin strengthening again once it moves away from Andros Island. It's not the biggest obstacle in the world, but with the small core passing so close, it may be impeding it some.

If you speed up the IR loop it really looks like the islands distorted part of the eyewall. Now that it's moving north things appear more stable again. ??

[TimeZone]

Went through Sandy and that easily had more impact than all blizzards I've experienced combined all due to storm surge, there's no comparison. It's destruction vs. inconvenience.[/quote]

Was Sandy even fully Tropical when it made landfall?

[znel52]

Sadly it looks like the United States major hurricane landfall drought is going to end with a bang. Would not surprise me at all if this thing hits Cat 5 before it comes ashore it is looking better and better all the time.

[tolakram]

Went through Sandy and that easily had more impact than all blizzards I've experienced combined all due to storm surge, there's no comparison. It's destruction vs. inconvenience.

Was Sandy even fully Tropical when it made landfall?

It doesn't matter. My point was the couple comparing it to a blizzard was obviously not thinking about the surge. 75% of all hurricane deaths occur due to surge and water, not wind. This isn't productive so we better just let it go.

[GCANE]

Outflow is improving on the eastern half of Matthew.

The ULLs over the Yucatan and Mid Carib seem to be taking shape which should enhance the equatorward outflow channel as Matthew gets over the Gulf Stream.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

[Tireman4]

Humm.....

Miami's South Beach ( yep, I was there in August)..

Note: There are people in the water...Humm

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/sou ... rida_5366/

[Frank P]

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/florida_radar_long.gif

Looks to me the last frame from this loop it went back to wnw... still step stepping towards the FL coast...

[NotoSans]

I agree that not much intensification has taken place since the last recon pass possibly due to land interaction, but the eye seems to be clearing out again with the NW quad of the CDO improving. I would expect at least gradual intensification in the near term.

[Sanibel]

The convection blob to its East is still with it and has a straight edge where it is hitting some kind of weather feature.

[hurricaneCW]

Surge could be particularly more destructive further north towards Georgia/SC coast due to shallower slopes.

[Michele B]

If the Cantore effect is true, we can now expect Ft. Pierce to be spared.

Hubs and i just said that!!!

bwaaa!! haaaa!!!

[gatorcane]

Western side of storm is growing

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/784073098559578113

[Michele B]

Did anyone just see that couple on the beach on TWC? They are thinking this is going to be nothing worse than a blizzard. Unbelievable...

Unfortunately there are large amount of people who have moved to Florida since the last major landfall who have no idea what to expect.

They seemed excited. His name is Milton Voss and they are snowbirds from Wisconsin. I looked him up on Facebook to try to follow how much they regret that decision in the coming days but cannot find a public profile for him.

Yeah, they went back to TWC Met and he just shook his head!

[KWT]

Exceptional situation unfolding here. The eyewall of a 4/5 making landfall at least and a real threat of a very rare us cat-5 landfall is present.

This maybe the big one that people refer back to for the 2010s...