ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

We may actually squeeze out a good sunset at this rate here on the west coast.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Im eagerly anticipating the 11am discussion... I wonder which "center" the NHC rolls with this time.

Satellite, buoy, and
the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is,
is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several
small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The
initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight
aircraft observations

[psyclone]

Actually you could not be more wrong psyclone .

This is Pasco County Schools calling to let parents know that we are dismissing students early based on the most recent weather information from the Pasco County Emergency Operations Center. It is likely that county government is shutting down around noon to get people off the road by 3. Wind gusts could be as high as 70 mph at times and there likely will be heavy rain beginning at 3 p.m. This is much different than the information we had when we made the decision to keep school open today. Following is the schedule for dismissal. Buses will be at schools, as follows:
10:30 a.m. Tier 1 schools, which are schools that start between 7:25 and 8 a.m.
11:30 a.m. Tier 2 schools, which are schools that start between 8:25 and 9 a.m.
12:30 Tier 3 schools, which are schools that start between 9:30 and 10 a.m.
Employees will be dismissed at 2 p.m.
Parents, please talk with your employers so that you can be at home when your children are delivered. We regret this inconvenience.

The same folks producing stuff like this are the one baffled by complacency. When the dust settles this will likely be another feather in a very big complacency cap for the bay area. I agree with those who have theorized that the convective blow up last night over the Yucatan really disrupted the system...the wheels seemed to really go off the rails shortly thereafter. and that convection continued to build south rather than get sucked into the system...it was very odd and quite interesting.

[linkerweather]

Actually you could not be more wrong psyclone .

This is Pasco County Schools calling to let parents know that we are dismissing students early based on the most recent weather information from the Pasco County Emergency Operations Center. It is likely that county government is shutting down around noon to get people off the road by 3. Wind gusts could be as high as 70 mph at times and there likely will be heavy rain beginning at 3 p.m. This is much different than the information we had when we made the decision to keep school open today. Following is the schedule for dismissal. Buses will be at schools, as follows:
10:30 a.m. Tier 1 schools, which are schools that start between 7:25 and 8 a.m.
11:30 a.m. Tier 2 schools, which are schools that start between 8:25 and 9 a.m.
12:30 Tier 3 schools, which are schools that start between 9:30 and 10 a.m.
Employees will be dismissed at 2 p.m.
Parents, please talk with your employers so that you can be at home when your children are delivered. We regret this inconvenience.

The same folks producing stuff like this are the one baffled by complacency. When the dust settles this will likely be another feather in a very big complacency cap for the bay area. I agree with those who have theorized that the convective blow up last night over the Yucatan really disrupted the system...the wheels seemed to really go off the rails shortly thereafter. and that convection continued to build south rather than get sucked into the system...it was very odd and quite interesting.

Pasco Co blew it. I was cringing listening to their Presser. There was a TS warning issued for them yesterday at 11 am! Now, they think that some big change occurred? What a bunch of dopes. Ok, back to work

[psyclone]

It's shocking. BTW keep up the great work Josh. We love bay news 9 with their no hype, just the facts delivery!

[pgoss11]

Here in Charleston SC we are looking for 6+ inches of rain with isolated areas near possibly 8 inches. The ground here is still pretty saturated from Bonnie so with tropical storm winds we might get some power outages here. They have have just changed us to tropical storm warnings from the watch because now they think the storm make track right along the coastline instead of offshore.

[StormHunter72]

:uarrow: It's shocking. BTW keep up the great work Josh. We love bay news 9 with their no hype, just the facts delivery!

I think he means they should have cancelled school today....yesterday

[caneman]

Josh, do you think we will really see 35 to 45 kt. Winds tonight? My weather alert radio is,saying to expect that.

[linkerweather]

:uarrow: It's shocking. BTW keep up the great work Josh. We love bay news 9 with their no hype, just the facts delivery!

I think he means they should have cancelled school today....yesterday

Perhaps...not questioning the decision but nothing new today, they were probably just lazy on a Sunday. Pinellas Co did the same thing. Ugh.

[caneman]

Power has been flickering on and off here all morning on IRB. Local Walgreens lost power. Seeing much of that Josh?

[psyclone]

we probably just gusted to about 45 mph here with brief "car wash" conditions in that squall line. very spicy

[linkerweather]

57 mph gust Bradenton Beach
50 mph St pete
48 mph Anna Maria Island

[NDG]

50 mph wind gusts along the coast near Venice, look at the temp, that's not from a squall.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

[tropicwatch]

Have received over 6 inches of rain at my house in Panama City so far.

[thundercam96]

The air is so thick here in Daytona Beach....

DP of 78
RH% of 83
Air Temp of 83.0

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty dry in Pompano Beach.

[chaser1]

Actually you could not be more wrong psyclone .

This is Pasco County Schools calling to let parents know that we are dismissing students early based on the most recent weather information from the Pasco County Emergency Operations Center. It is likely that county government is shutting down around noon to get people off the road by 3. Wind gusts could be as high as 70 mph at times and there likely will be heavy rain beginning at 3 p.m. This is much different than the information we had when we made the decision to keep school open today. Following is the schedule for dismissal. Buses will be at schools, as follows:
10:30 a.m. Tier 1 schools, which are schools that start between 7:25 and 8 a.m.
11:30 a.m. Tier 2 schools, which are schools that start between 8:25 and 9 a.m.
12:30 Tier 3 schools, which are schools that start between 9:30 and 10 a.m.
Employees will be dismissed at 2 p.m.
Parents, please talk with your employers so that you can be at home when your children are delivered. We regret this inconvenience.

The same folks producing stuff like this are the one baffled by complacency. When the dust settles this will likely be another feather in a very big complacency cap for the bay area. I agree with those who have theorized that the convective blow up last night over the Yucatan really disrupted the system...the wheels seemed to really go off the rails shortly thereafter. and that convection continued to build south rather than get sucked into the system...it was very odd and quite interesting.

What, no reference to risk of Locusts and fire from the sky too??

Psyclone, I could'nt agree with you more. Problem is that this complacency likely stems from a combination of factors. Public readiness and awareness to risk IS important however not to the point where the general public stops believing that "the wolves are really out there". Local authroities should'nt exagerate forecast conditions, less risk of the general public stop listening to them. The process does however begin from the top down and echoing what I posted several times yesterday, I just would'nt have been so quick to upgrade this system. Look, those of us with a greater knowledge of meteorology can appreciate the localized risks associated with a squall line or even strong tropical wave. Amply warning the general public to these risks have always been a challange though. Just seems to me that a better warning system based on some color code would identify levels of risk to a given area. The moment that more defined labels like tornado watch, Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, Flood Warning, etc start getting mass distributed to everyone's cell phones and the news, followed by yet another experience where the vast majority of that population end up claiming that they did NOT experience such anticipated conditions.... well, you're dead right - The complacency factor will only continue and worsen.

[cycloneye]

The TCPOD of 6/6/16.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 06 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JUNE 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-011

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73
       A. 07/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0503A COLIN
       C. 07/1530Z
       D. 34.5N 76.0W
       E. 07/1700Z TO 07/2100Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS:  THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH MISSION
       OVER COLIN TODAY, DEPARTING FROM KMCF AT 06/1800Z.


[wxman57]

Colin is about as poorly-organized as a storm could be. There's no core, only a broad area of 10-15kt winds well west of any convection. Convection is linear - it's not wrapping into a center. These are all signs of a highly-sheared system. As such, it probably wont change much before all the squalls move ashore this afternoon and this evening.