ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

I don't think moisture will be an issue with this one.

[Bocadude85]

The 18Z HWRF has a decent tropical storm going through the northern leewards in 18 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082318&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=331

[Tireman4]

Prepare for the LA and maybe TX posters to get a little more interested. Just a hunch.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Still too early. Thank you.

[SouthFLTropics]

So HWRF is running...does it go back to development or does it tank like the 12z...thoughts?

[northjaxpro]

Still a bit too soon to rule out any region for the poster Tigerz3030 in St. Augustine, Fl. Just last night's EURO runs had 99L.moving across South Florida west into the NE GOM before moving northeast across the Big Bend region. Today, the Euro is showing an even stronger ridge as of now. This may keep 99L far enough and south and west of our area.

BUT, this is still a fluid situation. Things could still change with the models being that we are still 5-6 days of this system possibly impacting Florida.

My best advice is to continue to watch the model runs and wait until at least the next 48 hours at least before assessing whether or not Northeast Florida will see direct. major effects from 99L. Still uncertainty a out what will occur. Also, much will depend how intense 99L will get once when it gets in the Bahamas. It is definitely a possibility we may see indirect effects such as high surf, and rip currents along our NE Fla coast.

[Bocadude85]

So HWRF is running...does it go back to development or does it tank like the 12z...thoughts?

I'm going to say it will atleast show a tropical storm in the Bahamas.. Even the 18Z GFS managed to close a low off at 126 hours

[Hurrilurker]

Satellite presentation is really starting to look like something. Hard to believe this doesn't develop soon.

[2flyOrNot2fly]

In your expert opinion(s), would you cancel a trip to San Juan, Puerto Rico if you were scheduled to arrive this Thursday morning? I know some models are predicting no threat to PR, but more concerning, leaving Sunday by way of Miami. Thoughts?

[HurriGuy]

Somebody convince me this is not going to roll right over Hispaniola. If we had no model guidance and just looking at satellite, thats surely what I think would happen.

[SouthFLTropics]

No love from the HWRF at all...how's it go from a Cat 3 two runs ago to this now. I'm confused.

[BreinLa]

Prepare for the LA and maybe TX posters to get a little more interested. Just a hunch.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

You bet we are interested watching closely La doesn't need any more rain right now

[CrazyC83]

No love from the HWRF at all...how's it go from a Cat 3 two runs ago to this now. I'm confused.

We're still quite a few days away.

[KatDaddy]

We do not want any part of the fun and games and especially our friends in LA.

[idaknowman]

Something else for South Florida to consider is the Zika virus and the probability of newly hidden areas with standing water.

[ObsessedMiami]

Something else for South Florida to consider is the Zika virus and the probability of newly hidden areas with standing water.

My wife just mentioned this to me. what a nightmare

[La Sirena]

Something else for South Florida to consider is the Zika virus and the probability of newly hidden areas with standing water.

My wife just mentioned this to me. what a nightmare

Just means mosquito control will have more on their plate, I'm sure!

[USTropics]

The last few visible images show a mid level circulation becoming better defined:



Per recent recon, CIMSS/GFS products (images below), the LLC is still elongated but becoming better defined. The past three nights, 99L has started building convection around 10PM ET. We'll see if the same occurs tonight (this is the best it's looked going into diurnal maximum as well). That could be the last step, in what has been a four day process, that finally closes off a surface circulation.

[wxmann_91]

50-70 probs now in the TWO.

1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser
Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the
Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become
more conducive later this week while the system moves near the
southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Nimbus]

Aric posted a radar link earlier, the echoes are still not coming from the surface due to the Earth's curvature. Later As the system crosses near/north of Guadalupe we might be able to spot a closed circulation at the surface.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

There is a good satellite option here too.

[USTropics]

NHC's updated 5-day TWO: