ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

About to do a pass. plenty of TS winds already.

[USTropics]

40-45 knot flight level winds with a gradual change in wind direction:

[cycloneye]

Found center!

URNT15 KNHC 021445
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 29 20160802
143500 1613N 08012W 9844 00211 0083 +242 +187 032031 032 030 000 00
143530 1611N 08011W 9843 00208 0080 +244 +188 025030 030 029 000 00
143600 1610N 08009W 9844 00205 0074 +243 +190 018028 030 030 001 00
143630 1609N 08008W 9650 00367 0064 +228 +191 016026 028 030 000 03
143700 1607N 08008W 9408 00591 0067 +215 +188 001023 025 026 000 03
143730 1606N 08007W 9175 00811 0067 +203 +184 353021 024 /// /// 03
143800 1605N 08009W 8864 01113 0064 +204 +176 000018 021 /// /// 03
143830 1606N 08010W 8619 01362 0061 +212 +170 000016 017 /// /// 03
143900 1607N 08009W 8456 01538 0065 +210 +168 000014 015 /// /// 03
143930 1607N 08008W 8431 01564 0065 +212 +168 346010 012 025 001 00
144000 1607N 08006W 8430 01560 0054 +221 +168 330010 011 023 000 00
144030 1607N 08004W 8429 01559 0046 +225 +169 307010 012 021 000 03
144100 1608N 08003W 8434 01549 0038 +234 +170 302005 010 022 000 00
144130 1609N 08001W 8426 01553 0026 +245 +172 297005 007 022 000 00
144200 1610N 08000W 8431 01546 0022 +249 +175 285001 004 016 000 00
144230 1611N 07959W 8435 01540 0025 +240 +178 133009 013 028 000 00
144300 1612N 07958W 8436 01538 0039 +215 +181 139022 025 035 002 00
144330 1613N 07957W 8425 01553 0055 +192 +182 136027 029 042 000 03
144400 1613N 07955W 8429 01551 //// +178 //// 143029 032 039 001 01
144430 1613N 07955W 8429 01551 //// +173 //// 156031 033 040 000 01
$$

[cycloneye]

[USTropics]

HH found a center, this should meet all the criteria for an upgrade now (enough evidence to go right to TS Earl imo):

[cycloneye]

1002 mbs lowest pressure.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.

[tropicwatch]

Can we say upgrade

[wflamholtz]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 4338143232

NHC is going to start issuing advisories on TS Earl before noon EDT - NHC twitter page

[weathaguyry]

It's about time!!!

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of data?

[Kazmit]

HH found a center, this should meet all the criteria for an upgrade now (enough evidence to go right to TS Earl imo):

Awesome... it's finally Earl! (or about to be in the next NHC update). It was probably already Earl before recon, but this can be figured out in the post-analysis

[Dave C]

Hurricane center will upgrade to tropical storm by noontime! Via special update

[galaxy401]

Probably been a TS for some time now. Will this storm forecast to slow down soon?

[TheStormExpert]

Better late then never!

Likely been a TS for about 24hrs. or so, too bad recon couldn't make it last night.

[lrak]

Hope this stays weak with a big wind field. The wave model I use shows lots of swells in the W. GOM for early next week. "Cough Cough" "I feel sick boss, I have to go home an wax the boards I mean get into bed "

Will all that moisture north of Earl be sucked into the storm? It would be huge it that occurred

[Kazmit]

97L now TS Earl. Still one model showing a Texas landfall

[tatertawt24]

That was one of the more agonizing waits I've had tracking storms.

[AutoPenalti]

It's 15 mins for before noon.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed
circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this
basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This
is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this
morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection
is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not
well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of
the global models show that the upper-level environment should
become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for
some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane
strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.

Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within
very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic
subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern
United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone
on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the
next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move
over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone
should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering
currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila