ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I wouldn't count on a Betsy-like (1965) track that loops back into the Gulf. While not 100% impossible, it seems rather unlikely. I do think that Matthew may be a hurricane in 24 hours (or so) and a major hurricane before it nears Jamaica in 5 days, possibly a Cat 4. I'm thinking Carolinas northward may eventually be impacted, though I wouldn't rule out Florida.

[stormlover2013]

WXman is sticking to his guns, going with the GFS....I like it

[centuryv58]

WXman is sticking to his guns, going with the GFS....I like it

With a slight qualification now.

[Gustywind]

probably will have hurricane force gusts on Martinique and St. Lucia during the next 3 to 6 hours

Hope no! That's enough for our islands. We do not want any damages witht this TS.

[Ken711]

I wouldn't count on a Betsy-like (1965) track that loops back into the Gulf. While not 100% impossible, it seems rather unlikely. I do think that Matthew may be a hurricane in 24 hours (or so) and a major hurricane before it nears Jamaica in 5 days, possibly a Cat 4. I'm thinking Carolinas northward may eventually be impacted, though I wouldn't rule out Florida.

Hope it stays out to sea, but I agree Carolinas/Virginia impact.

[tolakram]

I was out since 11 and am shocked they found a center pretty far west of the first pass. It looks to be slowly improving.

visible loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-60&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-60&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[wxman57]

WXman is sticking to his guns, going with the GFS....I like it

No, I'm not going with the GFS. My 7-day track point is just north of eastern Cuba, not way north of the Bahamas like the GFS. Much closer to the ECMWF than the GFS. EC ensembles have trended east over the past 3 model cycles, though there are still a number of members that take it into the Gulf. The EC ensemble mean has shifted from Key West to Miami to east of Florida (not by a lot).

[jlauderdal]

good to see a position be taken one or another


BigJoeBastardi2 mins
Euro beat GFS on sw tracks of Isadore in 02 and Joaquin last year as GFS had both moving along. Think it will win day 3-6 . slower more sw

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781195760440340481

[RL3AO]

^^^

Water vapor loop is impressive. This may be a hurricane by tomorrow. Wxman may be on to something.

[wxman57]

12Z EC position for 21Z Saturday is about 70 miles ENE of the 00Z run. Slower and farther northward. That position is about 100 miles SSW of the GFS position for 21Z Saturday.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781183450745298945

[otowntiger]

12Z EC position for 21Z Saturday is about 70 miles ENE of the 00Z run. Slower and farther northward. That position is about 100 miles SSW of the GFS position for 21Z Saturday.

That should help you feel better about your Orlando vacation next week. Seems like both have it missing FL by a good amount and with the EC still trending that way it seems to look better and better, at least for Florida.

[rickybobby]

I'm ready for a hurricane to hit central Florida. Love taking pics of the ocean.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781201909294194688

[SouthFLTropics]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781201909294194688

Voice of reason...Let's not get hung up on swings in 7 day models.

[galaxy401]

Looks like SFL dodged yet another bullet, for now.

Stop saying that until we are absolute certain with Matthew. Anything can happen in the future.

[Weatherboy1]

Well the trend of this afternoon's models is certainly more favorable for us here in South Florida, though we're still talking several days out so not going to break out the party hats yet. Hopefully Matthew does in fact get yanked out of the Caribbean and thrown out into the Atlantic, though obviously this has the potential to be a serious storm for Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas/Haiti at the very least

[otowntiger]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781201909294194688

While I'm certainly no expert, my untrained take on this image seems to scream for a solid north to NNE movement following that very clear weakness between the apparent/potential ridge over FL and the Bermuda high to it's east. Why wouldn't it follow that 'blue river' to its north?

[AdamFirst]

Looks like SFL dodged yet another bullet, for now.

You've been here a year already and are making assumptions like that...come on, now