ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8961 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:05 pm

Soonercane wrote:Probably will be 105-110 at next update.



Highly doubtful. Plenty of time to strengthen.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8962 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:06 pm

Soonercane wrote:Probably will be 105-110 at next update.


I'm sorry what? Are you saying this storm is going to decrease in strength by TWO categories in a matter of hours as it appears to be intensifying and improving in satellite presentation?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8963 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:07 pm

Soonercane wrote:Probably will be 105-110 at next update.

What is your thinking on this? There is a dropsonde in the NW quad showing 132mph surface. Could be higher on next pass in NE quad
Last edited by stephen23 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8964 Postby chris46n » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:07 pm

The reason for the weaking is because the gulf stream water temperature being too high. :P
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8965 Postby bqknight » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:08 pm

Does anyone think the larger "eye" will eventually collapse and take over the smaller one?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8966 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:08 pm

bqknight wrote:Does anyone think the larger "eye" will eventually collapse and take over the smaller one?


Thats the process.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8967 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:09 pm

Just a bit of shear short-term, that is all. That's why it's not a Cat 5
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8968 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:09 pm

Maybe it's just the looping of the inner eye, but on radar the southwestern outer eye wall is growing big time and looks like it will close off the open southern inner eye wall (maybe completing the ERC?).

Again, just a thought. Not a professional.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8969 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:09 pm

Local News reporting winds picking up quickly Juno Beach gusts over 40mph...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8970 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:09 pm

Outer eyewall is moving west now - outer eyewall looks to be getting ripe for some convective energizing over the gulf stream.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8971 Postby ronyan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:10 pm

Anyone have a link to obs in Freeport, I see one station but it has 0.0 mph so doubt that's correct.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8972 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:10 pm

Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8973 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:11 pm

ronyan wrote:Anyone have a link to obs in Freeport, I see one station but it has 0.0 mph so doubt that's correct.


the next hour should have the inner eyewall coming ashore there
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8974 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:11 pm

The deadliest effects will be from the storm surge, it wouldn't matter if Matthew were to miss by a few miles to the east. Too many people are focused on the center or just the eyewall when its effects will be far more reaching than strong winds.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8975 Postby Soonercane » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:12 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Soonercane wrote:Probably will be 105-110 at next update.


I'm sorry what? Are you saying this storm is going to decrease in strength by TWO categories in a matter of hours as it appears to be intensifying and improving in satellite presentation?


How could it strengthen undergoing EWRC (Legitimate question, not claiming you are incorrect)? Wouldn't the outer eyewall contract a bit, but maximum winds decrease to a little more than what is currently observed in the outer eyewall (about 90 knots)?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8976 Postby adam0983 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:12 pm

What time frame should palm beach county get the most wind.?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8977 Postby Portastorm » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:12 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.


Thank you very much!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8978 Postby jasons2k » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:14 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.


Thank you! Yes, we worked very hard to get on new servers and complete board upgrades to handle the traffic. Hopefully the performance issues of years past are now long behind us.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8979 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:15 pm

HRRR Landfall at West Palm Beach

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#8980 Postby davidiowx » Thu Oct 06, 2016 4:15 pm

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1
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