ATL: HERMINE - Models

[TheStormExpert]

I think the important thing here is the trend toward stronger ridging along the east coast. It's way too early to say where a system would hit or exactly how strong it will possibly be. But if another 2-3 global model cycles continue to show EC ridging then someone will likely have to deal with "Gaston" down the road in FL or the SE US

Will likely be Hermine since 90L will organize and strengthen quickly.

[Kingarabian]

So I guess a good compromise between the GFS showing a Cat.5 to the Euro showing an open wave is a moderate TS potentially affecting land.

[LarryWx]

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_dat ... 35.n18.jpg

This satellite based image shows a lot of 88-89ish degree SSTs in the Bahamas and that was at 7:35 AM EDT. They easily could have warmed 1-2 degrees this afternoon due to solar heating (as I believe is the norm). These are about as warm as they get there and are about as warm as any SST's in the entire basin currently save possibly some parts of the GOM. IF a TC forms or gets in there moving rather slowly (but not stalled) and then turns left underneath a blocking ridge, look out.

[chaser1]

Huge timing difference between 12z GFS/Euro... GFS has 99L near N Bahamas @234 hours and Euro @168... 2.5 day difference...

I could be wrong here but I"m thinking that the descrepency with the timing between the two models might have something to do with the track each model forecasts in getting 99L over and past 75W. Its possible that the GFS might have been (or still?) dragging a good chunk of the vorticity right over P.R. and Hispanola thus delaying the process of consolidation where the GFS finally develops the system in or near the W. Bahamas. Where'as the EURO looks to shoot a developing low through the Mona passage, this less scenic route over the mountains of D.R. and Haiti is probably why the EURO has the time frame sooner than the GFS. Who knows which (if either) plays out but the timing might play a big role in terms of when such a ridge will be building off the SE CONUS and whether any developing storm might be blocked and then pushed northward. I personally think that the EURO might be slightly fast (which may be a bad thing for Florida). The abrupt turn to the west that the EURO implies seems to indicate a somewhat immediate building or eastward expanding mid level anticyclone, but should this projected shift in the steering occur as forecast and the EURO be slightly quick with moving a storm WNW towards the Bahamas, than I"m thinking an approaching storm from the ESE might likely begin to start feeling this building ridge and begin to bend a bit more westerly toward South or Central Fla. (rather than N. Fla). This far out though, thats a bit of splitting hairs since an awful lot can change between now and then (even though I happen to still think its Florida bound).

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting 12 UKMET run, does anyone know the strength at day 7?

[p1nheadlarry]

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/flcur/sst/noaa/2016/img/160821.234.1135.n18.jpg

This satellite based image shows a lot of 88-89ish degree SSTs in the Bahamas and that was at 7:35 AM EDT. They easily could have warmed 1-2 degrees this afternoon due to solar heating (as I believe is the norm). These are about as warm as they get there and are about as warm as any SST's in the entire basin currently save possibly some parts of the GOM. IF a TC forms or gets in there moving rather slowly (but not stalled) and then turns left underneath a blocking ridge, look out.

The Rutgers site is a good one. There are surface waters warm enough to support a borderline major as far north as Cape Hatteras, a storm moving with a decent pace (15-20 mph) would benefit from these as well. But the Bahamas are scalding, and if the Euro pans out, 99L could definitely recover in the gulf.

[chaser1]

I'm pretty sure that in the prior run of the GFS ensembles, they continued to remain fairly clustered however for the first time in a few runs, they appeared to recurve 99L just prior to a Florida landfall then taking the storm northward remaining off the coast. Prior runs had moved a system directly into Florida and then into the Gulf. My thought is that we might see the ensembles begin to bend back to the west again; if not on this upcomming run, than the following.

[gatorcane]

Scary UKMET with the west bend for Floridians along the east coast especially as the model shows a rapidly intensifying system

[jason1912]

Does anybody have a link to the UKMET? Thanks.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anybody have a link to the UKMET? Thanks.

Here you go.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[jason1912]

Does anybody have a link to the UKMET? Thanks.

Here you go.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Thanks.

[chaser1]

Scary UKMET with the west bend for Floridians along the east coast.

Of course its prudent to continue to say that its too early to know what will be, but "not for nothin" I'm personally curious how many fishing piers lie between jlaudersal and you to the south, and Northjaxpro up the coast?

[TheStormExpert]

Does anybody have a link to the UKMET? Thanks.

Here you go.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Thanks.

You're welcome!

[OuterBanker]

Kicks and giggles. Latest CMC has a 977 mb landfall in Wilmington in 228 (NC that is). If it's the Canadaian is a sure thing it won't happen.

[SFLcane]

Scary UKMET with the west bend for Floridians along the east coast especially as the model shows a rapidly intensifying system

Woah!

[chaser1]

Does anybody have a link to the UKMET? Thanks.

Here you go.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

So, it looks like the UK confirmed it... we have a "Doublecane"!

[chaser1]

Kicks and giggles. Latest CMC has a 977 mb landfall in Wilmington in 228 (NC that is). If it's the Canadaian is a sure thing it won't happen.

Yeah, but if the Canadian suddenly falls directly in line with the GFS, EURO, and the UK......., Florida's "off the hook" and you best start buying a lot more bottled water

[stormlover2013]

It won't load up for me

[p1nheadlarry]

Scary UKMET with the west bend for Floridians along the east coast especially as the model shows a rapidly intensifying system

But a great few days of surf wax sales for the south-facing beaches of NC

Unless that thing wants to pay us a visit down the road, but the trends as of now (though they can and if the last few days tells me anything, they will) of a stronger blocking high is making the latest ECMWF run look better (for now).

[chaser1]

It won't load up for me

Go to the top middle of the page and look for a small green rectangle labled 'UK". Then, look to the right of it and you'll see a series of small white buttons. Click on the "D7 (day 7)