ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

I decided to check my forecast out and see pretty much the same as you do. I'm in Broward County and for 10/9 it says Day: 47 mph winds - Gusts to 100 mph and Evening 41 mph winds - Gusts to 84 mph.

I'm afraid now to check mine in West Palm Beach. These can't be posted as real forecasts with so much doubt, can they??

they are in the forecast business and they made a forecast..cant fault them for that

[CaneCurious]

Bernie Rayno has a very complex solution

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... s/vbraynob

That explains our long range forecast from Accuweather.

Well this just burst my bubble that the gulf coast was pretty safe from Matthew.

[srva80]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

WTH??

looks like we're going to get hit on the east coast as well

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/boynton-beach-fl/33436/daily-weather-forecast/14526_pc?day=12

[jlauderdal]

hour to go and we see how nhc deals with the euro..remember the real wildcard is beyond 5 days

[SouthernBreeze]

Accuweather showing 50-55mph gusts Oct 11 & 12 here - I'm assuming that's just from front interaction, not Mathew

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

[robbielyn]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

WTH??

looks like we're going to get hit on the east coast as well

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/boynton-beach-fl/33436/daily-weather-forecast/14526_pc?day=12

my brooksville, fl 40miles nw of tampa, west central florida coast oct 10th nnw winds 23 gusting to 76 a and oct 11th wnw at 29 gusting to 64

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/781221685592780800

[fci]

This is the first I've heard of a Betsy track. That's not good.

Betsy is almost a once in a lifetime track.
Went all the way up to bring a threat to NC, east of Daytona before it looped, headed South and turned west across Key Largo.
It also came from the southeast, north of Puerto Rico.
If you are referring to taking a hard right turn maybe it's more like Hurricane Jeanne.

Didn't Jeanne take a hard left turn?

Yes, that is correct! Oops....

[sma10]

I decided to check my forecast out and see pretty much the same as you do. I'm in Broward County and for 10/9 it says Day: 47 mph winds - Gusts to 100 mph and Evening 41 mph winds - Gusts to 84 mph.

I'm afraid now to check mine in West Palm Beach. These can't be posted as real forecasts with so much doubt, can they??

they are in the forecast business and they made a forecast..cant fault them for that

I think I'm going to bet the "under" on this forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like SFL dodged yet another bullet, for now.

You've been here a year already and are making assumptions like that...come on, now

I'm really basing this off the Euro and GFS. Hence "For now"

[fci]

I know this much. My long range forecast from Accuweather for my area is uh, "interesting" to say the least...

WTH??

looks like we're going to get hit on the east coast as well

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/boynton-beach-fl/33436/daily-weather-forecast/14526_pc?day=12

my brooksville, fl 40miles nw of tampa, west central florida coast oct 10th nnw winds 23 gusting to 76 a and oct 11th wnw at 29 gusting to 64

Seems like a computer model projects out the maps and plots wind speeds automatically. I'm certain that a human did not make those forecasts for many days from now.
Look, I'm far from a JB fan (got in trouble for being critical of him in the past), I like Bernie; but the bottom line is to cut Accuweather some slack for computer generated long term local forcasts. In my opinion of course

[TheDreamTraveler]

Really Accuweather is being very irresponsible. Two words,, Bastardi . Acccuracy

Seems like a computer model projects out the maps and plots wind speeds automatically. I'm certain that a human did not make those forecasts for many days from now.
Look, I'm far from a JB fan (got in trouble for being critical of him in the past), I like Bernie; but the bottom line is to cut Accuweather some slack for computer generated long term local forcasts. In my opinion of course

Joe hasn't been at Accuweather for over 5 years now. Not sure who exactly is their long range forecaster now.

[ronyan]

Seems like a computer model projects out the maps and plots wind speeds automatically. I'm certain that a human did not make those forecasts for many days from now.
Look, I'm far from a JB fan (got in trouble for being critical of him in the past), I like Bernie; but the bottom line is to cut Accuweather some slack for computer generated long term local forcasts. In my opinion of course

Yes, I'm pretty sure most weather sites use algorithms to generate those long range forecasts, not human input. You would think that there would be some controls to prevent extreme forecasts from showing up.

[jlauderdal]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781201909294194688

While I'm certainly no expert, my untrained take on this image seems to scream for a solid north to NNE movement following that very clear weakness between the apparent/potential ridge over FL and the Bermuda high to it's east. Why wouldn't it follow that 'blue river' to its north?

it would if that modeling is correct but that is in question

[FireRat]

IMO, Accuweather's super long range (8+ days) is subject to change drastically and is just for "entertainment" purposes. At best, the forecast simply hints at local weather patterns that may exist in the future days, such as a tropical cyclone. It's just like watching their long range calling for cold fronts in south FL in winter, only for the forecast temps to wildly change. Do not take the 10/9 forecast too seriously!

Florida won't really know if they're in the threat until this weekend at the earliest!

[johngaltfla]

IMO, Accuweather's super long range (8+ days) is subject to change drastically and is just for "entertainment" purposes. At best, the forecast simply hints at local weather patterns that may exist in the future days, such as a tropical cyclone. It's just like watching their long range calling for cold fronts in south FL in winter, only for the forecast temps to wildly change. Do not take the 10/9 forecast too seriously!

Florida won't really know if they're in the threat until this weekend at the earliest!

If the forward speed slows down dramatically as projected, we may not know until next Tues-Wed.

[JaxGator]

Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro · 1h1 hour ago

Hi-res MODIS satellite image of #Matthew, a classic-looking potent Caribbean tropical storm

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtdprSKWAAAatdS.jpg

[johngaltfla]

Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro · 1h1 hour ago

Hi-res MODIS satellite image of #Matthew, a classic-looking potent Caribbean tropical storm

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtdprSKWAAAatdS.jpg

Beautiful outflow. He's in position to intensify rapidly...good looking storm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The stronger Matthew gets early on the more likely the system is to turn north quicker correct?