ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ZX12R]

My opinion at this point, is that Matthew is just dithering. Not gaining or losing. But there is quite a bit more time over warm water, so Matthew's story is yet to be written. Could be strengthening or weakening. We'll see.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm very confused by this ERC. Instead if the inner eyewall collapsing, it seems to be merging with the outer eyewall which is quickly closing in while the pressure remains steady or slightly drops.

They are all different and almost all of them are confusing and sloppy. Very few are textbook. I think a lot of people here have been unduly influenced to think they're all textbook. So here's a great chance to watch along with the pros and learn some of the odd ways that ERCs develop and complete or wash out.

I have noticed the outer eyewall has contracted 10 miles (to 50) since the previous vortex msg. It will probably contract a bit more before the smaller one gives it up

[ozonepete]

looks like it went stationary over Freeport

lets hope not..

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

[MGC]

Recon reported a 8 mile wide eye with central pressure of 939mb and an outer eye of 50 miles.....MGC

[AutoPenalti]

looks like it went stationary over Freeport

lets hope not..

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

But to where?

[ZX12R]

look a million times better now....

"Better" meaning, more destructive or less? Hard to tell with this subject.

better means more developed, healthy, intense, photogenic

I hope you are wrong.

[Hammy]

Would a slowing down or stall make it more or less likely to stay offshore?

[Exalt]

lets hope not..

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

But to where?

Let's just hope that it isn't west.

[ScottNAtlanta]

For anyone who doesn't get the eye but the left side of the inner core, especially farther up the coast based on some of the models, you could see getting a piece of the north, mostly west and south eyewall. That can and will be a serious 4-6 hours for some. I was in Austin for Gustav, but I think Baton Rouge, as far inland as it is, got the north eyewall and got pretty smashed for a Cat 1. This is stronger.

Also, everyone within the storms path should be on guard for tornadoes as well that can be spawned in some of these bands

[Evenstar]

Don't forget we do have a chatroom for talk, check ins, and the like. The mods there are nicer and better looking than we are ... well, I can only speak for myself.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

Come, come now. I find that very hard to believe.

[Alyono]

Haiti death toll now 264

This may end up as a Bangladesh type number

[Soonercane]

Would a slowing down or stall make it more or less likely to stay offshore?

I believe more likely, as that would give the ridge more time to retreat and it would feel the weakness earlier and head north

[SapphireSea]

Haiti death toll now 264

This may end up as a Bangladesh type number

That sounds very horrible. My deepest condolences to those affected. When I heard 40 inches+ of rain fell I knew it was going to be bad.

[ozonepete]

lets hope not..

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

But to where?

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

[TheStormExpert]

What are the Sustained Winds in that outer Eye-Wall?

[GeneratorPower]

Inching due north on the last 10 minutes of radar.

[ozonepete]

Would a slowing down or stall make it more or less likely to stay offshore?

More likely an indication it's going to shift northward and stay further offshore so keep your fingers crossed.

[Weatherboy1]

Matthew tracked more north than west most of the day ... But turning a bit more westerly in the last hour or two. Outer eyewall band getting awfully close now here in Jupiter. Will have to see if this new trend continues

[SunnyThoughts]

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

But to where?

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

I agree, the sooner the better for Florida, but what about points north of there? Won't it give the storm more time over the warm waters to strengthen even more? Or do you think that could happen?

[Alyono]

Haiti death toll now 264

This may end up as a Bangladesh type number

That sounds very horrible. My deepest condolences to those affected. When I heard 40 inches+ of rain fell I knew it was going to be bad.

already outdated. 283