ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Haiti death toll now 264

This may end up as a Bangladesh type number

Yeah I'm pretty sure Matthew will already be retired.

[Raebie]

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

But to where?

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

And what will that mean for SC/NC?

[SapphireSea]

Though stationary could mean it's changing course - the tug of two different steering flows or the collapse of the main one.

But to where?

There is only one course change coming, from northwest to north. It will come sooner or later. The current nw course cannot change to west-northwest or west because the steering winds are not oriented that way. So the next, inevitable, course change will be more northerly which will take it further offshore and that will be so great for Florida's east coast - the sooner the better.

I do not have access to latest soundings on the continent (I know they are useless compared to over seas analysis. But, I assume heights have really fallen.

[tolakram]

Movement looks steady n/nw via IR. I think the two eyewalls make it seem to be moving in a direction it's not.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-79&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow

[Blinhart]

Don't think it will be turning due North right now, maybe NNW, but I still think it will be going either West, WNW, or NW for the next 12 hours.

[ncweatherwizard]

What are the Sustained Winds in that outer Eye-Wall?

Based on radar and earlier aircraft recon, roughly 65kts. Also depends where in the eye wall you're located.

[Frank P]

still looks NW to me.. but really slowed down the past hour or so...

[Blinhart]

Also if you look at the models it isn't a good thing if it starts turning North right now, means it will start its loop sooner and hit South Florida a lot sooner than in 5 days on the return track.

[Kazmit]

Notice tiny Nicole peaking out there.

[Soonercane]

Also if you look at the models it isn't a good thing if it starts turning North right now, means it will start its loop sooner and hit South Florida a lot sooner than in 5 days on the return track.

You really want that SFLA hit don't you?

[Hammy]

For what it's worth the earlier NAM showed north-moving landfall near Freeport around 00z followed by another short-term westward wobble.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784131516855099392

[Blinhart]

Also if you look at the models it isn't a good thing if it starts turning North right now, means it will start its loop sooner and hit South Florida a lot sooner than in 5 days on the return track.

You really want that SFLA hit don't you?

That is what the models are showing to happen at the end of the loop.

[GeneratorPower]

Approximately 30 minutes of movement. About 3-4 miles of movement shown. The blue ring was placed perfectly inside the eye 30 minutes ago. See how it moved?

[meriland23]

I had talked to someone today who gave me flack about how serious I take the storm, and how people should take it seriously. He literally told me, verbatim "you're being ridiculous, it only killed 30 people in Haiti, no big deal, grow up". Seriously, how can someone say that? Be it 30 or 3,000 people, it's still lives lost.. and the sad thing is that the recent numbers (280+) is not including how many we are about to lose . This isn't some media hype.. this is a real, deadly, for real-please-take-this-seriously-or-you-will-die type of storm...

[Stangfriik]

Already heard a transformer pop and streetlights went out but turned back on here in new smyrna.

[Blinhart]

Also people need to realize a lot of the Peninsula is flat, with swamp land and other water bodies, so there will not be a lot of disruption of this system if he keeps most if not all of his body off land.

[Blinhart]

Approximately 30 minutes of movement. About 3-4 miles of movement shown. The blue ring was placed perfectly inside the eye 30 minutes ago. See how it moved?

If you follow the inner eye yeah it is moving North, but you need to be following the outer eyewall for true movement.

[abajan]

Haiti death toll now 264

This may end up as a Bangladesh type number

That sounds very horrible. My deepest condolences to those affected. When I heard 40 inches+ of rain fell I knew it was going to be bad.

I know that 40 inches was stated as a possibility in several consecutive advisories by the NHC, but did that amount actually fall? Hopefully not.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The satellite imagery shows that Mathew has built a really nice solid CDO around and over the eye now and this usually indicates strengthening. That's bad of course. Really bad. But on the good side, I'm seeing more and more trends in the track to be a little more east of the forecast points. You can see it on both satellite and radar. It's enough that I'm becoming pretty sure that the complete eye will never make landfall on the Florida coast - will come pretty close at times but not make landfall where the coast gets a calm wind. That would be much better in terms of wind damage of course. Let's hope.

Agree the shortwave sat-pic indicate a robust system. Land fall well that cant be ruled out @ this point.

Lol I know my way around here really well: that's why I said "becoming pretty sure". If you stick your neck out any further here you get it chopped off immediately.

I was not implying you would wrong,and certainly not saying you don't know your way around here. My thinking is 250-850 steering flow indicates to me
the cane will slingshot a full landfall.