ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Is there any way for me to watch live streaming coverage online without a cable provider? It requires one and I only have antennae. None of the channels on my TV cover the storm.

I am up in Michigan, but lived in Palm Coast and Daytona Beach for many years. I am watching WFTV and WESH out of Orlando. Just go right to there website and you can see the link to watch live streaming.

I just heard that Orlando has a 10PM curfew starting tonight, lifting at 7AM Saturday. If they catch you out, you'll get taken to 33RD Street. (jail)

a few hours at disney would be a tougher punishment

[Hammy]

Here's one of the outer eye. The eye was perfectly fit with the blue circle, along the edge of the yellow banding.

So the actual center is on the southern edge of the inner eye wall rather than within?

[ozonepete]

Andrew strengthened while part of its circulation was over Florida, did it not? Charley strengthened up through landfall too...

They were very small storms. Much smaller than Matthew. That made all of the difference.

[GeneratorPower]

Here's one of the outer eye. The eye was perfectly fit with the blue circle, along the edge of the yellow banding.

So the actual center is on the southern edge of the inner eye wall rather than within?

No. The blue dot and blue circle are just measurement tools in RadarScope. I'm only showing that the eyewall(s) are moving mostly north. Not west any longer. But it is probably stair-stepping north, west, north, west.

[Ken711]

Seems GFS/Euro overestimated the ridge strength...

Is that what GFS 18z shows it turning almost over the OBX?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks as if the inner eyewall is rotating within the outer one.

[tolakram]

Here is the NHC track line, which they have off by default. Keep this in mind when looking at where the storm is vs where it is supposed to go.

[Frank P]

Looks to me the inner eye is now moving NNW and no longer stalling via the radar loops, lets see if it wobbles back to the west somewhat in the next 30 minutes or so... if not, could have major impacts down the road...... hoping for FL..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here's one of the outer eye. The eye was perfectly fit with the blue circle, along the edge of the yellow banding.

So the actual center is on the southern edge of the inner eye wall rather than within?

I think the inner wall is about to give it up.

[psyclone]

Andrew strengthened while part of its circulation was over Florida, did it not? Charley strengthened up through landfall too...

They were very small storms. Much smaller than Matthew. That made all of the difference.

They both also had a faster rate of forward motion. the center was quickly onshore before the deleterious effects of land could manifest. That's very important. Beyond that...those events are exceptions to the rule. That's precisely why people can reference them so quickly...they're memorable aberrations.

[Raebie]

Not 100%, but dang near close.

So you didn't stay up for the epic GFS run the other night?

Lol. That was the BEST! your 'thank god this only goes out 384 hours' comment put me over the edge.

[ZX12R]

At the moment, Matthew's core seems to be weakening. Anyone disagree with that?

[tolakram]

Latest saved radar loop

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784131516855099392

Fortunately this has been dead wrong...
Why does Ryan Maue keep tweeting this?? He is a big time weather guy??

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner at 6:40:

Catastrophic and life threatening hurricane event for eastern FL, SE GA, and SC is imminent

Actions to protect life should be completed in eastern FL and rushed to completion in GA and SC. Abandon storm preparations and evacuate mobile homes and coastal storm zones immediately…failure to comply with evacuation orders will result in near certain death.

12.3 million residents are in the path of Matthew’s hurricane force winds.

Discussion:
USAF mission in Matthew finds the pressure has fallen to 938mb and winds remain near 140mph. The eye of hurricane Matthew is currently located 100 miles ESE of West Palm Beach, FL moving NW at 14mph. Grand Bahama Island is currently sustained at 75mph gusting to 98mph. TS force winds are arriving onto the FL east coast with Lake Worth FL gusting to 55mph. Radar images show the inner core of Matthew is contracting as the eyewall replacement cycle continues, but the hurricane force wind field has expanded to nearly 60 miles.

Track:
There has been no significant change in the track of Matthew and a catastrophic hurricane event is likely for the entire eastern FL coast, SE GA and coastal SC over the next 24-48 hours. Since 1851 no hurricane of this magnitude has made landfall on this portion of the FL east coast and the last category 4 hurricane to hit Georgia was in 1898. This will be a rare historic hurricane event for eastern FL and the GA coast. It should be noted that intense hurricanes such as Matthew do not move in straight lines, but instead wobble on a general heading…so if looking at radar data it may seem that the hurricane is turning in one direction or another…but usually these are short term wobbles.

Intensity:
The pressure has fallen slightly since this morning, but flight level and surface winds remain nearly the same and Matthew is expected to reach the FL east coast as a 140mph category 4 hurricane…capable of extreme damage. There will likely be little change in the intensity of the hurricane until land interaction with FL begins to weaken and disrupt the central circulation.

At this point how quickly and when the hurricane weakens is not very important…what is important is that Matthew will bring devastating conditions to nearly the entire east FL coast north of West Palm Beach and into the GA coast.

Impacts:

Matthew will result in historic hurricane impacts to the SE US coast!

Some locations along the coast will be rendered uninhabitable for weeks or longer requiring a massive post storm response. Some of the barrier islands will be overtopped, breached and scoured to the point of total structural collapse with remains of structures washed away.

Florida Light and Power is estimating 2.5 million residents will lose power…some for weeks.

Wind:
Devastating winds of Matthew with sustained speeds of 120-140mph with gust to 150mph will pound the entire FL east coast from N of West Palm Beach to south of Jacksonville. Winds of 80-100 mph will spread inland tens of miles and winds of hurricane force will be possible into central FL and TS force across the entire peninsula.

Structures along the coast…especially high rise buildings will suffer massive wind damage from these wind speeds. The upper floors of high rise condos and hotels on the coast will likely see wind speeds of near category 5 intensity…some well built structures will be torn apart while others will be collapsed. There are many mobile home areas in this part of FL and all will be completely destroyed. Wind driven debris will be lethal and cause extensive property damage.

Storm Surge:

Life threatening storm surge is likely along the east FL coast to GA to SC

Sea water inundation of 7-12 feet above the ground is likely along the FL barrier islands north of West Palm Beach and into the St John’s River. This is a worst case storm surge event for metro Jacksonville FL and the GA coast. Portions of St Simon Island and Tybee Is in GA will be completely inundated by sea water.

Barrier islands will be breached and overtopped and some will suffer severe cuts where land will no longer exist post storm. Coastal structures will be undermined and collapse and wave action of 10-20 feet on top of the 7-12 foot rise in water levels will batter coastal structures and defenses. Much of the storm surge and wave energy will be directed into the lower floors of the dense hotels, condos, and homes along the barrier islands resulting in horrendous damage.

In SC much of the coast will be inundated including sections of Downtown Charleston and large sections of the SC low country.

Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts of 5-12 inches will be possible along the coast from SE FL to SW NC and will only compound the flooding near the low lying coastal areas from rainfall and storm surge.

Actions:

Time is up in FL…preparations should be completed and residents in safe shelter.

Evacuations continue in GA and SC and these orders must be heeded and the coastal storm surge zones vacated by early Friday morning as water levels will begin to rise near the coast possibly trapping persons.

[tolakram]

At the moment, Matthew's core seems to be weakening. Anyone disagree with that?

Not sure it matters but I don't know how to answer that. A bigger weaker core could mean a lot more coastal flooding and damage.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/784176577806495744

[tallywx]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784131516855099392

Fortunately this has been dead wrong...
Why does Ryan Maue keep tweeting this?? He is a big time weather guy??

Dead wrong in what sense? Angle of attack is a bit off but as of right now the 3-hour motion (smoothing out all the wobbles) points this at a Melbourne or Cape Canaveral landfall, which is what NHC has been saying all along.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/784181531006894081

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest saved radar loop

That shows the inner eye rotating around the outer one perfectly!
It can also distort which way it "looks" like it is going

[tolakram]

Fortunately this has been dead wrong...
Why does Ryan Maue keep tweeting this?? He is a big time weather guy??

Can you describe how it's wrong?