ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxsouth]

Average motion over past 6 hours is about 325 deg. That heading, if maintained, would bring the center inland near Cape Canaveral. While it is still possible that the center misses land, it is by no means certain, and even a track a few miles offshore will still have huge impacts on east-central and northeast Florida.

The 'It's gonna miss'' crowd needs to chill.

[Bunkertor]

Looks like the inner eye is collapsing on Radar.

What link would be good to watch this ?

[Frank P]

Absolutely baffled by everyone calling Florida safe and Matthew weak..

yeah, all kidding aside good thing I am not a moderator cause I would have deleted or blocked a plethora of silly posts today...

[ronjon]

Western outer eyewall approaching coast near WPB on radar. Weather about to go down hill fast.

[swampgator92]

One of the concerns Bryan Norcross on the weather channel is that the energy from the inner eyewall is being displaced to the outer one. He is saying the outer eyewall could have 100MPH winds. So even though this could be 30 miles off the coast, the coast could still get raked with this outer eyewall and get Cat 1/Cat 2 winds. Of course, if it hugs the coast that also means the outer eyewall will be hitting inland areas with higher winds than expected.

[Frank P]

Western outer eyewall approaching coast near WPB on radar. Weather about to go down hill fast.

Just about to kiss the coast, and still looks to be moving NW...

[ncweatherwizard]

I just want to caution folks that the superficial decrease of winds to 130mph doesn't necessarily imply weakening. The central pressure is still 939mb.

[psyclone]

Average motion over past 6 hours is about 325 deg. That heading, if maintained, would bring the center inland near Cape Canaveral. While it is still possible that the center misses land, it is by no means certain, and even a track a few miles offshore will still have huge impacts on east-central and northeast Florida.

The 'It's gonna miss'' crowd needs to chill.

If the NHC track comes anywhere close to verifying it is going to be horrendous from Brevard county north and a frighteningly close shave south of there to palm beach. Florida is under a threat for a long time...the storm has only passed the latitude of extreme south fl..

[HurrMark]

Listen, while my personal opinion is this will be a non-event for Florida in the end,

It's starting to look like that could be the case. But it's not said and done yet, so, we will see.

Looks that way, but don't let your guard down just yet. Maximum sustained winds are down to 130 mph and it appears that the eye will remain offshore, but one never knows for certain.

There is no evidence that this will avoid land. 1.9 degrees north and 1.6 degrees west will still put the center onshore at Cape Canaveral...or a 320-325 movement like it has been doing.

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

That's the non-enhanced IR. A couple of things stand out to me. The inner core is about to push out a thick band that's eventually going to smack some people upside the head. So I'd think this was ready to pulse up (even though the cloud tops don't show much). But there's that wedge of dry air that is either working in or more probably working out from the eyewall replacement cycle in the eastern part of the storm. I guess if it works it all out before landfall or landscrape, it can be a legit 4. Outside of that sector, it looks pretty good to me.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

while ive noticed people wondering about nicole and if she will affect matthew at all, is it possible that when matthew takes his uturn that he absorbs some of nicole and doesnt weaken as much?

[FLpanhandle91]

The inner eye wall is holding together still and attempting to build back its southern wall on radar. In my opinion there is a good chance Matthew maintains current strength and could potentially sustain two separate wind maxima until landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/784190641286832128

[SunnyThoughts]

[mourninbrew]

To whoever posted that Florida Power and light were expecting over 2.5 million out. That's incorrect, they are prepared for 25% of their customer base. Roughly 1.2 million people. There are several thousand crews down here already, and more coming from all over the country. I've never seen preparations this big for a storm as far as my work. They are trying to take care of your guys as best as possible! Cheers

[delta lady]

Remember, Hurricane Charley made a hard right turn just hours before landfall when it was expected to go further up the coast. It also intensified from a category 2 to a category 4 in a single advisory. How many people were calling an all clear for Port Charlotte at the time?

How quickly people forget this lesson from mother nature.


If you are under a hurricane warning, you need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Don't assume "it should go North of me", one wobble left and your world could dramatically change.

I'll never forget it. I was online at the time, living in SW Orlando and saw that when it was posted. It gave me a couple hours before it the MSM, and I beat everybody to the store. Just forgot to buy that chainsaw.......

[meriland23]

Is Matt starting to come down in strength? The unchanged MB with the 130 mph winds is.throwing me off

[KC7NEC]

Average motion over past 6 hours is about 325 deg. That heading, if maintained, would bring the center inland near Cape Canaveral. While it is still possible that the center misses land, it is by no means certain, and even a track a few miles offshore will still have huge impacts on east-central and northeast Florida.

The 'It's gonna miss'' crowd needs to chill.

If the NHC track comes anywhere close to verifying it is going to be horrendous from Brevard county north and a frighteningly close shave south of there to palm beach. Florida is under a threat for a long time...the storm has only passed the latitude of extreme south fl..

The "It's gonna miss" crowd may be right about the EYE making official landfall but the wind field is expanding and unless this thing suddenly makes a complete turn its going to have HURRICAN force winds into Florida. Probably a good 50+ miles in as well. This is not even considering the STORM SURGE wchich is going to be devastating.

So yes it may not be a "hit" but by god its not "all clear" and MANY LIVES ARE AT STAKE

[delta lady]

Remember, Hurricane Charley made a hard right turn just hours before landfall when it was expected to go further up the coast. It also intensified from a category 2 to a category 4 in a single advisory. How many people were calling an all clear for Port Charlotte at the time?

How quickly people forget this lesson from mother nature.


If you are under a hurricane warning, you need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Don't assume "it should go North of me", one wobble left and your world could dramatically change.

I'll never forget it. I was online at the time, living in SW Orlando and saw that when it was posted. It gave me a couple hours before it hit the MSM, and I beat everybody to the store. Just forgot to buy that chainsaw.......

[Steve]

while ive noticed people wondering about nicole and if she will affect matthew at all, is it possible that when matthew takes his uturn that he absorbs some of nicole and doesnt weaken as much?

It's impossible to tell because it's a weird scenario in the Western Atlantic. Over the last several years, and there was one season in particular where it happened twice, there have been companion systems with a bigger one west and smaller one east. But they were on the move north and farther out in the Atlantic. What the 18z GFS showed to me was that on the loop back, there is some interaction whereas Nicole gets swung temporarily west as Matthew slingshots back eventually to the southwest. But Nicole is awesome. The 18z spaghetti plot is the best spaghetti plot I've ever seen. I downsaved it to email the bosses to change my avatar to it. It's completely great. I have a different version saved, but still... (Storm 15 obviously)

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots