ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bg1]

looks like the inner eye has merged with the outer one on radar to some degree

We've been saying this all day, and then it just comes right back

[Hammy]

I'm still thinking just offshore but should it come ashore I'd say probably Volusia county somewhere.

[HurrMark]

I didn't see any winds over 85 kts on the last couple of passes through the eye, and the winds will be weaker left of the track. It's also well east of the forecast. Might miss the east coast of Florida, yet. Much better than a strengthening Cat 4 heading into the coast near Palm Beach. Even Cat 1 hurricane winds can do a lot of damage, though.

What would you peg the winds at?

[1900hurricane]

With concentric eyewalls leading to a less focused pressure gradient, Matthew's pressure and wind may actually fairly close (if not even lower) than the old AH77 relationship.

[Prof]

I am confused by the latest discussions and what is m seeing in the news. My house is in Melbourne and most of my friends' houses are in Indialantic and Melbourne Beach. None of us is there right now. What is expected with the storm there tonight. Is it weakening? My beachside friends were expecting 150mph winds.

[JaxGator]

We've had a Nor' easter for the past few days and it's been raining a lot off and on until a 2 hours ago. It made storm prep more difficult but I'm glad it stopped. However, the NWS Jax radar shows a huge rainband associated with Matthew quickly approaching from the south. I'd heard that it's been drenching Orlando and Central Florida with a lot of rain so far.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Anyone near West Palm that can report conditions?

Pretty steady rain. Winds are gusting as strong as they ever been, but I wouldn't say more than 50 mph.

[ronyan]

I'm still thinking just offshore but should it come ashore I'd say probably Volusia county somewhere.

The geography makes that pretty unlikely I would think, but if you're right on that one I'll be the first to say it.

[Hurricaneman]

I would peg this at no higher than 120mph based on recon but the if the ERC should finish this could come back some

[cjrciadt]

I'm prepared to make my call:

Merrit Island, 934mb, 134mph

The possible storm surge they are saying is 7 plus feet!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Also could still wobble for an hour on a more NW heading and come in anywhere lol

You are the only one with common sense it seems.

[decgirl66]

Titusville, North Brevard county. Quiet for now. A few little squalls, but nothing major.

[ozonepete]

pretty much central florida..

You're not picking Satellite Beach, lol?

nope. been tracking th the overall system and still NW. the eye is wobbling and is about to due another westward circle.. ridging still in place. brevard northward

I would also ask, don't you think with all tropical models offshore now that landfall is pretty unlikely?

[Hurricaneman]

I say this comes in around Melbourne but could come in farther south if there is more of a west wobble or if theres an east wobble this may just miss landfall so its all about the wobbles

[KC7NEC]

I'm prepared to make my call:

Merrit Island, 934mb, 134mph

The possible storm surge they are saying is 7 plus feet!

Good point. Anyone know if a location is UNDER water it still can be landfall?

[Aric Dunn]

You're not picking Satellite Beach, lol?

nope. been tracking th the overall system and still NW. the eye is wobbling and is about to due another westward circle.. ridging still in place. brevard northward

I would also ask, don't you think with all tropical models offshore now that landfall is pretty unlikely?

we all know how this goes.. wobble wobble.. if you still looking at the models for the 12 to 24 hours its pointless. .but enjoy ..

[Soonercane]

The US has been very lucky, unfortunatley this time our luck came at the expense of the Caribbean nations and the bahamas.

[shawn6304]

I saw the interview with the rep from FPL he did say they were expecting 2.5 mill outages.

Very possible. Just letting ya know what I've been briefed on. And 2.5 million would blow anything I've been on out of the water. I think sandy was 750,000 at peak. And it was absolutely insane!!!

That could be what they're prepared for, even if the actual number is lower--as with anything it's better to be over-prepared than under.[/quote]

I gotcha, he made it sound like they were prepared, he said they had 15k people ready to get power back up and running.

[HDGator]

Anyone near West Palm that can report conditions?

Palm Beach Gardens ~8m north

991mb
Winds NNW 18 Gust 34 mph
1.27" Rain

[fci]

All Miami TV stations have stopped wall-to-wall hurricane coverage, I'm watching Thursday Night Football on WFOR (CBS)

I think that's pretty dangerous and irresponsible, hurricanes can always take surprise dips and turns, and it's still catastrophic for the upper 2/3rds of the east FL coast and I'd hope to think that all FL citizens would be worried and inclined to know what's coming.

Makes total sense to me for Miami stations to resume programming. The event is over for them.