ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Wasn't the HRRR showing this going into Dade/Broward on last night's runs? If so...I'd chuck that one for tropical systems. I'm expecting the NHC to shift east in their 11pm advisory...then again I expected that at 5 and it didn't happen..

[AutoPenalti]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

It's a no-win situation.

Yup, and when another one shows up, they will be complacent and be told they were "never warned."

[eastcoastFL]

By far having our worst conditions (just south of the airport). Definitely had a few gusts approach hurricane strength.

We are just southwest of airport and same situation.

What airport?

[taveanator]

Can someone post the link to radar please. I am on my kindle and can't find it.

Try this one as well:
https://goo.gl/IPwVBh

[fci]

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... query=KPBI

Bad data.

OK...how do you know? I assume international airports are calibrated.

Because I am watching wall to wall coverage on the local West Palm Beach channel whose studios are miles from the airport and have reporters outside.
I think we might be provided that information, don't you think?

[Hammy]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

It's a no-win situation.

Not to mistakenly sound like I want landfall, but there's almost a downside to this staying offshore--I've heard (and even talked to) enough people who, with each passing storm, are increasingly confident that nothing will hit Central Florida, and thus take no preparedness measures thinking they're 100% safe and accuse the hurricane center of over-hyping it by issuing warnings when the eye ends up missing in the end.

[stephen23]

[ronyan]

Bad data.

OK...how do you know? I assume international airports are calibrated.

Because I am watching wall to wall coverage on the local West Palm Beach channel whose studios are miles from the airport and have reporters outside.
I think we might be provided that information, don't you think?

Just wanted to know dude. Don't get angry, delete the post.

[NDG]

Latest recon suggests that the inner eyewall is weakening, winds not as strong as earlier, pressure the same or maybe up a mb or two.

Hmm? I see they extrapolated 936mb and actually found 109kt surface winds. That pressure is basically even (need to see a dropsonde in the center) and it's a higher wind speed than the previous plane was finding recently.

Didn't see the NE quadrant.

[bevgo]

Great. Thanks

[otterlyspicey]

Off the wall question that I have been wondering... is the issue with Matthew basically fighting with himself between the smaller and larger eyes... is this all from him going over the mountainous terrain of Cuba and never fully recovering from that? Or would this have likely happened regardless, even if he avoided land.

[Hurricaneman]

This is the classic case of the inner eye expanding into the outer eye which is one type of ERC another type is the inner eye completely dies and the outer one takes over

[fci]

It's interesting to see the snapshots of this board a couple hours apart. When i was last on around 6:30-7ish, I asked if anyone noticed the 18z GFS keeping Matthew offshore of Florida and sending it further north and closer to the NC coast. Everyone was so focused on the fact that they just knew Matt was going to make landfall in their location in the next couple hours that, other than for a few people, my question was basically ignored. The few people that responded basically thought it was an anomaly and more model runs were needed. While i completely understand that 1 run does not make a trend, the GFS and Euro have been doing a decent job for the most part on the storm, in the big long picture of things anyway. Now, I return 3 to 4 hours later, and the board has calmed down immensely with the imminent landfall discussions, and people are actually talking about it missing Florida all together, and NC may be in play again. I wonder where i heard that before? These snapshots in time, are really fun.

With all due respect when a Category 4 storm is threatening your area; talk about what's going to happen in a few days takes a back seat.
Is that a surprise to you?

[weathaguyry]

Ok, so bad situation, I have a family friend in Port Orange ,6 miles inland, and I asked her earlier if she had everything ready and she did, and I asked if her shutters were on securely, and she said that she didn't have shutters!!!!!!!! I am very very nervous for her, she said that she had her car packed up in case they had had to leave (don't see the use for that.) Can you guys please tell me what to tell her, she still has power and phone reception, she has everything from outside inside, and she had food, water, and gas in the car. Any help is well appreciated!!!

Not to be annoying, but I'm trying to get this message out

[stephen23]

BIG jog to the west in progress it appears on radar

[marye45]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

Don't forget too that there is now that stupid conspiracy theory that the government fudged the wind speed

[fci]

Frankly disgusted by social media chatter in Miami complaining "Nothing happened", media hype, etc. No win situation for NHC. People obviously think Matthew didn't really exist and was a creation of Publix, Home Depot and the media.

It's a no-win situation.

Yup, and when another one shows up, they will be complacent and be told they were "never warned."

Well I live in Lake Worth where to worst we have gotten is Tropical Storm winds. Put up shutters and prepared for the worst.
Given a Hurricane Warning in the future, I will do the same exact thing.

[ozonepete]

Off the wall question that I have been wondering... is the issue with Matthew basically fighting with himself between the smaller and larger eyes... is this all from him going over the mountainous terrain of Cuba and never fully recovering from that? Or would this have likely happened regardless, even if he avoided land.

The eyewall replacement is a normal cycle in the most powerful hurricanes. They are almost never caused by terrain and this one certainly had no influence from passage over Cuba. But once they start they can be disrupted by terrain for sure and then never complete. Each case is different.

[HurricaneFrances04]

By far having our worst conditions (just south of the airport). Definitely had a few gusts approach hurricane strength.

We are just southwest of airport and same situation.

What airport?

Palm Beach International. Looking at the radar, we had a strong band move through.

[Steve]

It's interesting to see the snapshots of this board a couple hours apart. When i was last on around 6:30-7ish, I asked if anyone noticed the 18z GFS keeping Matthew offshore of Florida and sending it further north and closer to the NC coast. Everyone was so focused on the fact that they just knew Matt was going to make landfall in their location in the next couple hours that, other than for a few people, my question was basically ignored. The few people that responded basically thought it was an anomaly and more model runs were needed. While i completely understand that 1 run does not make a trend, the GFS and Euro have been doing a decent job for the most part on the storm, in the big long picture of things anyway. Now, I return 3 to 4 hours later, and the board has calmed down immensely with the imminent landfall discussions, and people are actually talking about it missing Florida all together, and NC may be in play again. I wonder where i heard that before? These snapshots in time, are really fun.

it happened last night too during the 00z model runs. I was kind of shocked. But it's whatever. I'm going to watch it and enjoy tracking it. Where I'm wrong I'm wrong, right I'm right. I'm here to learn like everyone else. And we're kind of getting to a critical time now where the radar derived and early tropical models diverge. It's a major league difference. TWC is on one tv with the sound off, but they were showing that arc SW just south of Daytona through the northern Orlando suburbs with another band coming through. That's the area that last hour was up to 5-6" and centered sort of around southern Volusia and Seminole Counties.