ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

For those that can't reach NHC.

NHC Should do a combined map with Nicole, since they would both fit in the same one.

[kpost]

Rightfully so. It's BS to claim a wobble as evidence that the storm is making a hard left turn. Either that or you both are legally blind. I really wish there could be a forum just for pro met discussion. It gets old having to sift through all the noise here. I can't believe how much patience some of the mods have.

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

[ncweatherwizard]

About 85 kts SFMR and 105 kts FL in the NW quadrant of outer eyewall now.

Edit: Typo. 85kts, not 95kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar showing another wobble more to yhe wnw to nw. Heading still right towards central florida

I mentioned this a while back and Ozonepete got all over me for it.

Rightfully so. It's BS to claim a wobble as evidence that the storm is making a hard left turn. Either that or you both are legally blind. I really wish there could be a forum just for pro met discussion. It gets old having to sift through all the noise here. I can't believe how much patience some of the mods have.

Who said hard left. Its been nw all day. . Work out the wobbles and there you have it. The inner eye is wobbling all about. Still on track to possibly cross the coast in brevard somewhere.

[Aric Dunn]

The gap is closing fast to the coast. Out eyewall nearing the coast. Inner eye looking towards cape can canveral

[Alyono]

Final phases of the EWRC. The two eyewalls are becoming one now

[kpost]

I asked earlier, so sorry if it's wrong to ask again..

Out side Melbourne high tide is now, what effect will this have with the approach of Matthew?

[MetroMike]

If it has concentric eyewalls would the outer one going over land still be considered a hit?

Still a hit to me.

I had messed up about saying the eye just scraped land. It did, in fact go over the western tip. Also, I think the outer wall striking would be considered a direct hit. Here's the definition per NHC:

Direct hit: A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

With the outer wall displaying a strong wind maximum, even at the surface now, I think the outer wall hitting will suffice.

Thanks for clearing that up, on the spot research is top notch.

[FLpanhandle91]

That may be all she wrote for our inner eye. New, larger eye seems to be tracking 330ish.

[fci]

With all due respect when a Category 4 storm is threatening your area; talk about what's going to happen in a few days takes a back seat.
Is that a surprise to you?

It's also a function of the geographic distribution of posters. We have a boatload of Florida folks on here and while I can't speak for the rest of them...when the cane is in radar range...I'm not looking a models. North Carolina will get its deserved attention in due time. But first we have FL/GA/SC.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on one point Psyclone. Even though this board is probably in the top 3 of tropical weather information sites, it has always been notoriously Florida centric. When Matthew clears Florida, traffic will drop off 80% from what it is now. GA, SC, and NC will not "get it's deserved attention". I'm not upset. I know that at least 80%, and probably 90% of the members are from Florida, so I understand. I just wish that the zeal for tropical weather was as strong when Florida wasn't effected.

I think that when there is a Texas or La. threat the board traffic ramps up too. I think a lot of members live there too.
I know when there is a threat there and a possible landfall; I refrain from posting. They don't need my "sage wisdom" when they are under the gun. I respect their space then.

[Sanibel]

The radar image is starting to look impressive like a healthy cyclone.

[stephen23]

Radar showing another wobble more to yhe wnw to nw. Heading still right towards central florida

I mentioned this a while back and Ozonepete got all over me for it.

Rightfully so. It's BS to claim a wobble as evidence that the storm is making a hard left turn. Either that or you both are legally blind. I really wish there could be a forum just for pro met discussion. It gets old having to sift through all the noise here. I can't believe how much patience some of the mods have.

I don't remember ever saying that the storm took a hard left turn. What I did say is it took a big jog to the west. Maybe in meteorologist terms that means something different then the dictionary meaning of jog, but I was in no way trying to say the storm has change long term heading to the west. Maybe I should have used the word big wobble west, because radar does not deny that the storm certainly moved closer to the Florida coast for a period of time. These "wobbles" keep moving this thing closer to the shoreline in my opinion. If I am wrong then please let me know how instead of just reprimanding without any explanation or teaching. I am here to learn.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the inner eyewall may finally be losing the battle against the new outer eyewall. Completely open to the south. May just become one giant eye.

[brunota2003]

Rightfully so. It's BS to claim a wobble as evidence that the storm is making a hard left turn. Either that or you both are legally blind. I really wish there could be a forum just for pro met discussion. It gets old having to sift through all the noise here. I can't believe how much patience some of the mods have.

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

We have a subforum where only pro-mets and approved amateurs can post...it's called "Tropical Analysis" and you can access it from this ATL forum (its at the top). But no one really uses it...because 90% of members can't post there.

This is a discussion thread for EVERYONE to use, regardless of skill level. Cutting out the majority of users would be completely against everything this site has been about and built itself on over the years.

[Hurricaneman]

That may be all she wrote for our inner eye. New, larger eye seems to be tracking 330ish.

Id say moving at 315 but thats still NW and should get the eye right on Cape Canaveral

[Aric Dunn]

The outer eye has contracted a lot..

[DIwestender]

If the hurricane follows the NHC track and timing, approximately when would the coastal areas of SC begin to experience significant flooding? I would like to get an idea of how long flooding gets problematic prior to the hurricane actually arriving. For instance, would flooding begin prior to the hurricane being visible on a Charleston radar?

[FLpanhandle91]

That may be all she wrote for our inner eye. New, larger eye seems to be tracking 330ish.

Id say moving at 315 but thats still NW and should get the eye right on Cape Canaveral

Yeah kinda hard to establish direction in my opinion. I'd agree with you though. wobbling between 315 and 330.

[bqknight]

When is Diurnal Max? Would this increase rain and storms?

[Hurricaneman]

The outer eye has contracted a lot..

looks to be about 40mi in diameter