ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

There used to be something like that, but it wasn't really frequented all that much. I don't really come on here much anymore, but I prefer just having things the way they are now. I can cut through the BS pretty easily, and I enjoy answering questions when I can.

Yeah, I realized afterwards that apparently that forum no longer exists (despite showing it is there, guess it was never ported over during the upgrade). The whole reason it wasn't frequented was because most people couldn't post there, and it just never really caught on.

[Mello1]

Let's talk surge a bit. After Katrina I came across houses that were deposited in the street. My home had some water.....not sure how much as we bought it long after Katrina but the house next door was a pile of bricks. It is still nothing but a slab and piles of bricks. Surge is really bad. I had a patient close to a source of water....not ON the water. His home went under. He was sheltering in his truck because home was a trailer. He had to swim out when water filled his truck. He was covered by fire ant bites from them being in the water. Said he saw lots of snakes and they were all in the trees. He was unable to rest while swimming due to so many snakes and ants. Katrina was a day storm so he was able to see well. If it had been night he likely would died from grabbing a limb and being bitten by a snake. Run from water, hide from wind.

If there is still anyone who thinks this storm isn't about much, I just saw the worst video ever. Someone in a high rise near a road along the ocean. The surge was coming in and these cars were driving and the water just went over them and covered them. Why they were out there driving at a time like this I don't know, but wave after wave of water was going over them.

I hope they survived that. They are fortunate that their cars waan't swept out to sea.

[mpic]

I'm going to have to disagree with you on one point Psyclone. Even though this board is probably in the top 3 of tropical weather information sites, it has always been notoriously Florida centric. When Matthew clears Florida, traffic will drop off 80% from what it is now. GA, SC, and NC will not "get it's deserved attention". I'm not upset. I know that at least 80%, and probably 90% of the members are from Florida, so I understand. I just wish that the zeal for tropical weather was as strong when Florida wasn't effected.

I think that when there is a Texas or La. threat the board traffic ramps up too. I think a lot of members live there too.
I know when there is a threat there and a possible landfall; I refrain from posting. They don't need my "sage wisdom" when they are under the gun. I respect their space then.

I personally would like sage wisdom, even if it is from India. Wisdom is always good.

I second that wisdom is always good. Sometimes I think it's better to have people out of the area because they don't have the same emotion clouding the situation at hand

[craptacular]

Last VDM from hurricane hunters only reported one larger eye now:
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)

[Uhoh13]

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

We have a subforum where only pro-mets and approved amateurs can post...it's called "Tropical Analysis" and you can access it from this ATL forum (its at the top). But no one really uses it...because 90% of members can't post there.

This is a discussion thread for EVERYONE to use, regardless of skill level. Cutting out the majority of users would be completely against everything this site has been about and built itself on over the years.

There used to be something like that, but it wasn't really frequented all that much. I don't really come on here much anymore, but I prefer just having things the way they are now. I can cut through the BS pretty easily, and I enjoy answering questions when I can.[/quote

I'm a newb! But this is a forum, but there needs to be a little patience for us al roker wanna be's, just saying, we're not all stupid, and we're trying to learn.

[Andrew92]

According to NCWeatherWizard's definition and the latest advisory at 11 PM EDT, Matthew needs to be within 60 miles of Florida (hurricane winds extend 60 miles out). As of the latest position update that just came out, Matthew is 60 miles east of Fort Pierce.

Matthew is therefore very close to counting as a Florida hit as a hurricane, if not already, if I am understanding everything correctly.

-Andrew92

Not quite. It needs to be within a radius of maximum wind. So that's still, I don't know, about 20-30 miles out just eyeballing it.

OK, now I get it. I just overlooked the maximum wind portion of the explanation. Thanks a lot!

Personally, with the continued northwest track, and being what appears to be about 10 miles closer to the coast at midnight than at 11 PM, I think it will get close enough to count a couple hours after I go to bed or so. It mathematically would be sooner I think if Matthew continues on a straight line, but I am trying to account for any wobbles that might take place. (I will be up for probably two more hours, living out west.)

-Andrew92

[Steve]

Stick your thumb or paper or something over the inner eyewall and watch the progression of the western eyewall. Dont be decived

You'd think, right? It's clear. I'm still of the opinion that various models were tracking various vortices to come up with the divergent solutions. Eye may parallel for while and may never completely landfall, but the motion has been identifiable.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Last VDM from hurricane hunters only reported one larger eye now:
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)

With it being more then 50% gone now they must not consider it a Eyewall anymore.

[stephen23]

Looks to be 45 miles of coast

[crm6360]

This would be an amazing forum, especially if lurkers were allowed to read but not comment.

We have a subforum where only pro-mets and approved amateurs can post...it's called "Tropical Analysis" and you can access it from this ATL forum (its at the top). But no one really uses it...because 90% of members can't post there.

This is a discussion thread for EVERYONE to use, regardless of skill level. Cutting out the majority of users would be completely against everything this site has been about and built itself on over the years.

There used to be something like that, but it wasn't really frequented all that much. I don't really come on here much anymore, but I prefer just having things the way they are now. I can cut through the BS pretty easily, and I enjoy answering questions when I can.

I'm all for users asking questions. What I don't like are amateurs giving their opinion as fact, especially when it's often transparent that they are just -removed-.

[ncweatherwizard]

In the recent north to south transect, the outer eyewall has higher flight level winds on both sides of the core. The surface wind is quite a bit more complicated. I wouldn't say the EWRC is near completion because the inner eyewall remains very intense, but the cycle is definitely progressing.

On a related note, I wonder if the double pressure minimum (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... series.png) is real or if it had something to do with the flight path.

[craptacular]

On a related note, I wonder if the double pressure minimum (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... series.png) is real or if it had something to do with the flight path.

They did a counterclockwise loop on the last pass through the eye.

[stephen23]

[Alyono]

In the recent north to south transect, the outer eyewall has higher flight level winds on both sides of the core. The surface wind is quite a bit more complicated. I wouldn't say the EWRC is near completion because the inner eyewall remains very intense, but the cycle is definitely progressing.

On a related note, I wonder if the double pressure minimum (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... series.png) is real or if it had something to do with the flight path.

flight path

[bjackrian]

54kt gust at Vero Beach, sustained at 34kt.

KVRB 070402Z AUTO 35034G54KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN014 BKN022 OVC027 26/24 A2935 RMK AO2 PK WND 35054/0402

[Lifeless]

In the recent north to south transect, the outer eyewall has higher flight level winds on both sides of the core. The surface wind is quite a bit more complicated. I wouldn't say the EWRC is near completion because the inner eyewall remains very intense, but the cycle is definitely progressing.

On a related note, I wonder if the double pressure minimum (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... series.png) is real or if it had something to do with the flight path.

The recon data shows it going in a loop near the eyewall, perhaps something to do with that flight movement?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Last VDM from hurricane hunters only reported one larger eye now:
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)

Major development. The previous VDM only reported a 12 nautical mile eye.

[Sanibel]

That inner eyewall better not landfall because if it hits a river mouth it will ram surge with that one good band.

[ncweatherwizard]

On a related note, I wonder if the double pressure minimum (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... series.png) is real or if it had something to do with the flight path.

They did a counterclockwise loop on the last pass through the eye.

Ok. That makes sense. Thanks!

[Uhoh13]

So I'll pose this question again. If Matt and Nicole meet can they marry? Or is it more like trump and Rosie? Seriously, can they join or will the repel each other like two spinning tops coming together?