ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Some of the circulations you are seeing are mid-level like the one NW of Jamaica. The low-level circulation is further south and heading towards Belize.

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the data of the NOAA P-3 that is on route? Our friend HURAKAN (Sandy) is among the crew.

[Aric Dunn]

Showing much more expansive vorticity once it slows a little more could start deepening fairly rapidly

[Aric Dunn]

Recon most likely will find a 60mph system if convection continues to increase like this.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/760564382334119936

[Aric Dunn]

 https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/760564382334119936

yep, its been expanding and deepening. starting to wrap around the n side of the center.. should be an interesting night..

[Aric Dunn]

Given its current speed of organizing and convective pattern improvements and that its probably around 60 mph or 65.. could see a hurricane by morning if trends continue.

[hriverajr]

Robust feeded band on south side.. at the same time arc clouds racing out the NW side....

[Hammy]

Is the NOAA plane a low-level or upper air flight?

[Bad_Hurricane]

#Raw data from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft, courtesy of the
#National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
#For instructions on how to read the data, view:
#http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/NHC_recon_guide.pdf

180530 2751N 08230W 0104 00074 0185 +315 +204 060005 007 /// /// 03
180600 2752N 08229W 9963 00196 0185 +301 +199 066005 006 /// /// 03
180630 2752N 08227W 9817 00337 0193 +289 +199 050004 004 /// /// 03
180700 2752N 08225W 9587 00546 0193 +271 +197 054005 005 /// /// 03
180730 2753N 08223W 9385 00734 0192 +254 +192 061004 005 /// /// 03
180800 2753N 08221W 9189 00917 0191 +241 +191 062003 004 /// /// 03
180830 2754N 08219W 9029 01069 0192 +227 +182 075003 004 /// /// 03
180900 2753N 08217W 8803 01291 0193 +210 +169 108004 005 /// /// 03
180930 2751N 08216W 8720 01375 0194 +204 +153 120004 005 /// /// 03
181000 2749N 08216W 8421 01676 0196 +186 +119 131003 003 /// /// 03
181030 2747N 08216W 8191 01912 0199 +170 +115 138001 002 /// /// 03
181100 2745N 08217W 8021 02091 0200 +155 +105 084001 002 /// /// 03
181130 2743N 08217W 7821 02304 0200 +146 +068 331003 005 /// /// 03
181200 2741N 08218W 7603 02542 0197 +134 +061 261003 004 /// /// 03
181230 2739N 08218W 7446 02717 0193 +125 +061 193003 005 /// /// 03
181300 2737N 08218W 7266 02922 0195 +109 +049 123001 002 /// /// 03
181330 2735N 08218W 7115 03096 0195 +098 +037 167004 007 /// /// 03
181400 2733N 08219W 6883 03371 0192 +084 +022 177006 006 /// /// 03
181430 2731N 08219W 6684 03614 0193 +070 +003 171008 009 /// /// 03
181500 2729N 08219W 6494 03851 0195 +054 -021 175007 008 /// /// 03
181530 2727N 08219W 6379 03994 0195 +045 -058 160005 006 /// /// 03
181600 2725N 08219W 6268 04136 0191 +040 -105 148005 006 /// /// 03
181630 2723N 08218W 6113 04340 0196 +024 -111 161005 005 /// /// 03
181700 2720N 08218W 5948 04562 0197 +008 -077 159004 005 /// /// 03
181730 2718N 08218W 5778 04794 0193 -005 -074 180004 005 /// /// 03
181800 2716N 08218W 5663 04953 0187 -013 -087 173005 005 /// /// 03
181830 2714N 08218W 5575 05078 0181 -017 -103 182008 009 /// /// 03
181900 2712N 08217W 5464 05239 0323 -025 -120 183006 008 /// /// 03
181930 2710N 08217W 5382 05357 0329 -032 -148 169004 005 /// /// 03
182000 2708N 08218W 5297 05486 0335 -037 -159 122003 004 /// /// 03
182030 2706N 08220W 5255 05545 0338 -036 -165 104004 004 /// /// 03
182100 2704N 08221W 5176 05661 0344 -040 -185 115004 005 /// /// 03
182130 2702N 08223W 5091 05795 0351 -048 -182 103006 007 /// /// 03
182200 2701N 08225W 5018 05907 0358 -058 -176 093008 008 /// /// 03
182230 2659N 08227W 4952 06010 0364 -066 -178 087008 008 /// /// 03
182300 2657N 08228W 4856 06160 0373 -074 -169 068008 008 /// /// 03
182330 2655N 08230W 4789 06272 0379 -081 -152 070007 008 /// /// 03
182400 2654N 08232W 4741 06346 0382 -084 -170 080007 007 /// /// 03
182430 2652N 08234W 4741 06347 0380 -083 -165 079006 006 /// /// 03
182500 2650N 08236W 4715 06386 0383 -082 -181 069007 007 /// /// 03
182530 2648N 08238W 4647 06497 0389 -084 -229 038007 008 /// /// 03
182600 2646N 08240W 4653 06485 0389 -086 -235 044008 008 006 001 00
182630 2644N 08242W 4646 06506 0392 -085 -233 051008 008 007 000 00
182700 2642N 08244W 4645 06508 0394 -086 -225 059009 009 010 001 00
182730 2640N 08246W 4641 06514 0396 -085 -226 065007 007 006 000 00
182800 2638N 08248W 4642 06514 0397 -085 -218 064007 007 007 000 00
182830 2636N 08250W 4643 06516 0398 -086 -204 058008 008 008 000 00
182900 2634N 08252W 4644 06515 0399 -087 -187 055008 008 006 000 00
182930 2632N 08254W 4642 06516 0399 -086 -186 054007 008 006 000 00
183000 2630N 08256W 4642 06517 0399 -085 -188 051007 007 007 000 00
183030 2628N 08258W 4642 06517 0399 -087 -185 055007 007 005 000 00
183100 2626N 08301W 4643 06517 0401 -085 -186 046005 006 008 000 00
183130 2624N 08303W 4644 06519 0403 -083 -199 050005 005 008 000 00
183200 2622N 08305W 4645 06518 0403 -084 -191 044005 005 008 001 00
183230 2619N 08307W 4645 06516 0403 -086 -175 045005 005 008 000 00
183300 2617N 08310W 4645 06517 0402 -088 -172 052008 009 006 000 00
183330 2615N 08312W 4646 06511 0399 -091 -143 053009 010 008 000 00
183400 2613N 08314W 4648 06505 0396 -091 -162 053008 008 006 001 00
183430 2612N 08316W 4650 06503 0396 -095 -159 052009 009 006 001 00
183500 2610N 08318W 4646 06508 0395 -094 -145 055008 009 007 000 00
183530 2608N 08320W 4645 06508 0395 -094 -172 058008 009 008 001 00
183600 2606N 08321W 4657 06488 0393 -094 -179 058010 010 008 001 00
183630 2604N 08323W 4650 06501 0393 -092 -176 054009 009 009 000 00
183700 2602N 08325W 4654 06492 0393 -097 -186 054011 012 006 001 00
183730 2600N 08327W 4638 06517 0394 -098 -189 057011 012 007 001 00
183800 2559N 08329W 4643 06509 0393 -097 -179 063011 011 010 002 03
183830 2557N 08332W 4669 06466 0392 -093 -196 071010 011 008 001 00
183900 2556N 08334W 4656 06490 0393 -092 -177 063007 008 010 001 00
183930 2555N 08337W 4657 06488 0393 -092 -093 083009 011 009 000 00
184000 2554N 08340W 4657 06486 0392 -093 -129 093009 012 008 001 00
184030 2553N 08342W 4657 06488 0392 -096 -137 017009 011 010 000 00
184100 2552N 08345W 4649 06500 0393 -092 -201 026006 007 014 000 00
184130 2551N 08347W 4641 06512 0394 -092 -214 044006 006 014 001 00
184200 2551N 08350W 4650 06501 0394 -096 -241 048005 007 015 000 00
184230 2550N 08353W 4666 06474 0393 -096 -275 053006 006 013 000 00
184300 2549N 08355W 4660 06482 0393 -097 -262 053006 007 015 000 00
184330 2548N 08358W 4653 06494 0392 -092 -181 056007 007 015 001 00
184400 2547N 08400W 4651 06499 0394 -093 -160 062008 010 016 000 00
184430 2546N 08403W 4648 06503 0395 -095 //// 086007 008 016 000 01
184500 2545N 08405W 4649 06500 0394 -098 -184 097006 007 015 000 00
184530 2545N 08408W 4648 06503 0394 -098 -207 087006 007 017 000 00
184600 2544N 08411W 4649 06501 0395 -094 -206 078007 008 016 000 00
184630 2543N 08414W 4651 06498 0395 -090 -223 076007 007 014 001 03
184700 2542N 08416W 4647 06505 0395 -095 -164 077008 009 020 000 03
184730 2541N 08419W 4650 06503 0396 -098 -193 080009 011 018 010 00
184800 2540N 08421W 4649 06503 0396 -094 -197 074011 011 022 003 00
184830 2540N 08424W 4654 06496 0396 -095 -188 082010 011 021 004 03
184900 2539N 08427W 4650 06503 0396 -092 -196 078009 010 015 000 03
184930 2537N 08429W 4650 06501 0396 -091 -233 076010 010 016 000 00
185000 2536N 08432W 4656 06494 0397 -092 -210 076010 010 015 000 00
185030 2536N 08435W 4652 06499 0396 -090 -226 077009 009 015 000 00
185100 2535N 08437W 4652 06497 0395 -091 -221 068009 009 013 001 00
185130 2534N 08440W 4654 06494 0396 -091 -223 065009 009 013 001 00
185200 2533N 08442W 4654 06494 0395 -090 -216 065008 008 014 000 00
185230 2532N 08445W 4651 06500 0395 -089 -223 067009 009 016 000 00
185300 2531N 08447W 4651 06498 0395 -089 -233 069008 009 015 000 00
185330 2530N 08450W 4652 06499 0395 -090 -229 069010 010 016 000 00
185400 2530N 08452W 4650 06500 0394 -088 -230 070009 010 015 000 00
185430 2529N 08455W 4653 06495 0393 -087 -255 071009 009 014 000 00
185500 2528N 08457W 4652 06496 0392 -087 -239 069009 009 013 000 00
185530 2527N 08500W 4650 06496 0388 -088 -223 066009 009 010 001 00
185600 2526N 08503W 4649 06496 0387 -091 -218 069009 010 013 001 00
185630 2525N 08505W 4647 06496 0387 -092 -193 076010 011 012 001 00
185700 2524N 08508W 4649 06494 0387 -091 -213 076011 011 013 000 00
185730 2523N 08511W 4649 06494 0387 -091 -269 070011 011 014 000 00
185800 2522N 08514W 4648 06495 0387 -089 -282 068011 011 015 000 00
185830 2521N 08517W 4650 06493 0387 -089 -276 069011 012 013 001 00
185900 2521N 08519W 4649 06499 0389 -087 -255 069011 011 014 001 03
185930 2519N 08521W 4651 06493 0389 -090 -231 063011 011 014 001 03
190000 2516N 08522W 4649 06494 0388 -088 -248 064011 011 013 001 00
190030 2514N 08524W 4650 06493 0387 -088 -253 063011 011 016 000 00
190100 2512N 08525W 4648 06493 0385 -086 -224 066011 011 016 001 00
190130 2509N 08527W 4649 06490 0384 -085 -212 070010 010 016 000 00
190200 2507N 08529W 4650 06490 0383 -084 -222 071010 010 015 000 00
190230 2505N 08530W 4651 06488 0382 -086 -223 073011 012 015 000 00
190300 2502N 08532W 4650 06488 0381 -085 -212 069010 010 015 000 00
190330 2500N 08533W 4650 06487 0380 -086 -215 071011 012 016 000 00
190400 2458N 08535W 4650 06487 0380 -085 -210 071010 011 018 000 00
190430 2455N 08536W 4649 06486 0380 -084 -221 074009 009 019 000 00
190500 2453N 08538W 4650 06485 0379 -084 -232 074009 009 020 000 00
190530 2450N 08539W 4650 06485 0379 -084 -225 072008 009 019 000 00
190600 2448N 08541W 4639 06502 0380 -086 -222 070008 009 020 000 00
190630 2445N 08542W 4637 06505 0380 -092 -143 055008 008 020 000 00
190700 2443N 08544W 4636 06505 0380 -090 //// 055008 008 019 000 01
190730 2440N 08545W 4638 06505 0380 -090 -189 056009 010 019 000 00
190800 2438N 08547W 4637 06506 0380 -088 -218 055010 010 017 000 00
190830 2435N 08548W 4637 06504 0380 -090 -129 054009 010 016 000 00
190900 2433N 08550W 4638 06505 0379 -091 -193 057010 011 020 000 00
190930 2430N 08551W 4638 06504 0379 -088 -202 055011 012 021 000 00
191000 2428N 08553W 4639 06504 0379 -086 -228 061011 012 020 000 00
191030 2425N 08555W 4638 06503 0379 -087 -209 065011 011 019 000 00
191100 2423N 08556W 4641 06510 0386 -087 -224 064011 011 020 000 00
191130 2420N 08558W 4640 06518 0396 -088 -204 067012 012 021 000 00
191200 2418N 08559W 4639 06519 0396 -088 -188 071012 012 018 000 00
191230 2416N 08601W 4640 06519 0397 -090 -172 073012 013 017 000 00
191300 2413N 08603W 4639 06519 0397 -088 -181 073011 011 017 000 00
191330 2411N 08604W 4639 06518 0397 -088 -168 069012 012 020 000 00
191400 2408N 08606W 4640 06518 0396 -088 -160 068012 012 019 000 00
191430 2406N 08607W 4641 06517 0396 -086 -174 068011 011 020 000 00
191500 2403N 08609W 4638 06516 0394 -087 -177 061011 011 018 000 03
191530 2401N 08610W 4639 06516 0395 -086 -184 056011 011 013 000 00
191600 2358N 08610W 4641 06516 0395 -086 -178 068011 012 014 000 00
191630 2355N 08611W 4641 06514 0394 -087 -186 071011 012 015 000 00
191700 2353N 08612W 4641 06514 0394 -089 -180 071010 011 017 000 00
191730 2350N 08612W 4641 06513 0394 -088 -185 068011 011 018 000 00
191800 2347N 08613W 4642 06513 0393 -088 -191 070010 010 018 000 00
191830 2345N 08613W 4642 06512 0393 -088 -179 064009 009 018 000 00
191900 2342N 08614W 4641 06512 0393 -088 -161 063010 010 018 000 00
191930 2339N 08615W 4642 06510 0392 -087 -168 061011 011 017 000 00
192000 2337N 08615W 4641 06511 0391 -087 -174 054011 011 018 000 00
192030 2334N 08616W 4641 06511 0392 -086 -186 056010 010 018 000 00
192100 2331N 08616W 4641 06510 0391 -086 -192 055010 010 017 000 00
192130 2329N 08617W 4642 06510 0391 -086 -191 055010 011 016 000 00
192200 2326N 08618W 4641 06511 0392 -088 -178 063011 012 016 000 00
192230 2323N 08618W 4641 06512 0392 -088 -186 078010 010 016 000 00
192300 2320N 08619W 4643 06510 0392 -087 -206 074011 011 017 000 00
192330 2318N 08620W 4642 06509 0391 -086 -181 069011 011 016 000 00
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192500 2310N 08622W 4643 06510 0392 -087 -235 076012 013 017 000 00
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192630 2302N 08624W 4644 06507 0391 -085 -227 071011 011 017 000 00
192700 2259N 08624W 4643 06510 0392 -087 -173 078010 010 017 000 00
192730 2256N 08625W 4643 06508 0392 -088 -135 080010 010 017 000 00
192800 2254N 08625W 4644 06507 0391 -088 -200 078011 011 019 000 00
192830 2251N 08626W 4642 06509 0392 -086 -209 082009 009 018 000 00
192900 2248N 08626W 4643 06508 0392 -086 -243 080009 010 016 000 00
192930 2246N 08627W 4645 06501 0389 -085 -232 079008 008 017 000 03
193000 2243N 08625W 4643 06508 0390 -087 -233 074009 010 018 001 00
193030 2241N 08624W 4643 06508 0390 -085 -224 075009 010 015 000 00
193100 2238N 08623W 4643 06506 0391 -084 -253 075009 009 015 000 00
193130 2236N 08622W 4645 06505 0390 -086 -282 070008 008 016 000 00
193200 2234N 08620W 4643 06504 0389 -087 -285 070008 008 017 000 00
193230 2231N 08619W 4645 06504 0389 -090 -222 076007 008 017 000 00
193300 2229N 08618W 4646 06503 0389 -087 -240 076007 007 017 000 00
193330 2226N 08616W 4645 06503 0388 -090 -276 085006 006 013 000 00
193400 2224N 08615W 4644 06502 0388 -088 -278 078006 006 014 000 00
193430 2222N 08614W 4645 06501 0388 -087 -289 071005 006 016 000 00
193500 2219N 08612W 4644 06502 0388 -087 -285 083006 006 017 000 00
193530 2217N 08611W 4644 06501 0388 -085 -294 077006 006 015 000 00
193600 2215N 08609W 4644 06500 0387 -084 -273 074006 006 014 000 00
193630 2212N 08608W 4646 06499 0386 -084 -254 063006 006 013 000 00
193700 2210N 08607W 4644 06500 0386 -084 -248 063006 006 012 000 00
193730 2208N 08605W 4644 06500 0386 -085 -262 071005 005 013 000 00
193800 2205N 08604W 4647 06499 0386 -087 -276 069005 005 014 000 00
193830 2203N 08603W 4645 06500 0386 -088 -266 084005 005 014 000 00
193900 2200N 08601W 4645 06499 0386 -092 -237 082005 005 015 000 00
193930 2158N 08600W 4647 06497 0386 -092 -186 082004 004 011 000 00
194000 2156N 08559W 4647 06496 0385 -088 -231 064004 004 013 000 00
194030 2153N 08557W 4647 06497 0385 -081 -252 059004 005 014 000 00
194100 2151N 08556W 4646 06497 0385 -083 -221 073004 005 015 000 00
194130 2148N 08555W 4647 06495 0385 -088 -256 066005 005 015 000 00
194200 2146N 08553W 4646 06496 0384 -087 -254 059004 005 015 000 00
194230 2144N 08552W 4646 06496 0384 -089 -246 056005 005 015 000 00
194300 2141N 08551W 4647 06494 0384 -089 -225 056004 004 016 000 00
194330 2139N 08549W 4646 06497 0385 -090 -215 085004 004 016 000 00
194400 2136N 08548W 4646 06496 0385 -095 -156 082005 005 014 000 00
194430 2134N 08547W 4646 06495 0385 -093 -165 080006 006 016 000 00
194500 2132N 08545W 4649 06494 0384 -087 -206 074007 008 018 005 00
194530 2129N 08544W 4632 06515 0380 -089 -181 083007 015 028 016 03
194600 2127N 08542W 4620 06534 0383 -099 //// 039006 009 017 008 01
194630 2126N 08541W 4654 06484 0382 -090 //// 057005 007 012 001 01
194700 2124N 08539W 4655 06478 0380 -092 -174 072006 007 014 000 00
194730 2122N 08538W 4655 06479 0379 -094 -174 082007 007 015 000 00
194800 2121N 08536W 4654 06478 0380 -095 -174 081007 008 012 000 00
194830 2119N 08534W 4657 06477 0380 -097 -171 090008 008 013 000 00
194900 2117N 08532W 4654 06479 0380 -097 -178 086006 006 014 000 00
194930 2115N 08531W 4653 06480 0380 -095 -186 086006 007 014 000 00
195000 2113N 08529W 4653 06480 0380 -095 -188 084008 008 015 000 00
195030 2111N 08527W 4654 06481 0380 -091 -189 065007 007 015 000 00
195100 2109N 08525W 4652 06481 0380 -090 -186 065007 007 014 001 00
195130 2107N 08524W 4653 06480 0380 -089 -188 065007 007 016 000 00
195200 2105N 08522W 4654 06481 0380 -090 -190 073007 007 021 001 00
195230 2103N 08520W 4654 06479 0380 -089 -191 064007 007 021 001 00
195300 2101N 08518W 4653 06480 0381 -088 -189 056007 007 023 001 00
195330 2059N 08516W 4653 06482 0381 -086 -150 060009 010 019 000 00
195400 2057N 08515W 4654 06480 0379 -086 -092 054009 010 018 000 00
195430 2055N 08513W 4654 06479 0379 -086 -196 049007 008 016 000 00
195500 2053N 08511W 4654 06477 0379 -087 -196 057008 009 014 000 00
195530 2051N 08509W 4655 06477 0379 -087 -194 050010 010 015 000 00
195600 2049N 08507W 4654 06478 0378 -088 -179 035009 010 016 000 00
195630 2047N 08505W 4654 06476 0378 -086 -184 036009 010 016 000 00
195700 2045N 08503W 4654 06478 0379 -080 -231 056007 008 016 000 00
195730 2043N 08501W 4654 06480 0380 -076 -235 072008 009 013 000 00
195800 2041N 08459W 4654 06479 0380 -080 -223 069009 010 014 000 00
195830 2039N 08457W 4654 06478 0380 -082 -227 071009 009 014 000 00
195900 2037N 08455W 4656 06478 0380 -082 -234 062010 010 013 000 00
195930 2035N 08454W 4654 06481 0381 -082 -235 063010 010 013 000 00
200000 2033N 08452W 4656 06478 0381 -083 -223 061010 011 013 000 00
200030 2031N 08450W 4654 06479 0381 -083 -205 058009 010 013 000 00
200100 2029N 08448W 4637 06510 0382 -084 -189 063010 010 013 001 00
200130 2027N 08446W 4637 06508 0381 -087 -150 073010 010 017 000 00
200200 2025N 08444W 4636 06507 0380 -086 -155 058009 010 017 000 00
200230 2023N 08442W 4638 06506 0380 -085 -166 061009 010 017 000 00
200300 2020N 08440W 4637 06506 0380 -085 -160 059009 009 018 000 00
200330 2018N 08439W 4636 06505 0380 -084 -156 056008 008 018 000 00
200400 2016N 08437W 4637 06505 0380 -086 -149 062007 008 017 000 00
200430 2014N 08435W 4638 06506 0380 -087 -141 068009 009 019 000 00
200500 2012N 08433W 4637 06507 0380 -086 -144 072009 009 018 000 00
200530 2010N 08431W 4638 06505 0380 -084 -149 068008 009 017 000 00
200600 2008N 08429W 4638 06505 0380 -083 -152 060009 010 018 000 00
200630 2006N 08427W 4639 06504 0379 -083 -150 056008 009 019 000 00
200700 2004N 08425W 4638 06504 0379 -082 -147 045007 008 017 000 00
200730 2002N 08424W 4637 06505 0379 -083 -148 051007 007 017 000 00
200800 2000N 08422W 4638 06504 0379 -082 -151 055007 007 016 000 00
200830 1958N 08420W 4638 06503 0379 -081 -162 052008 008 019 000 00
200900 1956N 08418W 4638 06504 0379 -080 -162 041009 009 017 000 00
200930 1954N 08416W 4638 06503 0379 -081 -167 043009 009 018 000 00
201000 1952N 08414W 4638 06503 0378 -083 -169 046009 009 018 000 00
201030 1950N 08411W 4638 06502 0378 -084 -152 047009 009 016 000 00
201100 1949N 08409W 4638 06502 0378 -086 -146 054009 009 016 000 00
201130 1947N 08407W 4639 06503 0378 -082 -151 058010 010 017 000 00
201200 1945N 08405W 4638 06503 0378 -083 -155 061009 009 020 003 00
201230 1943N 08403W 4638 06501 0377 -084 -156 058008 009 014 001 00
201300 1941N 08401W 4640 06499 0377 -080 -159 061009 009 016 000 00
201330 1940N 08359W 4639 06500 0376 -083 -157 061008 010 018 000 00
201400 1938N 08357W 4640 06499 0376 -081 -158 062009 010 017 000 00
201430 1936N 08354W 4639 06500 0377 -080 -166 069008 009 016 002 00
201500 1934N 08352W 4640 06498 0376 -085 -170 061007 008 022 002 00
201530 1932N 08350W 4639 06497 0375 -086 -169 051008 008 017 002 00
201600 1931N 08348W 4640 06496 0374 -081 -182 049008 008 014 000 00
201630 1929N 08346W 4640 06495 0374 -077 -167 045008 009 016 000 00
201700 1927N 08344W 4639 06496 0373 -075 -162 047009 010 018 000 00
201730 1925N 08342W 4639 06498 0374 -075 -151 059007 008 021 000 00
201800 1923N 08339W 4639 06496 0374 -081 -147 057009 010 019 000 00
201830 1922N 08337W 4641 06495 0374 -078 -156 050009 011 020 000 00
201900 1920N 08335W 4640 06495 0374 -079 -175 045011 012 022 000 00
201930 1918N 08333W 4641 06496 0375 -078 -177 054013 014 023 000 00
202000 1916N 08331W 4641 06494 0373 -078 -180 052013 013 028 000 00
202030 1914N 08329W 4641 06492 0371 -080 -189 043011 011 028 000 00
202100 1912N 08327W 4640 06492 0371 -080 -215 035011 012 027 000 00
202130 1910N 08325W 4641 06489 0370 -085 -128 020012 014 026 000 00
202200 1908N 08323W 4642 06486 0368 -084 //// 018015 017 024 000 01
202230 1907N 08320W 4638 06492 0369 -083 -168 035013 014 021 000 00
202300 1905N 08318W 4640 06491 0369 -078 -120 037015 016 020 000 00
202330 1903N 08316W 4641 06488 0369 -077 -170 038015 016 021 000 00
202400 1901N 08314W 4641 06488 0369 -078 -180 037014 014 024 000 00
202430 1859N 08312W 4641 06489 0369 -078 -220 034014 015 026 000 00
202500 1858N 08310W 4640 06490 0369 -076 -259 036013 013 027 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

Robust feeded band on south side.. at the same time arc clouds racing out the NW side....

if you do a long loop that was from early this morning convection well away from the center, convection has built a long the north side now and building farther. .


Well my morning..

[cycloneye]

Is the NOAA plane a low-level or upper air flight?

Low level.

[Hammy]

What makes this more interesting is that it's going at just the right place to have continuous radar coverage from Jamaica up to landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

recon less than an hour away.

[Bad_Hurricane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 022035
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 15 20160802
202530 1856N 08308W 4642 06487 0368 -080 -271 033014 016 025 000 00
202600 1854N 08305W 4641 06488 0367 -081 -269 033014 016 025 000 00
202630 1852N 08303W 4641 06486 0366 -077 -285 029014 014 025 000 00
202700 1850N 08301W 4641 06487 0367 -074 -262 032015 016 023 000 00
202730 1848N 08259W 4642 06487 0367 -073 -222 037016 017 019 000 00
202800 1847N 08257W 4642 06485 0366 -074 -149 033017 017 019 000 00
202830 1845N 08255W 4641 06486 0367 -075 -208 028016 017 020 000 00
202900 1843N 08253W 4643 06484 0366 -075 -143 025015 015 022 000 00
202930 1841N 08251W 4641 06485 0365 -077 -197 023015 016 023 000 00
203000 1839N 08248W 4641 06484 0365 -078 -232 021014 014 022 000 00
203030 1837N 08246W 4642 06481 0363 -077 -235 017015 016 025 000 00
203100 1836N 08244W 4642 06483 0363 -077 -213 021016 016 024 000 00
203130 1834N 08242W 4641 06482 0362 -078 -262 023016 016 026 000 00
203200 1832N 08240W 4641 06483 0363 -079 -228 024017 017 027 000 00
203230 1830N 08238W 4641 06481 0362 -078 -188 029015 015 026 000 00
203300 1828N 08236W 4641 06482 0363 -082 -188 032014 015 027 000 00
203330 1826N 08233W 4641 06482 0363 -083 -194 024015 015 027 000 00
203400 1824N 08231W 4641 06481 0362 -081 -167 022015 016 027 000 00
203430 1822N 08229W 4642 06481 0362 -079 -166 025016 016 031 000 00
203500 1821N 08227W 4642 06483 0364 -082 -171 029018 018 031 000 00

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...TROPICAL STORM EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE HONDURAS BAY
ISLANDS ON ITS WAY TO BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 81.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 81.5 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track,
the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay
Islands Wednesday afternoon and then be very near the Belize
coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane
strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane
watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours
ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast
quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central
pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl
tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The
satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,
and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial
intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a
little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.

It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is
now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.
This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to
west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across
Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After
that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good
confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very
closely follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Aric Dunn]

recon descending.. 20 more minutes or so..

[BZSTORM]

Thanks to Chris's live Atlantic Recon website I see that we now have the NOAA flight and the 3rd recon in the air - 3rd recon left little over half hour ago from looks like Biloxi

[Bad_Hurricane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 022045
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 16 20160802
203530 1819N 08225W 4641 06480 0362 -080 -159 035018 019 029 000 00
203600 1817N 08223W 4643 06476 0360 -081 -127 043020 020 028 000 00
203630 1815N 08221W 4644 06472 0357 -075 -149 039021 021 029 000 00
203700 1813N 08219W 4645 06467 0355 -077 -103 036020 021 028 000 00
203730 1812N 08217W 4691 06388 0347 -074 -121 039020 021 025 000 00
203800 1810N 08215W 4897 06050 0326 -054 -145 036021 021 026 000 03
203830 1808N 08214W 5105 05724 0306 -028 -113 036023 023 026 000 00
203900 1806N 08212W 5287 05449 0290 -022 -033 039027 028 027 000 00
203930 1805N 08210W 5471 05178 0273 -009 -029 035027 027 028 000 00
204000 1803N 08208W 5647 04924 0071 +009 -024 036023 024 028 000 00
204030 1801N 08206W 5813 04691 0065 +027 -014 040029 031 026 000 00
204100 1759N 08205W 5991 04446 0062 +044 -007 048029 030 028 000 03
204130 1757N 08204W 6161 04216 0067 +056 +002 062031 033 028 000 00
204200 1754N 08203W 6331 03994 0064 +072 +006 063031 033 030 000 00
204230 1752N 08201W 6520 03750 0071 +081 +028 056025 027 031 000 03
204300 1750N 08200W 6708 03517 0076 +092 +040 060026 029 029 000 00
204330 1748N 08159W 6876 03309 0080 +102 +047 062028 030 028 000 00
204400 1746N 08158W 6945 03220 0077 +105 +061 066029 030 028 000 00
204430 1744N 08157W 6948 03216 0076 +106 +060 065029 030 026 000 00
204500 1742N 08156W 6945 03220 0076 +106 +057 062028 029 024 000 00

000
URNT11 KWBC 022049
97779 20484 30175 81818 31100 07024 10073 /3148
RMK NOAA3 WA05A EARL OB 05

[Bad_Hurricane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 022055
NOAA3 WA05A EARL HDOB 17 20160802
204530 1740N 08155W 6943 03221 0075 +108 +058 062027 028 026 000 00
204600 1738N 08154W 6943 03221 0078 +104 +063 065029 029 028 000 00
204630 1736N 08153W 6944 03217 0075 +104 +068 065029 030 034 000 00
204700 1734N 08152W 6944 03216 0071 +106 +065 065029 030 035 000 00
204730 1732N 08151W 6941 03223 0078 +101 +080 076026 028 035 000 00
204800 1731N 08151W 6957 03204 0077 +101 +086 073028 030 033 000 00
204830 1728N 08150W 6969 03190 0079 +101 +082 072027 028 034 000 00
204900 1726N 08150W 6871 03303 0078 +095 +064 067023 024 034 000 00
204930 1724N 08150W 6887 03280 0078 +094 +060 063022 022 035 000 00
205000 1722N 08150W 6957 03196 0074 +100 +063 067023 023 035 000 00
205030 1720N 08150W 6937 03222 0075 +097 +078 073023 025 035 000 00
205100 1718N 08150W 6972 03180 0076 +099 +078 070023 023 036 002 00
205130 1715N 08150W 6950 03205 0073 +100 +078 066026 027 033 001 00
205200 1713N 08150W 6944 03213 0072 +101 +077 062026 027 031 000 00
205230 1711N 08149W 6945 03211 0068 +104 +084 064030 031 028 000 00
205300 1709N 08149W 6960 03193 0069 +102 +082 061030 031 028 000 00
205330 1707N 08149W 6944 03207 0062 +102 +089 068027 029 028 000 00
205400 1704N 08149W 6954 03199 0067 +101 +089 064021 022 030 000 00
205430 1702N 08149W 6970 03179 0071 +100 +085 068022 022 028 000 00
205500 1700N 08149W 6958 03194 0067 +102 +082 065021 022 029 000 00