ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shortwave]

please don't tell me we lost aircraft communications

there are numerous ground observations.

[Airboy]

Looks like pressure droped maybe 2-3 mb since last pass.
" Extrap. Sfc. Press: 937.2 mb (27.68 inHg)".

But maybe not, it was that range before I see.

[Alyono]

cat 2 surface winds are less than 30 miles offshore

[craptacular]

please don't tell me we lost aircraft communications

They originally missed the set of obs that would have been from the center, but now I see them posted.

[stephen23]

Wave Height 21ft on west side of storm at outer eyewall

[Uhoh13]

I'm SO DONE with Bay News 9 "continuing coverage" with the same outdated information over and over again.

Agree, being a Clearwater guy, bn9 is sorely lacking.

[ncweatherwizard]

Based on 102kt FL level winds during the last transect and a few 83 kt SFMR, I'd estimate 90 kts at the surface somewhere in the outer eyewall NW quadrant.

[windnrain]

Eyewall only 15 miles from coast now.

Closing in.

[Alyono]

hurricane force gusts likely within the next 15 minutes

[Uhoh13]

What locations are facing the worst surge implications based on the current tide tables? Yes I could look it up, but I'm sure the pros already know.

[windnrain]

Now only 14 miles offshore until people are in the eye

[craptacular]

Last VDM appears to refer to a smaller inner eye again.

L. Eye Character: Open in the east, E
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)

[shawn67]

I'm just cutting and pasting this data...from the recent dropsonde. I'll let others interpret:


Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 05:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 21

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 7th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 27.5N 79.6W
Location: 62 miles (99 km) to the NNE (28°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
938mb (27.70 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 75° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 129m (423 ft) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 55° (from the NE) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 877m (2,877 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 70° (from the ENE) 5 knots (6 mph)
700mb 2,564m (8,412 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F) 60° (from the ENE) 12 knots (14 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:07Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Release Location: 27.53N 79.62W View map)
Release Time: 5:07:33Z

Splash Location: 27.53N 79.63W (
Splash Time: 5:11:25Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 938mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33236

Undecoded Remarks (Our system could not determine how to decode this text.)...

CENTER

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
938mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 27.0°C (80.6°F)
850mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F)
727mb 18.8°C (65.8°F) 15.8°C (60.4°F)
706mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
698mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
938mb (Surface) 75° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 70° (from the ENE) 5 knots (6 mph)
720mb 80° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
698mb 60° (from the ENE) 13 knots (15 mph)

[Alyono]

sustained hurricane force winds less than 10 miles from the coast. Any wobble brings them onshore now

[stephen23]

70+ mph sustained surface winds 8 miles from Stuart

[terrapintransit]

Does not look good

sustained hurricane force winds less than 10 miles from the coast. Any wobble brings them onshore now

[Andrew92]

I am really dying to see the 2 AM advisory shortly. Since the 11 PM advisory, the last position update was actually on the left side of the projected path, whereas earlier it was on the right. Probably just a wobble, but I think I notice that leftward wobble on the IR satellite loop. Or maybe my eyes are deceiving me. Once the advisory is out I am heading to bed!

-Andrew92

[Aric Dunn]

sustained hurricane force winds less than 10 miles from the coast. Any wobble brings them onshore now

does not need to wobble.. still heading nw towards the coast. will happen regardless.

[Uhoh13]

I'm just cutting and pasting this data...from the recent dropsonde. I'll let others interpret:


Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 05:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 21

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 7th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 27.5N 79.6W
Location: 62 miles (99 km) to the NNE (28°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
938mb (27.70 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 75° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 129m (423 ft) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 55° (from the NE) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 877m (2,877 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 70° (from the ENE) 5 knots (6 mph)
700mb 2,564m (8,412 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F) 60° (from the ENE) 12 knots (14 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:07Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Release Location: 27.53N 79.62W View map)
Release Time: 5:07:33Z

Splash Location: 27.53N 79.63W (
Splash Time: 5:11:25Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 938mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33236

Undecoded Remarks (Our system could not determine how to decode this text.)...

CENTER

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
938mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 27.0°C (80.6°F)
850mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F)
727mb 18.8°C (65.8°F) 15.8°C (60.4°F)
706mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
698mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
938mb (Surface) 75° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 70° (from the ENE) 5 knots (6 mph)
720mb 80° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
698mb 60° (from the ENE) 13 knots (15 mph)

Was going to ask what a dropsonde was but I googled it. Similar to the sono buoys we used in the navy. Sorry for my newbishness.

[toto]

.

Any satellite blackout tonight ??

.