SPAC: ULA - Post-Tropical

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
1512 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [989HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4
SOUTH 167.8 WEST AT 310000 UTC. POSITION FAIR.CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47KNOT WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 400HPA. TROPICAL
CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY A
NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP
YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HOURS VALID AT 311200UTC 16.3S 169.2W MOV WSW AT 8KTS WITH
50KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
AT 24 HOURS VALID AT 010000UTC 16.9S 170.8W MOV WSW AT 8KTS WITH
50KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
AT 36 HOURS VALID AT 011200UTC 17.4S 173.0W MOV WSW AT 9KTS WITH
50KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
AT 48 HOURS VALID AT 020000UTC 17.6S 175.2W MOV WSW AT 9KTS WITH
45KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 310800UTC.

[euro6208]

4.0 and 4.5 from SSD and JTWC.

TXPS23 KNES 311139
TCSWSP

A. 06P (ULA)

B. 31/1122Z

C. 15.8S

D. 169.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...AN EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN IR. EYE IS W
AND EMBEDDED IN B FOR AN E# OF 5.5. EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG RING FOR A
-1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT =4.5. MET IS 3.5 AND PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

31/0608Z 15.6S 169.0W SSMIS


...VELASCO

TPPS12 PGTW 311504

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA)

B. 31/1453Z

C. 15.90S

D. 169.69W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 5NM LG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 4.5. DBO PT AND MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/0910Z 15.40S 169.37W MMHS


UEHARA

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 151231075106
2015123106 06P ULA 003 01 250 06 SATL 010
T000 155S 1690W 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 164S 1705W 060 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 174S 1724W 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 179S 1751W 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 182S 1772W 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 190S 1793W 065 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 201S 1795E 045
T120 211S 1788E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 003
<rest omitted down to remarks>
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 169.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
CORE WITH DEEP SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED LOOP HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING
PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. A 310608Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW CAUSED BY A
POINT SOURCE OVER THE CYCLONE. TC 06P IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CREATE INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING TREND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, A
FEW MODEL TRACKERS STRUGGLE TO TRACK THE VORTEX SIGNATURE AS THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING WHICH HAS CAUSED A SLIGHT SPREAD. HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0304 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
169.5W AT 311200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS GOES EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE
YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=4.5 AND PT=4.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 16.7S 171.2W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 17.6S 173.5W MOV WSW AT 12KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 18.1S 176.1W MOV WSW AT 12KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 18.5S 178.1W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 312000UTC.

[mrbagyo]

[supercane]

As expected from the presence of an eye and Dvorak fixes, JTWC up to 90kt with peak intensity of 110kt in 24hr per latest advisory:
WTPS51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 151231194915
2015123118 06P ULA 004 01 230 05 SATL 025
T000 161S 1699W 090 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 170S 1717W 105 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 177S 1742W 110 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 181S 1767W 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 185S 1785W 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 197S 1800E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 205S 1795E 040
T120 208S 1790E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 004
<rest omitted down to remarks>
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 170.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROUGHLY 7 NM DIAMETER DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE AND A GENERALLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06P
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND MEANDER POLEWARD
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48 AND ALONG-
TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL FALL AFTER TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 120.
NUMERCIAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE
NAVGEM, GFDN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN
THE TIGHTLY-PACKED PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

The best track data in the JMV file showed intensification of 15kt in the past 6 hours and 40kt over 24hr:
0615122900 83S1747W 20
0615122906 83S1729W 25
0615122912 88S1711W 30
0615122918 93S1693W 35
0615122921 97S1684W 40
0615123000 108S1671W 45
0615123006 120S1665W 45
0615123012 143S1664W 45
0615123018 151S1671W 50
0615123100 153S1684W 50
0615123106 155S1690W 55
0615123112 158S1695W 65
0615123118 161S1699W 90

RSMC Nadi also up to hurricane status:
HURRICA WARNING 041 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 0815 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [975HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2SOUTH 169.7
WEST AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 16.2S 169.7W.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.1S 171.1W AT 010600 UTC.
AND NEAR 17.8S 174.0W AT 011800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX
PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 039.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks more like a Cat 4 despite not having an inner core yesterday.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
1202 UTC.

TRTROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [975HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.2SOUTH 169.7 WEST AT 311800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE
YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 17.1S 171.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 17.8S 174.0W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 18.1S 176.1W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 18.5S 178.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 010000UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160101071905
2016010106 06P ULA 005 01 235 12 SATL 030
T000 174S 1714W 090 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 125 SE QD 135 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 183S 1737W 095 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 190S 1760W 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 197S 1775W 090 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 206S 1786W 080 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 222S 1798W 050 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 233S 1796E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 005
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 172.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW
REFLECTIVITY BANDING SEEN IN A 010623Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION NOW LOCATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE
SYSTEM AND ELONGATING THE MOISTURE FIELD. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WESTWARD; HOWEVER, VWS WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD INTO
COLDER WATER. THESE FACTORS WILL START A WEAKENING TREND AND LEAD TO
FULL DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK
SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0247 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [968HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 172.8W AT 011200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS GOES
EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A
EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH W EYE, SURROUNDED IN LG, CMG SURROUNDING RING WITH A
BAND YIELDS DT=4.5, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 18.5S 175.0W MOV WSW AT 11 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 19.0S 176.9W MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.6S 178.3W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 20.3S 179.2W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 012000UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160101203248
2016010118 06P ULA 006 01 260 12 SATL 020
T000 182S 1740W 075 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 187S 1761W 075 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 195S 1778W 070 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 205S 1790W 060 R050 015 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 216S 1797W 045 R034 035 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 226S 1797E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 006
<rest omitted down to remarks>
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EMBEDDED CENTER FEATURE THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO A WEAK EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING SEEN IN A 011718Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS DROPPED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE
SYSTEM AND ELONGATING THE MOISTURE FIELD. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. VWS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
POLEWARD INTO COLDER WATER. THESE FACTORS WILL START A WEAKENING
TREND AND LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
2016 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [968HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S 174.3W AT 011800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR
EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A
EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PAT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 18.8S 176.2W MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 19.3S 177.8W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.9S 178.9W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 20.6S 179.7W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 020200UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0208 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [968HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 175.1W AT 020000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR
EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A
EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH B SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PAT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 19.1S 177.0W MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 20.0S 178.5W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 21.0S 179.5W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 21.9S 180 MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 020800UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160102065522
2016010206 06P ULA 007 01 260 10 SATL 030
T000 185S 1764W 085 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 193S 1783W 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 205S 1796W 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 215S 1797E 060 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 220S 1794E 045 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 225S 1792E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 007
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 31 FEET. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS INCREASING AS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN
LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISLOCATED.
THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS TC 06P SHIFTS TO A MORE SOUTHWEST-
WARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. T5.0 (90 KNOTS) DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW SUPPORTS THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
TO THE SOUTH IS APPLYING PRESSURE AGAINST THE SYSTEM AND ELONGATING
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH A RECENT SURGE OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO
PENETRATE ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. A RECENT 020427Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND INTENSIFICATION. THE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THE CORE
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ISOLATED FROM THE DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND
030900Z.//
NNNN
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0300 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.9S 177.1W AT 021200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST- OUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.MAXIMUM 10-MINUTEAVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND AND B
SURROUND RING YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS
YIELDING T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 19.7S 178.6W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 20.7S 179.7W MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 21.4S 179.7E MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 21.9S 179.3E MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ULA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 022000UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0911 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.2S 177.7W AT 021800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTEAVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN PAST 24 HOURS OVER LLCC. RAGGER
EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VIS IMAGERY. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON RAGGED EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON PT. THUS
YIELDING T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 20.0S 179.0W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 20.8S 179.9W MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 21.4S 179.7E MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 21.6S 179.6E MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC ULA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 030200UTC.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160102201206
2016010218 06P ULA 008 01 235 07 SATL 020
T000 192S 1777W 090 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 201S 1790W 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 211S 1799W 080 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 217S 1797E 070 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 219S 1794E 055 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 217S 1790E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 008
<rest omitted down to remarks>
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A LARGE, RAGGED EYE FEATURE,
AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERODE AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THIS IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON A 021438Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS. TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK
SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0218 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8S 178.9W AT 030000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN PAST 24 HOURS OVER LLCC. RAGGER
EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA IS BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A EAST-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON RAGGED EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON PT. THUS
YIELDING T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 20.7S 179.5W MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 20.8S 180 MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 21.8S 179.6E MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 21.9S 179.5E MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC ULA WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 030800UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160103070723
2016010306 06P ULA 009 01 220 09 SATL 020
T000 205S 1790W 085 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 217S 1799W 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 225S 1796E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 228S 1793E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 225S 1788E 050 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 222S 1782E 040
T096 219S 1769E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 009
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW DEGRAD-
ATION OF THE EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE COMPACT SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL DEFINED. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC ULA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
BY TAU 96. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN, THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO TAU 96 AS THE RATE OF DISSIPATION HAS
SLOWED. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFORE-
MENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0254 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.0S 179.8W AT 031200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTH SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE
PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED AND TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE NORTHEAST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG
EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON PT.
THUS YIELDING T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 22.0S 179.6E MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 22.6S 179.2E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 22.9S 179.0E MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 22.9S 179.0E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
032000 UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0908 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.6S 180 AT 031800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTH SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED AND
TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS BUT GENERAL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN
WITH DG EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT
BASED ON PT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 22.4S 179.5E MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 22.9S 179.3E MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 23.0S 179.2E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 22.8S 179.2E MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040200 UTC.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160103202758
2016010318 06P ULA 010 01 225 08 SATL 025
T000 217S 1799E 085 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 224S 1792E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 226S 1789E 070 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 226S 1787E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 226S 1785E 050 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 221S 1776E 040 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 214S 1755E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 010
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 179.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. HOWEVER, A 031853Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO WELL
DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77-102 KNOTS.
TC ULA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE,
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD.
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
1446 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 968HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 179.5 EAST AT 040000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS GOES
EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED WITH
TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS BUT GENERAL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN
WITH MG EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.5, MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT
BASED ON PT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 22.6S 179.1E MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 23.0S 178.9E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 23.2S 178.8E MOV SSW AT 02KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 23.1S 178.6E MOV SW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040800 UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160104065452
2016010406 06P ULA 011 01 225 04 SATL 030
T000 223S 1792E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 225S 1788E 060 R050 040 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 225S 1784E 050 R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 224S 1780E 045 R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 222S 1774E 040 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 217S 1757E 035
T096 215S 1740E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 011
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 179.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM SOUTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DO
TO THE INCREASE IN VWS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 70 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AN KNES REFLECT
THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS WEAKENED,
ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE WESTWARD INTO AN AREA
OF DECREASING SSTS, INCREASING VWS, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE
IMPACTS WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRACK SCENARIO WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 041331 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.7S 178.9E AT 041200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTEND.
EYE CLOUD FILLED WITH TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH DG SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 23.0S 178.5E MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 23.0S 178.2E MOV W AT 02KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 22.8S 177.7E MOV WNW AT 02KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 22.6S 176.9E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 042009 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 178.6E AT 041800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTEND.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 22.0S 178.0E MOV W AT 03KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 21.8S 177.5E MOV W AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 21.5S 176.8E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 21.1S 176.1E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042000UTC.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160104203640
2016010418 06P ULA 012 01 295 05 SATL 040
T000 220S 1781E 065 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 219S 1777E 060 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 218S 1772E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 217S 1766E 050 R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 216S 1759E 045 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 214S 1742E 035
T096 218S 1728E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 012
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 178.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DIMINISHING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED BUT STILL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE REMAINDER
OF THE SYSTEM. A 041807Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED
WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND UNCHANGED DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 06P IS BEING IMPACTED BY
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SUSTAINING THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC ULA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND IS
FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FURTHER SPREAD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE RECURVES THE SYSTEM SOUTH TO SOME
DEGREE; HOWEVER, GFS AND GFDN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
ALL MODELS SHOW THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A POLEWARD TURN. BASED ON THIS, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 050208 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.9S 178.3E AT 050000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT
03 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTEND.
CLOUDTOPS CONTINUE WARMED IN PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.0/W1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 21.8S 177.9E MOV W AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 21.7S 177.4E MOV WNW AT 02KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 21.5S 176.8E MOV WNW AT 02KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 21.1S 176.0E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
050800UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160105071050
2016010506 06P ULA 013 01 290 03 SATL 035
T000 218S 1776E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 214S 1771E 050 R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 211S 1766E 045 R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 209S 1759E 040 R034 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T048 208S 1752E 035
T072 208S 1738E 035
T096 210S 1723E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 013
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT IS PARTLY OBSCURING A STILL DEFINED,
ALBEIT RAGGED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANLYSIS INDICATES TC 06P IS BEING IMPACTED BY LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
PARTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC ULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FURTHER
SPREAD WITH COTC AS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER FAVORING A STRONGER
CYCLONE RECURVING POLEWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 051337 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S
177.5E AT 051200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 03 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY ABOUT WEST OF LLCC BUT IS
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTEND. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH. OLA IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5
WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 21.0S 177.0E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 20.8S 176.4E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 20.6S 175.7E MOV W AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 20.6S 174.9E MOV W AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
052000UTC.