SPAC: ULA - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

95P INVEST 151229 1800 9.3S 169.3W SHEM 25 998

[euro6208]

Looks like it's 99W's twin as both are opposite of the equator.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3S 169.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A
291744Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO THE
WEST, ACCORDING TO SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
PATTERN SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALOFT. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[1900hurricane]

This is already a stout tropical cyclone.

[jaguarjace]

GALE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 0934 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [997HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 169.9W AT 291900UTC.
POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL
MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO
EAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20001.txt

[wxman57]

On their website, Fiji appears to use the letters "TD" to designate something a Tropical Disturbance (not a depression), as indicated in their outlook below. That outlook was issued at 0400Z, about 5 hours before the statement above. Can't find anywhere on their website where they link to an advisory.

http://www.met.gov.fj/tc_outlook.pdf

[Yellow Evan]

This looks like a cyclone to me. What is FMS thinking?

[supercane]

WTPS21 PGTW 300100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 168.2W TO 17.1S 168.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 168.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S
169.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, PERSISTENT AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL
MILES TO THE WEST. A 292057Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THIS LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE. ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR THE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE APPROACHING THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS, AND ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW IS PRESENT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALOFT.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON ONGOING CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310100Z.//
NNNN

Latest SAB Dvorak up to 1.5
TXPS23 KNES 300045
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95P)
B. 29/2352Z
C. 10.2S
D. 167.9W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5//24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...IRREGULAR CDO MESURES SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET=1.0 WHILE PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE
CDO EDGES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...HOWELL

[Yellow Evan]

Why on earth isn't the DT of 3.0 being used?

[supercane]

Latest outlook from RSMC Nadi:
WWPS21 NFFN 300000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 1218 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 168.4W AT
292100UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. SYSTEM
LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 31
DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18
TO 36 HOURS IS HIGH.

<rest omitted, related to other disturbances in region>

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like a mid to strong level TS to me....

[Alyono]

the SSD Dvorak is 1.5 due to constraints. One of the drawbacks of the Dvorak Technique are the initial classification constraints

[NotoSans]

JTWC fix is much more reasonable this time.

TPPS12 PGTW 300637

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95P (NE OF PAGO PAGO)

B. 30/0600Z

C. 11.97S

D. 166.53W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T3.0/3.0 STT: D1.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .65 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS
(CHANGE OF 0.5 OVR 6HRS) DUE TO SYSTEM HAVING A MICROWAVE EYE
ON MORE THAN ONE IMAGE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0207Z 10.92S 166.93W SSMI
30/0328Z 11.35S 166.88W SSMS
30/0507Z 11.85S 166.58W WIND


MARTINEZ

[NotoSans]

We now have Tropical Storm Ula.

Gale Warning 029 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 2115 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [993HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0
SOUTH 167.2 WEST AT 300700 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.0S 167.2W.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT,
WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT,
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.2S 167.8W AT 301900 UTC.
AND NEAR 15.6S 168.8W AT 310700 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV
DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 027.

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300051ZDEC2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 166.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 166.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.2S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.9S 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.1S 169.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.2S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.6S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 166.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 300507Z CORIOLIS 37
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, A 292057Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS CONFIRMS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 50 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. TC 06P
IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH LIMITED, IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER
SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 300051ZDEC15 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300100).//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1057 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. Tropical cyclone (95P).

B. 30/1022Z.

C. 11.3°S.

D. 166.8°W.

E. T2.5/2.5/d1.5/24 hrs.

F. Goes-15.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center much less than 45 nm from EIR bd dg gives a DT of 3.5. MET is 1.5. Pattern t is 2.5. FT is based on dt, but held down by constraints.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0905 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE [991HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS ANALYSED NEAR
14.7S 167.1W AT 301800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/GOES IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 400HPA. TROPICAL
CYCLONE ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY A
NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP
YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HOURS VALID AT 310600UTC 15.7S 168.4W MOV SW AT 8KTS WITH 45KTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
AT 24 HOURS VALID AT 311800UTC 16.4S 169.9W MOV WSW AT 8KTS WITH
45KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
AT 36 HOURS VALID AT 010600UTC 17.1S 171.7W MOV WSW AT 8KTS WITH
45KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
AT 48 HOURS VALID AT 011800UTC 17.6S 174.1W MOV WSW AT 9KTS WITH
40KTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 310200UTC.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 151230191935
2015123018 06P ULA 002 01 205 21 SATL 020
T000 153S 1671W 050 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 167S 1686W 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 173S 1700W 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 177S 1720W 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 179S 1749W 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 181S 1777W 065 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 186S 1788W 055
T120 195S 1799E 045
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 002
<omitted down to remarks>
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 167.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
WITH A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST BUT WELL-DEFINED IN THE 301732Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND
NFFN AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST
HAS ASSUMED STEERING AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR
TC 06P. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC ULA WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UP TO 75 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENIDNIG HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//

[Yellow Evan]

What is the CPHC thinking here? I'm getting a T4.0. Even that may be an underestimate, as this likely around 70-75 knots IMO

TXPS41 PHFO 301658
TCSSP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1645 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Ula (95P).

B. 30/1622Z.

C. 15.3°S.

D. 167.3°W.

E. T2.5/2.5/d1.5/24 hrs.

F. Goes-15.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: A 0.70 wrap yields a DT of 3.0. MET is 2.5 and Pat is 3.0. Due to constraints, FT is 2.5 and based on met.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Eaton.

[mrbagyo]

Pretty impressive convection just a few hours ago. It might still ramp up quickly if it manages to build a stable CDO.

[Yellow Evan]

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2247 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Ula (95P).

B. 30/2222Z.

C. 15.5°S.

D. 168.3°W.

E. T3.0/3.0/d1.5/24 hrs.

F. Goes-15.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: A 0.80 wrap yields a DT of 3.5. MET and Pat are 3.0. Due to constraints and based on MET and Pat, FT is 3.0.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Eaton.

Still no CPHC.