SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON

[mrbagyo]

Looks like this one might spin up in the coming days... it really looks broad and disorganized in the meantime on latest sat imagery.
98P INVEST 160206 1200 5.8S 179.5E SHEM 15 1008
98P Floater

[Darvince]

Saved loop:

[Darvince]

Convection has died down a lot since yesterday, but vorticity is on the increase:

[stormwise]

98P is consolidating models ramp this system up.

[stormwise]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 110201 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.2E
AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC.
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER HIGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEANFLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 17.1S 171.8E MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 18.5S 172.3E MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 20.2S 172.9E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 21.9S 173.8E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 110800 UTC.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 2 issued 0157 UTC Thursday 11 February 2016

[Darvince]

Rapid consolidation and possible RIing seems definitely in the picture to me. It may well exceed strength forecasts:

[stormwise]

This system may explode conditions will dramatically improve.



Thanks to levi Cowan http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Darvince]

Pretty.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPS11 PGTW 120256

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON)

B. 12/0220Z

C. 18.11S

D. 171.58E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET AND PT
YIELD 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/2144Z 17.68S 171.58E MMHS


HART

[stormwise]

Thinking 110-115 now, and likely a Cat5 brewing. Most of the ensembles track this system off to the SE and washing out without
any land contact.

[cycloneye]

Really impressive with that very small eye.110kts at 18z.

11P WINSTON 160212 1800 20.8S 171.5E SHEM 110 941

[1900hurricane]

The poleward of 20*N/S rule of thumb works really well in the Southern Hemisphere. Pretty much as soon as Winston moved south of 20*S, it began degrading. There's no way JTWC's forecast of 130 kt within 24 hours verifies.

Random fun fact, my family's dog shares its name with this tropical cyclone.

[stormwise]

Very Gnarly looking cyclone this one.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... he_day.asp

Date (mmddhhmm): 02122125
SATCON: MSLP = 937 hPa MSW = 120 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 118.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 110 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 220 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 942 hPa 115 knots Scene: CDO Date: FEB122130
CIMSS AMSU: 930 hPa 124 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 02122125
SSMIS: 935 hPa 113 knots Date: 02121809
CIRA AMSU: CRP hPa CRW knots Date: CRD

[stormwise]

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WINSTON
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:09am on Monday the 15th of February 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FULAGA, OGEA, NAMUKA, KABARA,
KOMO AND MOCE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS SOUTHERN VITI LEVU, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE [972HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.1 SOUTH 178.7 EAST OR ABOUT 465KM SOUTHWEST OF
ONO-I-LAU OR ABOUT 570KM SOUTH OF KADAVU AT 6AM TODAY . THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 24KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE
CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 120KM/HR AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 170KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 235KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR ABOUT 465KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU
AT 6PM TODAY AND ABOUT 90KM SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU OR ABOUT 460KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 6AM TOMORROW.

DAMAGING WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR ONO-I-LAU AND VATOA:
WINDS STRENGTHENING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF
100KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 150KM/HR FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEAS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.


FOR FULAGA, OGEA, NAMUKA, KABARA, KOMO AND MOCE:
WINDS STRENGTHENING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF
75KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 100KM/HR FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEAS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR SOUTHERN VITI LEVU, THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU, NORTHERN LAU AND
LOMAIVITI GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS INCREASING
TO STRONG WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 45KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF
80KM/HR FROM THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS AND SOUTHERN KORO SEA:
EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 55 KNOTS AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. VERY
HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.


FOR KADAVU PASSAGE, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS, NORTHERN KORO SEA AND
NORTHERN LAU WATERS:
WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS FROM TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH FROM
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED AT 11AM TODAY OR EARLIER.

[stormwise]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 150755 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.8 SOUTH 179.5 WEST AT 150600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT
IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 11 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 190 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,

WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,

AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT ABOUT EAST OF LLCC.
ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT. CI HELD HIGHER DUE TO WEAKENING TREND. THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 20.3S 178.1W MOV NE AT 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.1S 176.8W MOV NE AT 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 18.2S 175.5W MOV ENE AT 8KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 17.6S 174.5W MOV ENE AT 08KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 151400 UTC.

[stormwise]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 151923 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.1 SOUTH 177.2 WEST AT 151800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT
IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 14 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE

AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE

AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC AND HAS FLARED
UP IN PAST 6 HOURS . ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
EAST. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE SOUTHWEST DEEP
LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS
DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.0S 175.8W MOV NE AT 09KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 18.2S 174.6W MOV ENE AT 07KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 17.6S 173.6W MOV NE AT 06KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.1S 173.1W MOV NE AT 04KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 160200 UTC.

[stormwise]

00z/HWRF deepens Winston into 916mb, catastrophic system.

[Darvince]

bye tonga

[stormwise]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NUMBER ELEVEN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON ISSUED
FROM THE FUA'AMOTU TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE AT 10:15PM TUESDAY 16 FEBRUARY 2016.
....................................................................................................

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR VAVAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU,'EUA,HA'APAI,NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU.

A HEAVY DAMAGING SWELL WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL TONGA COASTAL WATERS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U.

SITUATION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7SOUTH AND 174.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40KM WEST OF HUNGA OR 60KM
WEST OF NEIAFU AT 8:00PM TONIGHT.THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26KM/HR(14KNOTS).
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK,THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE 30KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NEIAFU AT ABOUT 01:00AM TOMORROW MORNING
(17/02/2016).NEAR ITS CENTRE,THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AN AVERAGE WINDS SPEED OF 95KM/HR(50KNOTS) WITH MOMENTARY
GUST OF 130KM/HR(70KTS).

FOR HA'APAI, TONGATAPU AND 'EUA:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 65-85KM/HR(35-45KNOTS) AND MOMENTARY GUST TO 120KM/HR(65KTS).
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. A HEAVY
DAMAGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OVER HA'APAI, INCLUDING SEAS FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR VAVAU:
DESTRUCTIVE EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 95KM/HR(50 KNOTS) AND MOMENTARY
GUST TO 130KM/HR(70KTS).PERIODS OF RAIN,HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. A HEAVY DAMAGING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL DEVELOPING,AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDING SEAS FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR NIUAS:
DAMAGING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 65-70KM/HR(35-40KTS) FROM MID-NIGHT TONIGHT.OCCASSIONAL SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. A HEAVY DAMAGING WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL DEVELOPING MID-NIGHT TONIGHT.

TIDE PREDICTIONS:

HIGH TIDE : 02:40AM TOMORROW MORNING (17/02/2016)
LOW TIDE : 08:45AM TOMORROW MORNING (17/02/2016)

THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT LUPEPAU'U AIRPORT (VAVA'U) AT 10:00PM WAS 984.7 MILLIBARS AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WAS 99%.

THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 01:00AM THIS MORNING (17/02/2016)

http://www.met.gov.to/index_files/routine_forecast.txt