SIO: FANTALA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

99S INVEST 160410 0600 12.1S 75.6E SHEM 15 1010

[cycloneye]

GFS and ECMWF are very bullish on 99S to form a very strong cyclone.

[cycloneye]

Low chance at 4/10/16 at 18Z.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 74.7E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 101426Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE FLARING CONVECTION AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

The 12z model tracks.

[cycloneye]

Looks to be organizing in a steady way.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 162
WTIO20 FMEE 110634
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/04/2016
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/04/2016 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 72.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS REACHING
LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT UP TO 100
NM FROM THE CENTER.
STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2016/04/11 AT 18 UTC:
12.7 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2016/04/12 AT 06 UTC:
12.4 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Medium by JTWC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
74.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. A 110136Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC WITH
SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER. A 101609Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTXS21 PGTW 111300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 72.8E TO 12.7S 67.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111230Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 72.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
72.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 72.2E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. A 111005Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 110408Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[1900hurricane]

I'd classify this now.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Moderate Storm Fantala.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 395
WTIO30 FMEE 111840 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 71.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 40 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 90
34 KT NE: SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/12 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/04/12 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/04/13 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/04/13 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/04/14 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/04/14 18 UTC: 12.1 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/15 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/04/16 18 UTC: 11.3 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[1900hurricane]

Decent structure.

[stormwise]

Decent radial outflow on this system, Latest EC run had a mid 950 mb fish.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Latest warning at 18 UTC intensifies Fantala.Track remains the same but a tad slower at longer range.To see if landmasses will be affected or not we may have to wait for Sunday or Monday it seems according to this track forecast.


CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20152016 1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FANTALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/04/2016 : DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 68.8 E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) : 28 KT NE: 70 SE: 170 SO: 200 NO: 170 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 100 NO: 90 48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS : 12H: 13/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL 24H: 13/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 36H: 14/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 48H: 14/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 60H: 15/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 72H: 15/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE: 96H: 16/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 120H: 17/04/2016 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

[Yellow Evan]

The JTWC has been on a roll lately.

TPXS10 PGTW 122103

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA)

B. 12/2100Z

C. 12.78S

D. 68.39E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT BOTH YIELD A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

LEMBKE

[1900hurricane]

Here we go.

[cycloneye]

The latest warning by Meteo-France.No change to track until next Monday.Winds at 80kts but will go up 105kts as peak.

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/8/20152016 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FANTALA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/04/2016 : DANS UN RAYON DE 5 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 66.0 E (DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES ZERO EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 963 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) : 28 KT NE: 80 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 100 34 KT NE: 70 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80 48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50 64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS : 12H: 14/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 24H: 14/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX=100 KT,

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 36H: 15/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 48H: 15/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX=115 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 60H: 16/04/2016 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 72H: 16/04/2016 12 UTC: 12.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE: 96H: 17/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 120H: 18/04/2016 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE

[1900hurricane]

Undergoing eyewall replacement at the moment.