SIO: FANTALA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Latest warning at 18 UTC by Meteo France. Track is the same except at the end by Sunday when it turns to the south.Winds are at 80kts with higher gusts.

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/8/20152016 1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FANTALA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/04/2016 : DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 65.2 E (DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST) DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA 5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) : 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 130 48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90 64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS : 12H: 14/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL 24H: 14/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 36H: 15/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 48H: 15/04/2016 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 60H: 16/04/2016 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 72H: 16/04/2016 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE: 96H: 17/04/2016 18 UTC: 10.7 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 120H: 18/04/2016 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICA

[stormwise]

EC significant waves+swell along the northern coastline .

[stormwise]

Excellent core structure.

[1900hurricane]

Until dry air works its way in, that is.

[stormwise]

As the ridge moves further east in a few days and the cyclone turns poleward we may see another impressive RI.

[stormwise]

Easing shear and the hurricane is looking better.

[cycloneye]

Latest track.

[stormwise]

EC ensemble mean landfalls as a much weakened storm, Deterministic run landfalls as TD or weaker.

[1900hurricane]

This is certainly a pretty intense storm. Meteosat-7 has a great angle on it too.

[NotoSans]

TPXS10 PGTW 171229

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA)

B. 17/1200Z

C. 10.26S

D. 51.66E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET AND PT YIELD 7.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART

JTWC has it at 140 knots at 12Z.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, Fantala is probably about as intense as Winston was at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely 160 at this point. Nearing Winston levels.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is at 150 kt for 18Z.

[cycloneye]

Wow,small mesovortices.

[Exalt]

Considering its gorgeous satellite presentation, symmetry, and how cleaned out that eye is now, I would pin it at at least 185 mph (1 min. sustained), the 175 estimates seem a bit conservative for how great this storm looks.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave presentations don't get too much better than this.

[Yellow Evan]

It's persistence is really alarming. This has kept its CMG ring for almost a day now, and recently has developed a CDG ring. The eye is exceptionally warm, with a NOAA satellite per MFR measuring 23.4C. Nevertheless, CI values are T7.5 from most agencies, yet MFR has a Data T number of T7.0, so I doubt this is any stronger than 165 knots but if the CDG can thicken in the next hour or so, 170 is possible. An ERC is likely to begin tomorrow per microwave, and Fantala is likely to curve back to the southeast as it slow, both will lead to upwelling. This is as close as I've ever seen to a T8.0 in this basin. As if we haven't seen enough of these types of systems lately

[TheEuropean]

Hello, I can't find any other tropical cyclone in the southern indian ocean that was as strong an Fantala is. Can someone confirm this? Strongest cyclone since records began? I searched here:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/

[terstorm1012]

this is a gorgeous cyclone, and I too can't find anything stronger in the SIO.

[HurricaneBill]

Hello, I can't find any other tropical cyclone in the southern indian ocean that was as strong an Fantala is. Can someone confirm this? Strongest cyclone since records began? I searched here:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/

Cyclone Daryl-Agnielle in November 1995 also peaked at 150KT (1-min).