Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

It's officially a deep depression, not a TC yet. If we don't go with the official designation for all basins, then we'll often be debating what classification to use. Note that JTWC is not the official agency for any basin.

should we give IMD any legitimacy?

Unless you want to designate S2K as the official RSMC for all basins.

we'd do a better job than IMD, lol

[stormwise]

If not already this system will be @64knts before a name is allocated.

[Alyono]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... =composite

easterly shear. However, this would mean lower shear farther north as it moves under the upper ridge. Probably why the models are intensifying this significantly as it nears Bangladesh

[stormwise]

Earlier pass's

[Yellow Evan]

That plus radar supports that idea that this is easily 65 knots+.

[Alyono]

not 65 kts. However, there IS a shallow convection ring that has formed. This usually means RI will soon happen. Should be 65 kts in about 12 hours

[stormwise]

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘ROANU’ ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 19TH MAY 2016 BASED
ON 0300 UTC CHARTS OF 19TH MAY 2016.
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘ROANU’ OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS
AT A SPEED OF 15 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 19TH MAY, 2016 NEAR LATITUDE 15.6º N AND LONGITUDE 81.6 ºE, ABOUT 80 KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST
OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185), ABOUT 290 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM
(43149) & 160 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAKINADA (43189). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG AND OFF ANDHRA PRADESH COAST DURING NEXT 12 HOURS,
THEREAFTER NORTHEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM BY TONIGHT. CONTINUING MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CROSS
SOUTH BANGLADESH COAST BETWEEN KHEPUPARA (41984) AND COX’S BAZAR (41992) IN THE NIGHT OF
21ST & EARLY MORNING OF 22ND MAY AS A CYCLONIC STORM.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
ANDHRA PRADESH ADJOINING TELANGANA, SOUTH ODISHA AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
BETWEEN LATITUDE 12.00
TO 20.0°N & WEST OF LONGITUDE 88.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -93
0 C. THE SATELLITE CLOUD IMAGERIES SHOWS CLOUD DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) PATTERN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992HPA.

[Alyono]

looking at the models, this may not do too much today. Models are not showing intensification until this moves into the northern BOB

[Alyono]

weakened some today. However, the low level structure remains very well organized. This likely will start to intensify within the next 12 hours and may do so until landfall near the Delta

May need massive evacuations as even a 60 kt storm can kill tens of thousands as what happened in 1985

[wxman57]

Looks like the center may be almost on the coast - beneath the blow-up of squalls:

[1900hurricane]

The most recent convective blowup contains some exceptionally cold tops. Black pixels indicate temperatures of -100*C or colder.

[Alyono]

not that impressed. No structure on the radar

give it 12 hours

HWRF sure has trended stronger

[stormwise]

Roanu looks in RI, sat presentation now displaying warming within a eyewall.

[Darvince]

I think it just made landfall, as shown by the JSL:

[Alyono]

no landfall.

Starting to wonder if this will not intensify at all. Would be GREAT news. Maybe only a Mahasen type storm

[Alyono]

convection collapsing again. Not sure this will have the time to properly organize.

Did read something a couple of days ago that once a CCC pattern takes shape in the BOB, it is over in terms of intensification. I wasn't ready to commit to that in real time. However, if this does nothing before landfall, this will be something to carefully consider going forward for the future

[Alyono]

for the first time, convection is actually firing near the center.

12Z MU is showing a symmetric storm at landfall

[wxman57]

No tropical storm-force winds on the ASCAT image from 15Z. It could have some small areas of 35kt winds, but it's not a 50kt storm.

[Alyono]

Uh oh. Ri may be underway

[cycloneye]

Definitly looks much better now.